Karl-Anthony Towns is getting Anthony Davis’d this year.
In the 2014-15 season, Davis’ third in the NBA, it was hard to find an existential basketball article that did not crown Davis the heir apparent to The King, LeBron James. The basketball gods had gifted the then-21-year-old Davis with a Wilt Chamberlain-size wingspan and 21st-century athleticism akin to Kevin Durant. They even slapped a unibrow on him so we wouldn’t get confused.
With this size and skill, Davis moved from high school through the University of Kentucky and to the NBA seamlessly. By that age-21 season, Davis was averaging 24 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks per game. He was an analytics darling, didn’t have a specific position, and was clearly still growing as he led the New Orleans Pelicans to the playoffs single-handedly. Broadly, Davis was something fans and opponents alike had never seen.
It wasn’t a matter of will Davis be better than LeBron, but a question of when.
But he didn’t get better than LeBron, and we forgot about him.
Over Davis’ next two seasons, his Pelicans won a mere 30 and 34 games, missed the playoffs twice, got banged up — missed 28 total games in those two years, and as he aged, some of that hope that was springing eternal — firehose-style — began to diminish.
Today, read an article on the tip-top talent of the NBA and make no mistake, Davis is still there, it just requires some scrolling.
The New AD
Each season, NBA.com conducts a survey of the NBA’s 30 general managers to ask questions about the season to come. Who will win the NBA Finals? Who will win MVP? Things like that.
One of the more intriguing questions from that survey each year is; If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?
Three years ago, that 21-year-old Anthony Davis received 25 percent of the vote for this accolade. Only LeBron – who was still at the peak of his powers at 29 – received more votes.
This season, in that same survey, Karl-Anthony Towns received the most votes. Also 21 to begin the season, Towns entered the season with sky-high expectations as the league’s chief decision-makers anointed him The Next Big Thing.
This felt warranted.
Post All-Star Break last season, Towns was averaging 28.4 points and 13.4 rebounds per game while shooting 63.7 percent on 2-point field goals and a scalding 43.4 percent from deep.
Towns was DeAndre Jordan at the rim and Kyle Korver on the perimeter, and had amalgamated into a whole different type of freak. Even the bionic “Brow” has never incorporated a 3-pointer to his game in the way Towns has.
But much like the platinum glimmer has begun to fade off Davis, Towns’ perception has also taken a hit over the past month.
In a world with outlandish expectations, perfection is a necessity. Take precise, but slow, annual steps (like Davis) and you are just good.
This season, Towns is taking those type of steps. His scoring and rebounding averages are on par with his 2016-17 numbers, but his efficiency from deep and the restricted area have both improved. Coming into the season, this seemed to be a nearly impossible task.
But his defense is still an issue in the exact same way it was last season — a problem that may persist in the immediate future. However, this non-fatal flaw has come out sideways. It has gone too far. Towns has been unfairly degraded.
Like last season, ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus still sees Towns as one of the worst defensive centers in the league. This is, of course, not a good sign, but we knew this.
And thus: Somewhere along the way, the logic surrounding Towns has become flawed. The defense was this bad on Oct. 4 when the GM’s voted, so my question is this: What has changed? If Towns was the most appealing young player in the NBA a month ago, how could he now be out of the conversation?
On the contrary, there is a stronger argument to be made that he has in fact improved. Through 15 games, the Minnesota Timberwolves have 10 wins. Last season, it took 31 games for the Wolves to win 10 games.
Yes, Towns has new teammates; Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford who are clear improvements over the players in those four roles last season — Brandon Rush, Gorgui Dieng, Ricky Rubio and Shabazz Muhammad.
But Butler has been objectively average at best and Gibson, Teague and Crawford are at most good role players. Towns remains the driving force of a team with the third-best record in the Western Conference, certainly on the offensive end.
Even if Towns’ defense has plateaued, his offensive production has marginally improved on the ridiculous standard set last season, and his team is way better. So how, then, is Towns no longer mentioned in the same breath as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kristaps Porzingis, Joel Embiid and even Ben Simmons?
It makes no sense.
Towns Top-20 in NBA?
Bill Simmons — who is by no means a professional talent evaluator but is a good proxy for public perception — ranked the top-20 players in the NBA right on his Friday podcast. Here is a recap of Simmons’ list. (h/t NBA reddit’s PumpedUpParrot)
Apparently, they don’t know how to count, because they did 21 players.
