Analyzing the Gophers' Chances of Getting a Big Ten Win

The Golden Gophers basketball team hit the two-thirds mark of the Big Ten season without a win Wednesday night when their comeback against the Michigan Wolverines fell short. It was another difficult late-game loss for Minnesota, who has let their first conference win slip away on numerous occasions. They now have eight Big Ten losses by single digits.

Like it or not, the Gophers’ losing streak – now spanning 57 days – has actually made the regular season more intriguing. Can they avoid the infamy of a winless season?

There are six games left in the regular season, so let’s see what lies ahead for Richard Pitino’s team and break down their chances of getting that elusive victory.

Feb. 14 @ #4 Iowa

Just like they did in college football this year, the Iowa Hawkeyes have come out of nowhere as a legitimate Big Ten title contender and a potential No. 1 seed in the tournament. They’re 19-4 with a 10-1 conference record – their only loss to highly-ranked Maryland. The Hawkeyes haven’t lost a home game yet this season.

Even though the Gophers can lean on last season’s upset win at Carver-Hawkeye Arena as motivation, it’s not realistic that they’ll be able to win in that hostile environment with this young group. Iowa has too much to play for, and the Gophers too frequently play bad first halves on the road.

Arbitrary Percent Chance of a Gophers Win: 10 percent

Feb. 18 vs #2 Maryland

At 22-3 (10-2), Maryland may be a class above Iowa. While the Hawkeyes have a cohesive, veteran roster, the Terrapins have more blue-chip talent. They retained Melo Trimble after his impressive freshman season, they added standout freshman center Diamond Stone, and they acquired senior Rasheed Sulaimon via transfer from Duke.

The hope for the Gophers is that Maryland comes into Williams Arena already looking ahead to their rematch with Michigan, who dealt them their first Big Ten loss in January. The Terps do have two conference road losses this season, which could make them vulnerable if the Gophers stay in the game long enough to get The Barn energized.

Everything would have to go right, though, for Minnesota to knock off this giant.

Arbitrary Percent Chance of a Gophers Win: 7 percent

Feb. 23 vs Rutgers

Believe it or not, there’s another winless Big Ten team. Yes, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights may be one of the few teams with an uglier-looking résumé than the Gophers. They are 0-11 in the Big Ten with seven losses by 20 points or more, including a 50-point blowout at home against Purdue. Unless they’re able to beat Penn State at home on Feb. 20, there’s a good chance this game between Minnesota and Rutgers pits two 0-14 teams against each other that couldn’t be more desperate for a win.

It seems like Minnesota has the edge on their home floor considering that Rutgers has barely been competitive in the Big Ten season.

Arbitrary Percent Chance of a Gophers Win: 65 percent

Feb. 28 @ Illinois

If the losing streak extends beyond Rutgers, then Minnesota gets another winnable game at Illinois, though the Illini could be bolstered by the emotions of senior night in Champaign. The Gophers let their last game with Illinois slip away when they blew a five-point lead in the closing 65 seconds of regulation and lost in overtime at Williams Arena.

The Illini have not had a good year, however. Their only quality Big Ten win came against a ranked Purdue team. Other than that, they’ve needed overtime to beat winless Minnesota and triple overtime to beat winless Rutgers – one of the few games Rutgers has been remotely close to winning.

Illinois will be favored in the game, but the Gophers should be able to stick with them into the second half.

Arbitrary Percent Chance of a Gophers Win: 40 percent

Mar. 2 vs Wisconsin

It’ll be the final home game for Joey King and Carlos Morris, but unfortunately they may have to look up to a sea of red as Badger fans swamp the arena.

After seemingly going into freefall following Bo Ryan’s sudden retirement and getting off to a 1-4 Big Ten start, the Badgers have rebounded to win six straight. At 15-9 (7-4), they now boast a palatable NCAA tournament résumé, but they won’t be able to afford any slip-ups – like a loss to lowly Minnesota in their final regular season game.

Percent Chance of a Gophers Win: 15 percent

Mar. 5 @ Rutgers

Could it all come down to this? If the Gophers don’t get past Rutgers the first time around, all bets are off in the rematch to end the season. If Minnesota is 0-17, this will be a dogfight of survival. Blood, sweat and tears will be left on the court in front of a likely-sparse Scarlet Knights crowd.

This feels like a 50/50 proposition.

Percent Chance of a Gophers Win: 50 percent

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