Twins

Warne: Finding a Trevor Plouffe Landing Spot

We like to keep tabs on players who have played for the Minnesota Twins, and the more recently, the better. With that in mind, why not take a look at possible landing places for free-agent third baseman Trevor Plouffe?

Plouffe’s tenure with the Twins wrapped up following the 2016 season with a career batting line of .247/.308/.420 over seven seasons. Plouffe has played all over the diamond, but most recently played first and third base as well as DH’ing a bit. He’s a fairly good defensive third baseman when healthy and appeared to be at least competent at first. It’s unclear if any team would give him a shot in the outfield again, as it seems he has the first-step quickness to play third base but not necessarily the sustained speed to chase down balls in the gaps in left or right field.

The 30-year-old Plouffe has hit lefties well in his career — .268/.344/.465 — and should provided some right-handed thump off someone’s bench or in a super-utility role if he can’t find a starting spot. Complicating things is that Plouffe may have to wait for guys like Chris Coghlan and Luis Valbuena to sign before his market heats up. A similarly-talented David Freese — with an established playoff acumen as well, if you like — didn’t sign until mid-March with the Pirates this last offseason. Plouffe would probably like to ultimately follow a similar path; while Freese had to settle for a one-year deal in free agency, he was rewarded for his efforts with a two-year extension that includes a third-year team option.

Long-term security will be hard to come by for Plouffe this winter, but another year like 2014 or ‘15 could put him squarely back on the radar as a pretty good third baseman.

Let’s take a look at some of the factors that’ll determine where Plouffe may land:

Geography

Plouffe is a California native, so there’s no shortage of teams for him to choose from if he wants to stay in his home state.

  • Oakland – Few teams mix-and-match starters like the A’s do, and Plouffe could provide them with Danny Valencia, 2.o with no threat of clubhouse issues. Between first and third base, Oakland could use some help — at the right price. This could be a good fit.
  • San Francisco – As of right now it looks like the Giants will go with former Twin Eduardo Nunez at third base, but Plouffe is an intriguing fit here, too. He could also play some first base if the Giants want to use Brandon Belt in the outfield more — something that maybe isn’t terribly likely.
  • Los Angeles (A) – This has seemed like the obvious fit from the get go, but the team traded for Danny Espinosa to play second, limiting the need to move Yunel Escobar to second and open third for Plouffe. There’s still room on this roster for offensive help, though.
  • Los Angeles (N) – Justin Turner resigning makes this less likely, but this is another team that can mix-and-match bats with the best of them. Turner has played a lot of second base in the past, too, if the Dodgers would want to go down that road.
  • San Diego – Not a likely fit here, as the Padres are in the process of gutting their big-league roster and already have former Twins farmhand Yangervis Solarte — whom they’d like to move — at third base.

Teams with Poor 3B Production Last Season

Now there’s some room for gripe here, because it’s worth wondering what team would target Plouffe if their third-base production sagged last year. So did Plouffe’s. But just indulge the bit for a second, as Plouffe is a classic buy-low candidate — based on his contract status and that he was injured for much of last season — who should not only provide value, but require only a short-term commitment contract-wise. A contract-year Plouffe is bound to be pretty good as long as his body cooperates.

In a down year, Plouffe had a 91 wRC+ mark. These are the six teams who got worse production from their third basemen last season (via Fangraphs):

  • San Francisco (90 wRC+) – Again, they have Nunez as an in-house option. Nunez wasn’t wildly productive with the Giants — .269/.327/.418 — but his 100 wRC+ with the team still moved the needle forward from the likes of Ruben Tejada and Conor Gillaspie, who filled in after Matt Duffy went down for an extended stretch. As an insurance policy and depending on how much they’d move him around, Plouffe could fit in San Fran.  
  • New York (A) (90 wRC+) – The Yankees still owe Chase Headley $26 million, so don’t count on it. Headley is a switch hitter who hasn’t had any more trouble with lefties than righties over his career, so a fit here doesn’t make a ton of sense.
  • Kansas City (89 wRC+) – This is solely because Mike Moustakas collided with Alex Gordon and was lost for the season early last year. Not happening.
  • Atlanta (86 wRC+) – This is an interesting fit, as the Braves appear to be trying to pry their contention window open with the acquisitions of Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia, and subsequently do have a bit of a hole at third base. Adonis Garcia played at a level relatively comparable to Plouffe last season, but is going on 32 years old.
  • Cincinnati (86 wRC+) – Team is in process of a rebuild. Don’t see it.
  • Boston (78 wRC+) – It’s going to be interesting to see what direction the Red Sox go at third base, though it looks like a rejuvenated Pablo Sandoval will get the first crack over there after missing virtually all of 2016. No team could use the production at third more than the Red Sox last season, but it looks like it’ll be The Life of Pablo moving forward over there. Considering he’s owed nearly $60 million more by the Red Sox, this should come as no surprise.

