Following a statement win over Nebraska, the Minnesota Golden Gophers now head out on the road to face off against a new-look Northwestern Wildcats team.
After a rough 2-3 start, the Wildcats looked to be regressing and taking steps back from their 7-6 season in 2016. However, Northwestern’s recent five-game winning streak – that has included victories over the likes of Iowa and Michigan State – should force Minnesota fans to pause. After a slow start, what changed?
The New Look Wildcats?
Over the last five games, the Wildcats have racked up 147 points against Big Ten programs. Looking at the stats, quarterback Clayton Thorson has played consistent football throughout the season. The defense has held up too, letting up fewer than five yards per play three times in their win streak, and twice in the first five games.
The running game on both sides has looked better during the five game streaks as well, but not yet to the point where it alone can lead the Wildcats to victory. To explain the winning streak, it may be melted down to a simpler stat.
Through the winning streak, the Wildcats were leading or tied going into halftime in four of the five games before finding victory. While the reputation of Northwestern has been built around a comeback-kid-in-the-fourth-quarter mantra after overtime wins against Michigan State, Nebraska and Iowa, something else may be afoot.
Even against Michigan State, the Wildcats had the game tied 10-10 headed into halftime. This team thrives on winning quarters to win games, and every time they have consistently been good early in games, it has led to forced overtimes. The exception to this was the game against Iowa, where they lost in overtime on a dropped pass to tight end Noah Fant, their most reliable pass-catcher. That was just a weird game.
The Wildcats have jumped out to leads, allowing them to slow down the game in the second half and play with the lead. Northwestern’s quarterback, Thorson, has been good enough for 2,583 yards, but also has paired his 11 touchdowns with just as many interceptions. The ground game has also had bright spots, and averaged over three yards per carry in five games. But the backs have also dipped under that mark five times, and under two yards per carry twice.
The defense also does enough to get by without standing out. Northwestern has 20 sacks and 15 turnovers, all middle-of-the-road marks, while giving up 389 yards and 23.1 points per game. The Wildcats defensive stats have them at right at the 59th ranked spot out of 120. None of the defensive stats took a jump in the inning streak either. The best game the defensive line had was in the blowout loss to Penn State, where they recorded five sacks.
The bottom line for Northwestern is this: They are a smoke and mirrors show, that has been able to eek out wins in overtime to keep winning when first half leads fail them. The Wildcats need to go up early, because a 10-point deficit puts this team away. They are strong enough to hang with teams, and have shown their ability to pull games out in extra time. While their senior lead team is good late, they cannot overcome mistakes, which is why staying as close to turnover-free as possible is essential to their success.
Why The Gophers Win
There is one thing Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck should be pounding into his defense all week: The fact they have not forced a turnover in two weeks.
The defense that made a staple of getting the ball back into the hands of the offense has to create turnovers early. Just like last weekend, safeties Duke McGhee and Josh Huff showing up in a big way will make all the difference in a secondary with plenty of youth starting in place of the injured. Now the Gophers need to snag those extra possessions.
On the other side of the ball, the Gophers need to stay simple. There may be a temptation to try and build off last week’s success against Nebraska by adding to the playbook, but the formula for this team is a simple one that should build everything off between the tackle running.
The power running of Kobe McCrary up the middle is what keeps the defense honest on play action, whether it is a draw fake or bootleg. It also had the defense biting down hard on the read-option, which opened up big gaps for quarterback Demry Croft. He excelled in his watered-down playbook, mastering the passing that thrived when it was able to build off the success of the ground game. The other half of the running back duo, Rodney Smith, also looked great as the shifty speed back on the outside when paired with McCrary.
Closing Out
The first 30 minutes of this game will be the most important of the game. The Gophers can put away any chance of the Wildcats speaking into the game by going up 14 or 17 points headed into halftime. Desperation-mode Northwestern will not be pulling out the game in the fourth quarter. The Gophers should try to force this Northwestern team to win in four quarters of play.
Turnovers from the defense, capitalizing on opportunities with simple offense and staying efficient again in the red zone – the Gophers went six for six against Nebraska – will give the road team the victory.
Prediction – Gophers win 31-24.
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