In Sunday evening’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers, Karl-Anthony Towns had perhaps his worst defensive game of the season culminating in a sequence of fourth-quarter miscues that left Tom Thibodeau, Taj Gibson, and Towns himself infuriated.
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That wide-open dunk by DeAndre Jordan – gifted by Towns – marked Jordan’s seventh bucket in seven attempts that evening. Jordan’s perfect shooting night meant the Minnesota Timberwolves – and tangentially Towns – had allowed opposing centers to combine for a perfect 18-of-18 in consecutive games after Steven Adams of the Oklahoma City Thunder tallied 27 points on 11-of-11 shooting from the field in the previous game.
Which is to say: Same old.
Minnesota had the league’s 27th best defense last season and, again, this year find themselves with the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league despite the additions of Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson. Now, 107 games into the Tom Thibodeau era, the Wolves head to Los Angeles Wednesday evening with not only defensive issues but a Karl-Anthony Towns problem.
As a rookie, the hopeful outlook was that Towns’ defense, while disappointing, was forgiven by his inexperience. His sophomore season remained inadequate but was again pardoned by a roster lacking veteran wherewithal and the implementation of a new head coach with a complex defensive system. This season, the system is no longer new and the veterans are no longer void leading to the current narrative: Towns is the cause of a lot of Minnesota’s problems.
Defensive ineffectiveness is hard to quantify for a number of reasons. First, defensive metrics are wonky and can be misleading. Additionally, individual defense is immensely affected by the four surrounding pieces on the floor who, together, create a defensive string. But it is when the player that breaks “the string” is the same player who has the metrics with a “-” in front of them that there is a confirmation of sorts. As it stands today, Towns is not only a poor defensive player, he appears to be the root of the problem for the Timberwolves.
The DeAndre Jordan Conversation
With this negative perception growing, the DeAndre Jordan-to Minnesota-rumor is becoming increasingly appealing. Minnesota cannot and will not uproot Towns from the defense, but planting a new tree in the paint next to Towns makes sense, even if the price is expensive.
Jordan was an All-Star in 2017, and on the NBA’s All-Defensive First Team in both 2015 and 2016, but has become available through dysfunction in Los Angeles. The Clippers are officially going nowhere and with Jordan’s opportunity to become a free agent at season’s end, the option of moving him would be a logical first step in a necessary rebuild.
Jordan possesses a $24.1 million player option in the final year of his deal in 2018-19. Opting out of that final season is a near lock given the amount of money and security he could obtain this offseason rather than waiting until the next summer when he is a year older.
Jordan is also a ten-year veteran, meaning he can sign his next deal for up to 35 percent of the $101 million salary cap in 2018-19. Through this, his max is five years and $207.384 million if he re-signs with the team that owns his bird rights (the team he played for in the prior season).
DeAndre Jordan Max Contract (w/ Bird Rights)
| 2018-19 | $35,350,000 |
| 2019-20 | $38,178,000 |
| 2020-21 | $41,232,000 |
| 2021-22 | $44,531,000 |
| 2022-23 | $48,093,000 |
| Total | $207,384,000 |
“He will want a max,” Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer told Zone Coverage. “He might not get it, but he will want it.”
If it were the 2016 offseason, where teams were throwing gobs of money at centers as they did with Timofey Mozgov, Ian Mahinmi, and Joakim Noah then, yes, Jordan might get it. But if the 2017 offseason is indicative, the market seems to have progressed towards rationality.
This past summer, All-NBA talents in their 30s did not receive the maximum this past summer. Implying a more reasonable comparison for the 30-year-old Jordan would be the contract 32-year-old Paul Millsap signed with Denver Nuggets this offseason for three years and $90 million. Or, the contract 31-year-old Kyle Lowry signed with Toronto Raptors for three years and $100 million.
“That’s how it will end up,” said O’Connor.
While these price tags are far more reasonable than the $207.4 million option, very few teams will have the financial flexibility to make such a move. Notably Minnesota.
