Score-first point guards, hulking pick-and-roll big men, and playmaking power forwards have proven to be the three most likely things to puncture the Minnesota Timberwolves defensive shield in 2017.
With the league’s 25th-best defense, the Wolves shield has not been weaponized this season. Instead, the penetrability of the defense has been more umbrella than a shield. And the Thunder, though not yet a fluid conglomerate, possess the weapons that best pierce that umbrella in Minnesota.
This is of pertinence for a Wolves team that appears playoff bound for the first time in 13 seasons. In the preseason, Vegas set the Wolves win total over/under (essentially a prediction of wins for the season) at 48.5 — the fifth-highest total in the Western Conference. The fourth highest? The Thunder at 52.5.
While these projections are by no means law, they do serve as one of the best possible guidelines. Through this instruction and the dominance of Golden State, Houston, and San Antonio, a first-round matchup between Minnesota and Oklahoma City seems possible if not likely.
With the cratering of the Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies, the likelihood of this matchup is only increasing. FiveThirtyEight.com’s CARMELO projections update daily and see the Wolves finishing fourth in the West at 47-35 and the Thunder one game behind, in fifth, at 46-36.
Which is all to say, Minnesota would do well to be prepared for the Thunder. As of Dec. 1, they are not.
Defending Score-First Point Guards
In a league that has seen point guard scoring explode, Russell Westbrook is the poster-child. His diverse scoring skillset and the tenacity he implements to fill it up is unmatched. Perhaps the league’s best point guard in offensive transition, Westbrook is a force of nature when getting to the basket.
Following a devastating 108-121 loss to the Orlando Magic on Wednesday, Westbrook simply decided he was going to score on the very first possession of the Wolves-Thunder matchup on Friday night.
Westbrook has always played with the electrical current of a downed power line flopping through the street but his 2016-17 MVP campaign was fueled by a diversified offensive skillset. Westbrook now punishes smaller guards by backing them down.
In Friday night’s 111-107 victory, he picked on the shorter and weaker Jeff Teague.
Tyus Jones also fell victim to Westbrook. In transition, it takes Russ literally two seconds to waive off Steven Adams when he recognizes the Jones matchup.
Additionally, he has implemented a lethal pull-up game in pick and roll with Adams, forcing defenses to pick their poison.
Defending Hulking Pick And Roll Big Men
When Russ is not pulling up in pick and roll the Thunder’s second option in that action is, well, pretty great. On Friday, Adams tallied a career-high 27 points on 11 of 11 shooting from the field while also making all five of his free throw attempts.
Adams is rarely hit immediately on the first screen but he remains technical and is patient enough to be the second or third option. He knows his offensive limitations and in turn accentuates the positives.
One of those positives is having a simply massive frame that is able to bump opponents off “the spot” on both offense and defense.
Here, this should be Towns’ defensive rebound and the Wolves should be transitioning down three points with thirty-five seconds remaining. Instead, Adams snatches the ball away. While Towns crumbles, Adams lays up what ended up being a game-clinching bucket.
Adams dominating the interior against the Wolves was not a unique occasion. Minnesota has been battered on the interior by centers the likes of Andre Drummond and Dwight Howard all season. The pick and roll disorient the Minnesota big men at the expense of a proper box out and defensive rebounds are the casualty.
In 2016-17 the Wolves were last in the league in defensive rebounds per 100 possessions and this season they have only marginally improved to 27th.
Defending Playmaking Power Forwards
This is another pick your poison situation when it comes to defending the Thunder’s second big. Whether you define Paul George or Carmelo Anthony as the power forward is irrelevant. The Wolves have to defend both. And they can’t.
Specifically, in a matchup against the Thunder, the Wolves prefer to have Jimmy Butler guard Westbrook, leaving Andrew Wiggins and Taj Gibson to handle George and Anthony. Gibson is the type of big who admirably scats on the perimeter when a situational switch is necessitated. But when his primary matchup is a faster-footed isolator, he is outmatched.
At this stage of his career, Gibson is still a good overall defender but keeping pace on the perimeter consistently is a task too tall. Even here against Anthony’s backup, Jerami Grant, Gibson is treated as a mismatch.
Things get far worse when Gibson is replaced by his backup, Nemanja Bjelica. In the two Thunder matchups Bjelica played in there were consecutive sequences in both games where Anthony honed in on the Wolves unassuming backup.
It is matchups like these that will be peppered in a playoff series when the opponent has time to scheme specifically for the opposing personnel. Given how the Wolves roster is currently constructed, I’m not sure what their counter will be. Perhaps these issues will suggest at the trade deadline.
If it is not personnel, then, adjustments are going to need to be made because this Thunder team is going to age like wine, not milk. As their personnel grouping finds comfort, they are likely to find more effectiveness by exploiting weaknesses like these three above.
The good news for Minnesota is that they too have time. Not only against Oklahoma City but in general, the Wolves defense is going to need to improve to compete in the playoffs. They too have time to strengthen their defensive shield. The additional reps and coaching they absorb along the way will make a difference.
The even better news is that they aren’t that far off. Minnesota has beaten Oklahoma City twice already, suggesting they are (at worst) in the same tier.
The two teams do meet again Jan. 10 back in Minnesota for a fourth but possibly not final matchup this season. If things go as planned, there could be seven more games between these two teams at some point down the road.
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