Teams Who Hit LHP Poorly Last Season

Plouffe’s calling card for virtually his entire MLB career has been his ability to hit lefties. Even in a down 2016 season, Plouffe still managed to hit .240/.314/.467 against left-handed pitching — good for a 105 wRC+. Now that mark in isolation isn’t about to drive teams wild, but his career wRC+ against lefties is 121, making him a bona fide lefty masher. Seven teams finished with wRC+ marks against left-handed pitching under 90, which means they were at least 10 percent worse than league average against southpaws.

Here are those teams:

  • Oakland (wRC+ 89) – Again, we find an A’s team that likes to mix-and-match. Plouffe playing first base to spell a woeful Yonder Alonso while also mixing in at DH and third base makes some sense. The A’s have Ryon Healy penciled in at third base, and he looked pretty solid — .305/.337/.524 — in 72 games at the hot corner last season. Alonso hasn’t hit much at all in his career, and even less so against lefties, and right now the MLB.com depth chart has Renato Nunez penciled in at DH for the team. Last year in nine games, he went just 2-for-15. Plouffe makes a ton of sense as a flip candidate for the A’s at midseason.   
  • Colorado (wRC+ 84) – Eh, probably not. Not only is Nolan Arenado entrenched at third base as one of the best young players in the game, but barring any additional logjams being cleared, the team has just handed a ton of money to Ian Desmond to play first base. Even if the Rockies move Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez to make room for Desmond in the outfield, that more likely signals that they’re interested in a masher to play first base, like Mark Trumbo, Edwin Encarnacion or Chris Carter. There’s nothing to see here.  
  • Baltimore (wRC+ 83) – This isn’t terribly likely, either. Like Colorado, Baltimore has a young stud entrenched at third base in Manny Machado, and even more money invested at first base in Chris Davis. If the team doesn’t want to go with Trey Mancini at DH, a Plouffe-Pedro Alvarez platoon would be awesome for very little money. That doesn’t seem likely.
  • Cincinnati (wRC+ 83) – At this point, they’ll probably just want to see what they have in Eugenio Suarez, who hit .248/.317/.411 with 21 home runs in his age-24 season for the Reds in 2015.
  • Atlanta (wRC+ 81) – Again, they’d have to be convinced Plouffe is a better option than the still-cheap Garcia.  
  • Philadelphia (wRC+ 78) – The Phillies have their version of Miguel Sano at third base in Maikel Franco and have a cheap masher in Tommy Joseph penciled in at first base right now. They also have some interesting first base prospects who aren’t too far away.
  • Los Angeles (N) (wRC+ 72) – Seems hard to believe nobody was worse than the Dodgers against lefties last year, but it’s true. Again, if they wanted to mix-and-match with Turner moving around they could obviously find room for Plouffe to play some first and third base. Turner’s reverse splits (.640 OPS v. LHP, .919 v. RHP) last year were also a bit bizarre. But, since he’s become a solid every day regular he’s hit righties better than lefties.  

Teams Who Flat Out Don’t Have Much at 1B/3B on Their Depth Chart or Just Have a Need

I still maintain that Plouffe could make some sense for the Angels. He and C.J. Cron are the same handed, but the latter has struggled to the tune of a .698 OPS against lefties in his career. With the uncertainty around the health of DH Albert Pujols — who had surgery on his foot earlier this month — Plouffe could make for a good insurance bat for the Angels. The White Sox could make some sense too if they move Todd Frazier to DH, but again they may want to see what they have in Matt Davidson in addition to the crown jewel of their newly-acquired prospect loot, Yoan Moncada.

Beyond that, it can be kind of difficult to find room for a corner guy on a decent roster. Most teams who are in contention or believe they can be have those spots filled, and teams who are rebuilding or are retooling either have youngsters they want to get a look at or minimal desire to add payroll. This is a large reason why the Twins most likely did not get much trade interest at any point in Plouffe’s time with the club.

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