Minnesota’s Current Salary Cap Situation
| Player | Salary Cap Hit ’17-18 | Notes | Salary ’18-19 |
| Jimmy Butler | $19,301,070 | $20,445,779 | |
| Jeff Teague | $19,000,000 | $19,000,000 | |
| Gorgui Dieng | $14,112,360 | $15,170,787 | |
| Taj Gibson | $14,000,000 | $14,000,000 | |
| Andrew Wiggins | $7,574,323 | max extension begins in ’18-19 | $25,250,000 |
| Cole Aldrich | $7,300,000 | partially guaranteed in ’18-19 | $2,056,021 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $6,216,840 | $7,839,435 | |
| Jamal Crawford | $4,328,000 | $4,544,400 | |
| Nemanja Bjelica | $3,949,999 | RFA at season’s end | 0 |
| Justin Patton | $2,247,480 | $2,667,600 | |
| Shabazz Muhammad | $1,471,382 | player option in ’18-’19 | $1,795,015 |
| Tyus Jones | $1,471,382 | $2,444,503 | |
| Kevin Martin (waived) | $1,360,305 | deal expires after ’17-18 | 0 |
| ——— | |||
| Sum of Salaries | $102,333,141 | $115,213,540 | |
| Estimated Salary Cap | $99,093,000 | $101,000,000 | |
| Luxury Tax Line | $119,266,000 | $123,000,000 | |
| Cap Space | $0 | $0 |
With Minnesota having $115,213,540 ($14.2 million over the projected salary cap) locked up in guaranteed money for 2018-19, re-signing Jordan even at the optimistic price tag of Millsap ($30 million per year) will push the Wolves well above the luxury tax line.
But there is a way to lessen that financial blow.
Trading Gorgui Dieng’s $64 Million Contract
Gorgui Dieng is in year one of a four-year contract that will pay him, on average, $16 million per season. Having Dieng included in the trade would get Minnesota off a contract that, in retrospect, is rather Mozgov-y.
Including Dieng in a trade for Jordan kills two birds with one stone for Minnesota. Not only would the Wolves get off unwanted money, the immensity of Dieng’s contract makes a swap with Jordan possible with minimal additional salary fodder added.
This alone would, of course, not get the deal done. Minnesota would likely need to include a first-round pick and a young asset on a team-friendly contract. For the Wolves, that means the 2018 Oklahoma City first-round pick they obtained in the Ricky Rubio trade and, predictably, Justin Patton.
(Minnesota cannot trade their own 2018 first round pick as that is owed to the Atlanta Hawks from the 2015 Adreian Payne trade.)
Depending on where the Clippers stand on Patton as a prospect and their stomach for a seven-footer with a foot injury, a different young player may instead need to be the second asset. The Minnesota-native, Tyus Jones, may be the answer.
These trades are theoretical in nature, of course, but do open up a possible path to bringing in Jordan.
A player of Jordan’s caliber will certainly garnish multiple suitors that could drive up his price on the trade market, but it is important to note that the other suitors face the same trepidations with the future price tag on Jordan.
Other than Minnesota, the teams explicitly named in Gery Woelfel’s report were the Milwaukee Bucks, Washington Wizards, and Toronto Raptors. All three of those teams already have guaranteed contracts that exceed next season’s salary cap – almost identical in nature to Minnesota.
If Jordan is simply viewed as a “rental” for the rest of the season by those suitors the question becomes:
Who is hungrier for wins this season?
Milwaukee, Washington, and Toronto all face diminishing returns on improving their rosters if it is only for the 2017-18 season as they play in the same conference as LeBron James. The Wolves have an even more abhorring beast at the top of their conference but unlike those Eastern Conference teams, Minnesota has been void of playoff basketball since the first George W. Bush Administration.
Perhaps there is more incentive to make a win-now acquisition in Minnesota than almost anywhere else. The Wolves past offseason that included acquiring 37-year-old Jamal Crawford, 32-year-old Taj Gibson, 29-year-old Jeff Teague and 28-year-old Jimmy Butler certainly gleans this as a possibility.
The Fit of DeAndre Jordan
To boot, of the reported teams, the Timberwolves 27th-ranked in defensive rating (according to Basketball-Reference.com), need a boost the most as they currently employ one of the league’s most confused if not outright awful big man defenders.
It is also important to note that Jordan would seamlessly slide in at the center position. While Towns is often viewed as a center, that is not functionally where he has been playing.
Nikola Vucevic confirmed as much prior to the Orlando Magic’s late November trip to Minnesota.
“He plays the four and Taj plays the five,” Vucevic told Zone Coverage when describing why Aaron Gordon (Orlando’s 6’8″ power forward) would be guarding Towns and why he would be guarding Gibson. “I think it’s because Towns steps out more and he shoots. Taj stays inside.”
The defensive side of the ball has been no different positionally for Towns – Gibson and Dieng have been guarding opposing centers on defense. Really, Towns only plays the five with the second unit when he is flanked by Nemanja Bjelica. This rotation could remain status quo, even with a Jordan acquisition.
A move of this magnitude presents plenty of hoops to jump through, but there is a logical path for Jordan to Minnesota. The need is there and the necessary assets are potentially available without drastically affecting the current rotation.
The real question, again, becomes: How hungry are the Wolves?
This is important because this trade wouldn’t just rev the engines for winning; it would bulldoze forward a window once set in the 2020s up to right now. For the Timberwolves, a DeAndre Jordan trade is an incredible risk with a discernable reward; playoff basketball.
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