Twins

Warne: Devising the Perfect Brian Dozier Trade

Executives, agents and media have converged on National Harbor for the yearly offseason MLB Winter Meetings. From there, a lot of teams will map out the path their offseasons will take. For some teams, that path has already started. For some, it’ll take a sharp turn with a big move or the groundwork at least set up for one.

A lot of what comes out of the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center will be hot air. That’s part of the deal. There’ll be buzz put out by agents and teams about a player that might be half-true at best, but that’s all a part of doing business. Agents want to get their players paid. Teams want to get the most for their players in a trade.

It just makes sense.

The Minnesota Twins have done their part to stoke the flames a bit over the past week or so. It started with the Twins saying they’d need to be “wowed” to move second baseman Brian Dozier.

That progressed to GM Thad Levine telling season ticket holders in a recent call that the team would have to be really inspired to move Dozier in a deal.

Now the latest from Monday morning came courtesy of CBO Derek Falvey on Sirius/XM radio.

Sometime between the second and third tweets listed I tweeted that this sounds like the process of letting fans down gently before trading a beloved player. Only time will tell if there’s just smoke or if there’s fire, but it isn’t hard to find people in the media who believe Dozier could be on the move.

For their part, the alleged teams who could be in on Dozier are playing their part as well. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Monday that the Los Angeles Dodgers have shown some interest in former Twins farmhand Yangervis Solarte as the San Diego Padres are tearing things down to the studs — literally. Rosenthal framed it as potential to replace Justin Turner if he were to depart via free agency, but also teased that second base could be an option. Outside of third base, Solarte’s most-played position in the big leagues — 61 games, just under 400 innings — is second base. Solarte played most second base — nearly 3,000 innings — than any other position in the minors.

In a way, that could be construed as the Dodgers telling the Twins they have other options at second base, perhaps driving the cost of Dozier down a little through the media.

It’s legitimately questionable if the Arizona Diamondbacks would have interest in Dozier. In a recent chat on his personal page, ESPN’s Keith Law asked why the team would have interest in Dozier in the first place. That would seem to suggest that he thinks or has perhaps heard the team would prefer to stick with Chris Owings at second base. I’m a little less convinced, given that Ketel Marte — the team’s newly-acquired shortstop from Seattle — will most likely need more seasoning in the minors. That’ll shift Owings to short and leave a hole at second base.

There are a couple additional layers here. Brandon Drury played some second base for the Diamondbacks last season. He’s one of their better young hitters, but it’s unclear if they’d want him to play second base regularly. He only played 82 innings there last year and the metrics don’t look at that time fondly. Beyond that, it’s understandable that the Diamondbacks would value Owings as a member of the team, but he’s a career .254/.294/.376 hitter. It’s not impossible to upgrade on that.

So let’s assume those would be the teams most interested in Dozier. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim reportedly have interest — as do a handful of teams, per various reports — but it’s pretty hard to find a trade fit there, unless they sign a pitcher and could afford to move one of their others, as was hinted at the end of a recent piece by Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.  

Even still, it’s unclear how much interest the Twins would have in Matt Shoemaker or Tyler Skaggs, the two pitchers Fletcher mentioned. Shoemaker has been inconsistent at his worst and probably a No. 2 starter at his best, and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season. He’s got a career 3.75 ERA that is right in line with his 3.76 career FIP. Skaggs was a top prospect with the Diamondbacks who was traded back in 2013 in a wild deal that included current Twins left-hander Hector Santiago. His MLB numbers are shaky — as they are with most young pitchers — but his health is as well. He missed the entire 2015 season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery.   

As we’ve noted before, it probably makes more sense for the Angels to sign Trevor Plouffe and move Yunel Escobar to second base — assuming he’s willing. They’ve also been rumored to have interest in Stephen Drew, who had a career revival (.864 OPS) as a part-time player for the Washington Nationals last season. The Twins surely won’t close the door on a deal with the Angels, but for our purposes here, we will.

So what does the perfect trade look like from each team from the Twins’ perspective? If reading this as a Dodgers or Diamondbacks fan, keep in mind that we don’t hold the keys here. We’re simply falling in lockstep with the idea that the Twins would have to be “wowed” to move Dozier, so if a deal seems unfair or unreasonable, so be it.  

One of my more unpopular opinions is that the Twins should target a position player no matter whom they trade with. Or perhaps more accurately, they should focus on talent rather than being shoehorned into the idea that they need to improve just their pitching staff. Trading Dozier shifts Jorge Polanco over to second base most likely, and leaves a hole at short that would ostensibly be filled by Eduardo Escobar, who is coming off a tough season in his own right. Basically speaking, that leaves a possible hole at short, and potentially one in the outfield and at DH. Targeting a DH as a primary trade chip simply isn’t going to happen, though that’s not to say they couldn’t get one as a throw-in to the deal.

