Editor’s note: We at Zone Coverage would like to welcome Tyler Guenthner to the family. He’ll be writing about fantasy football for us, and this is his first piece. Follow him on twitter: @DHH_Tyler
Jay Cutler is back! He put the pack of cigarettes down and picked up the pigskin to join the Miami Dolphins on a one-year, $10 million deal. The Miami Dolphins as a whole are better off with Cutler over Ryan Tannehill in many ways. But how does this affect the positional players for fantasy football in 2017? Who should be the players to get a boost? Who will underperform? Here are some people you should be buying or selling in your fantasy drafts.
*All ADP is from fantasyfootballcalculator.com
Buy
Jay Ajayi RB (RB 9 ADP) – With Tannehill, defenses didn’t fear the outside of the field as he is a “dink-and-dunk” quarterback. Now with Cutler, who has a cannon of an arm, this offense will push the safeties back with respect for the deep ball. This should help give Ajayi clear lanes to run through and be more efficient, rather than having three games with over 200 yards for over 50 percent of his total stats in 2016. So, with Cutler comes efficiency from Ajayi.
Also, this helps Ajayi in the passing game. Through Cutler’s career in Chicago, except for 2016, he had Matt Forte as his running back. When we think of Forte, we think of an every-down back who from 2008-15 never received fewer than 50 targets per season. Ajayi received 46 last season and didn’t even start until Week 5 last season. With the trust of head coach Adam Gase, look for Ajayi to gain passing down work and build off his breakout 2016 season.
DeVante Parker WR (WR 38) – Cutler loves big wide receivers. If you look back at his wide receiver one for his career you have Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and now Jarvis Landry? No, it’s Parker, who is 6-foot-3, 210 pounds and has a wingspan of over 80 inches.
What does that mean? It means Parker has the most to gain from Cutler coming in. In his first two seasons, Parker hasn’t started in over eight games or over 90 targets. Why will this change? Cutler targets his big, outside, jump-ball wide receivers. Marshall (6-foot-4, 230 pounds) never had fewer than 140 targets with Cutler in a healthy season. Jeffery (6-foot-4, 230 pounds) had over 140 targets when he played in all 16 games. So if we all go by trends and history, Parker will be the wide receiver you want to own for 2017.
Julius Thomas TE (TE 18) – Everyone is connected somehow. Gase coached in Denver when Thomas had a Pro Bowl season. Gase coached Cutler in Chicago when Martellus Bennett had career years at tight end. Put it together, if healthy, Thomas can be a low-end TE1 for 2017. In his two seasons with Gase where he played more than 12 games, Thomas had 12 touchdowns. This is due to his ability to get open in the red zone and size (6-foot-4, 250 pounds). When it comes to Cutler playing with Bennett from 2013-15, he targeted him no less than 80 times a season. To put that into perspective, Thomas’ career high is 90 with Peyton Manning in his career year.
Sell
Jarvis Landry WR (WR 20) – With Tannehill throwing the ball, Landry is a great WR2 on a fantasy team. He is given the volume he needs to be successful with no fewer than 112 targets. With Cutler now throwing him the ball, his targets could be down to his rookie year total of 112 instead of the past two seasons where he had 166 (2015) and 131 (2016). Even when Matt Moore came in to start when Tannehill was injured in the first place, in two out of three games, Landry failed to get more than six targets. In Week 15, he had three for 108 yards. But he saved that week with a long touchdown, which isn’t what Landry is known for. Week 16 he went 3 for 29 and Week 17 he went 9 for 76 and a touchdown. Week 17 looked good from the outside but he played New England, who had their starters out, and had one of his worst yards/reception total of 2016 (8.44). Cutler like the big wide receivers and this will hurt Landry’s short passing game ability in 2017.
Also Landry is a free agent after 2017. With the team not signing him or making it too much of a priority, he should hit free agency in 2018. This would be a perfect time to sell him in a dynasty league and cash out at top value.
Neutral
Kenny Stills WR (WR 79) – If Moore was starting, Stills would be a hard buy! When Moore came in for Tannehill, Stills caught a touchdown in every game (Weeks 14-17). With Cutler coming in now over Moore, the excitement has cooled down — but not completely. Stills has speed for days (sub-4.4 40-yard dash) and a good route runner on the opposite side of Parker. So as a DFS play in DraftKings, FanDuel, or PlayDraft, Stills can win you some weeks. Though he won’t be consistent enough to rely on in redraft leagues, he is a guy to keep on your waiver wire list.
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