Their criteria were guys you want overall, for the rest of the season. The rationale is in parenthesis.
- LeBron James (Still the best player in the league)
- Kevin Durant (Great on both ends)
- James Harden (MVP-like season, arguably most valuable overall)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (No one is like him)
- Kawhi Leonard (Still the best two-way player in basketball, improves the Spurs dramatically)
- Stephen Curry (His impact off the stat sheet is incredible)
- Anthony Davis (Just an incredible overall big man)
- Russell Westbrook (Interchangeable with Kyrie, gave him edge for stats and overall as player)
- Kyrie Irving (Lower than Westbrook because stats aren’t totally there)
- DeMarcus Cousins (Lighting the world on fire)
- Draymond Green (An incredible defender, impact goes beyond any statistics)
- Klay Thompson (Would average 4-5 more points on any other team, great defender)
- Kristaps Porzingis (Literally saving the Knicks)
- Ben Simmons (Paul George originally here, but Simmons gets it because of impact and “remarkable” consistency thus far)
- Blake Griffin (An exciting, fun player to watch)
- Joel Embiid (This low because of potential injury)
- Paul George (Still a really good overall player despite stats dipping)
- Marc Gasol (Amazing defensive big man and they both would take him over Jokic)
- Nikola Jokic (Great talent but still has a lot to learn, Simmons doesn’t like his defensive impact)
- Chris Paul (Not a ton of rationale, just the fact it’s Chris Paul)
- Andre Drummond (Great rebounder, would take over Towns if given the option)
Honorable Mention: John Wall, Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, Mike Conley, Bradley Beal, Rudy Gobert, Isaiah Thomas, Kemba Walker, CJ McCollum, Al Horford, LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Karl-Anthony Towns (Was not on list because Simmons hates his defense, thinks he’s maybe a “Good stats, Bad team” type of guy.)
The NBA’s GM Survey and this list recorded on a podcast are two very different measurements, but broadly point to the notion that somehow Towns’ stock has taken a hit this season. To a ridiculous extent.
Inexplicably, Towns has fallen into a phylum with Andre Drummond. This guy:
To be fair, Drummond has had a phenomenal first month of the season — boosting his free throw percentage from 38.6 percent last season to 62.7 percent this year — and the Detroit Pistons have the same record as the Wolves. But still, it’s Andre Drummond.
On offense, Drummond is a pick and roll rim-roller where he, at times, is a dominant offensive weapon at the rim. However, almost all of his offensive effectiveness is created by actions surrounding him. Drummond rarely creates for himself.
Not only can Towns be a rim-roller in the fashion of Drummond, he also has a dynamic isolation post-up game that requires nothing from his teammates but a post entry. Which is to say, Towns’ shots in the lane are often more difficult — require more skill — and yet, his career shooting percentages within three-feet of the hoop is better than Drummond’s in every season of Drummond’s career.
Of course, Towns can also shoot. Not just at the free throw line (84.8 percent this season) but in the mid-post (50 percent this season), and of course the 3 (37 percent this season).
Drummond is the best rebounder in the NBA, but Towns is up there. This would lead one to think the argument for Drummond’s defense has to be the thrust.
And, okay, Towns is bad at D, but for Drummond to make up the difference he adds on offense, Towns would literally need to nap at half court every defensive possession.
Really, the Drummond argument is the frustration of Towns not meeting those sky-high expectations that assumed – and apparently required – defensive improvement. Towns’ defensive struggles, now under the microscope because the national media – like Simmons – are finally watching the Wolves do not preclude him from being a great player.
Much like Davis, Towns has not made us forget about LeBron. But if that is the standard, the process was flawed. Towns was a top 10-15 player in the NBA entering the season, and has gotten worse at nothing. Players like Drummond – and Porzingis, Simmons, and Antetokounmpo – can have great first months, but to look past Towns is extremely short-sighted.
The Wolves and the Pistons play Sunday evening, in a Towns-versus-Drummond matchup. However, if it weren’t for this silly Simmons list, that wouldn’t be the matchup I am looking at. Instead, the real matchup should be viewed as two 10-win teams playing each other, because the Towns-and-Drummond duel is not even close.
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