With the Diamondbacks, it makes the most sense to target Drury and right-handed pitcher Archie Bradley. Drury was primarily a left fielder for the Diamondbacks in 2016, and hit a solid .282/.329/.458 in 134 games as a 23-year-old. The Diamondbacks have only been around since 1998, but just four 23 year olds have had better offensive seasons than Drury in club history: Justin Upton, Drew, Mark Reynolds and Travis Lee. Grabbing a 23-year-old who can hold his own as a big-league hitter would be huge. So too would be pairing him with Bradley, who has struggled in the big leagues (5.18 ERA/4.27 FIP in 177.1 innings) but is just 24 and has the stuff and frame to pitch for a long, long time. As Mike Berardino said on last week’s episode of Midwest Swing, take a look at some of the greatest pitchers of our time. Guys like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine got crushed early in their careers. It’s by no means a death sentence.  

LISTEN: Berardino breaks down potential Dozier trade scenarios with Brandon and Tom on Midwest Swing   

If the Diamondbacks resist, it’s worth considering adding Taylor Rogers to the deal.

That tweet seems like classic posturing by a team, though again we still can’t be entirely sure the Diamondbacks would be in on Dozier. With that said, Rogers has five years of club control and has appeared on some of the sabermetrics-savvy “spin rate” lists recently. Levine told MLB.com at the GM Meetings that the team would consider dealing bullpen arms if it made sense. Here, it might.

If the Diamondbacks resist those overtures — and again, we’re looking for the perfect trade so we aren’t going to drift too far off course, here — then interest should shift from Drury to David Peralta. Peralta, who’ll be 29 for virtually the entire 2017 season, is under club control through 2020 and is essentially the player Eddie Rosario dreams to be. He’s hit .292/.341/.481 through 285 MLB games, and that includes a tough 2016 season (.728 OPS) where he battled wrist injuries. If he can pass a physical, he can be part of a deal with Bradley and a third piece. An interesting third piece we’d submit is Peter O’Brien, who is 26 and without a position or much of a future with the DBacks. O’Brien is coming off a down season — .254/.295/.505 in the PCL — but has tremendous raw power and could make sense as a future DH for the Twins.

In essence, it boils down to:

  • Trade A: Drury and Bradley
  • Trade B: Peralta, Bradley and O’Brien

The other team to examine is the Dodgers, who clearly have interest and from day one have seemed to be the odds-on favorite for a landing spot should Dozier be moved. They have the prospects to get a deal done, and are also looking to stay in contention while not adding a ton of payroll.

I’ve gotten a lot of questions about Julio Urias and have to be honest — there’s just no way. The Twins can covet him all they want, but a 20-year-old lefty with not only big-league experience but success isn’t moving in a deal short of acquiring someone like Bryce Harper, Mike Trout or someone of the ilk.

Jose De Leon’s name comes up frequently, and it’s easy to see why. In four seasons in the Dodgers minor-league system, De Leon has a 3.35 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and a WHIP of 1.13. De Leon made his MLB debut this season and got hit hard — five home runs in 17 innings — but again it’s important to retain perspective. This was a 24-year-old kid making his first rounds in the big leagues. Like with Jose Berrios — and to a lesser extent — it’s far too early to sound any alarms of concern. With that said, Berardino had previously raised some concerns about his shoulder, which are never good. Still, if Twins doctors clear him, he’d be in the deal.

On the position player side of things, Cody Bellinger is atop the list. Bellinger is coming off a strong run in the Arizona Fall League, and could play outfield until first base opens up. Then again, that’s sort of the plan with the Dodgers as well, as Adrian Gonzalez is nearing the end of a solid career. Bellinger hit .263/.359/.484 at Double-A last season before getting a three-game cup of coffee at Triple-A Oklahoma City, and is just 21 years old. He’s very close to the big leagues.

Another option would be to take a chance on the Yasiel Puig Bounce Back Tour. Puig, who has two years left on his deal at roughly $17.4 million, is coming off hitting just .263/.323/.416 in 104 games with the Dodgers. So fed up with his antics were the Dodgers, who sent him to Triple-A Oklahoma City for a 19-game stint where he did what any solid MLB player would do at that level — mash. He had an OPS of .994 down there and upon returning looked a lot more like the Puig of old — .281/.338/.561.

In this case, it probably boils down to:

  • Trade A: De Leon and Bellinger
  • Trade B: De Leon and Puig

There’s plenty of room to make a deal elsewhere — involving Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Gavin Lux or Jordan Sheffield — but these two seem like the most likely in this “shoot-for-the-moon” type of scenario.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments!

 

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