It’s sunny, bright and there’s nary a cloud in sight as the Twins prepare to try complete a three-game sweep of the Oakland A’s here at Target Field on Thursday afternoon. It’s a pair of righties doing battle, as Kyle Gibson takes the ball for the Twins while rookie Jharel Cotton goes for the A’s. More on that in a bit.
Is Gibson’s rotation spot in jeopardy? It’s certainly possible, as manager Paul Molitor was listing off pitchers who are all in the mix to make starts at some point this season. The Gibson question came after Molitor mentioned Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia and even Tyler Duffey by name, but he hearkened back to that question, and suggested that, while it shouldn’t be terribly surprising to anyone, Gibson needs to pitch better to keep his spot in the rotation.
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Here’s how the Twins will line up today against Cotton:
Here’s how the A’s will counter against Gibson
Cotton was the trendy pick for AL Rookie of the Year among preseason pundits due to his stuff and clear path to a job, and he’s been up and down to start the season. Two of his five starts have resulted in five earned runs allowed (5.00 ERA overall), while the other three resulted in five earned runs — combined. He’s had trouble with walks a bit this season and is a bit of a fly ball pitcher, which makes him a pretty good matchup for this Twins offense.
The pitch to look out for with Cotton is the changeup. Cotton has been as high as 96 mph with the fastball and sits 93-94, but the change is a show stopper when it’s on. This year it’s been give-and-take, as he’s at an 11 percent whiff rate on it. He’s allowed seven hits on the pitch (.308 average), but just one extra-base hit (a double). He’s allowed just one home run all season, so he’s been able to fly the friendly skies through five starts. We’ll see if the Twins can change that.
Molitor said the preparation isn’t terribly different against a starter with a very good changeup like Cotton, however. “Guys take a good look at him,” Molitor said. “But it always looks different when you’re in the box. He disguises it well and he’s got all the things that make it a good pitch as far as arm speed. He throws hard enough where sometimes you just have to try pick something out early and own it, and do the best you can if you get into a pitcher’s count late. It’s a good pitch for him. He uses it against lefties and righties. You hope he mistakes early and guys are ready to capitalize.”
Gibson’s issue has been location, as he’s not throwing nearly enough first-pitch strikes (50.5 percent, a full 10 percent below the league-average rate). When he’s been in the zone, he’s gotten peppered, as opposing batters are hitting .326/.402/.568 against him overall. The grounders haven’t been there for Gibson either — 47.6 percent this year, 52 percent career — and those are typically good damage mitigators, both in terms of double plays induced but also balls on the ground not turning into extra-base hits.
He’s in a situation where he needs to continue to pitch well to keep getting the ball. I think everybody would admit to that
Molitor suggested that Gibson needs to straighten up and fairly soon to keep his rotation spot secure. “When you talk about potential starters like Berrios, Mejia and Duffey….I think Kyle knows he’s going to have to continue to find ways to improve on areas we’ve been asking him to concentrate and focus on,” Molitor said. “I think we saw maybe a little in his last start. He’s in a situation where he needs to continue to pitch well to keep getting the ball. I think everybody would admit to that.”
Molitor said the Twins are trying to get Gibson to to get into better pitcher’s counts, which again emphasizes throwing more first-pitch strikes. Gibson isn’t among the 101 “qualified” starting pitchers — though he will be assuming he pitches at least 3.2 innings today — but if he was, he’d be ahead of only Edinson Volquez (49.6 percent) in first-pitch strike rate.
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Righty Nick Tepesch is listed as Saturday’s starter, which quells — at least for the moment — the debate about who’ll be the No. 5 starter. “We’ve talked a lot about that this week,” Molitor said. “We’re just going with the guy with experience for now. It’s going to be a little bit awkward since he hasn’t pitched in a while, but for now he’s going to get an opportunity.”
Tepesch hasn’t pitched since April 20 with the Rochester Red Wings, which means he’ll be working on more than two weeks worth of rest. He did throw a 31-pitch simulated game on Tuesday and has been throwing plenty on the side, Molitor said.
Tepesch is expected to be on a pitch count of roughly 75 pitches on Saturday against the Red Sox. Defending Cy Young winner Rick Porcello is scheduled to throw for Boston.
It’s also not certain how long Tepesch is expected to fill the role. “I don’t have anything locked in very far as far as the rotation is concerned,” Molitor said. “You can look at it as far as off days coming up here and those types of things, but I don’t want to put too much (weight) on his performance on that given day because we all know it’s going to be a different type of circumstance. I would imagine he’ll get more than one shot, but I wouldn’t say that’s an absolute.”
Molitor also briefly chatted about Berrios, who is biding his time down at Triple-A by destroying opposing International League hitters. Berrios not only has a 1.09 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning, but opposing batters are hitting just .157/.208/.235 against him.
“I don’t know if there are any absolutes in that regard,” Molitor said about what might dictate Berrios getting the call. “I think you just try to make the best decision that you can, to try to discern what is the perfect time for a young, talented kid like that. He’s had some opportunities here. He understands that there’s a difference between being successful down there and what he needs to do here, and I think he’s really working hard on those things. I think we all think he can impact this team at some point, it’s just a matter of deciding on timing.”
Berrios is slated to start for the Red Wings on Sunday against Pawtucket — ironically enough, the Triple-A affiliate of the Red Sox, who’ll be at Target Field that day.
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Molitor didn’t want to close the door on Duffey possibly starting again, but also suggested he’s been so good in his relief role — 1.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 12-2 K/BB ratio in 13.1 innings — that it makes a switch tricky. That’s not only due to how good he’s been as a reliever, but also finding a way to stretch him out again.
“I didn’t necessarily envision him settling in the way he has, into maybe not an overly defined role but a valuable one,” Molitor said. “How you measure that against either your short- or long-term picture….we sort of went through that with Trevor May for a couple years. A guy who definitely has the ability to start but proved to be an asset out there. You want to consider the player’s future too, but for now it would take some fairly major attention to detail to get him back into that starting mode now. He just doesn’t have the outings that have been long in terms of number of pitches. We haven’t crossed it off as a potential idea somewhere along the way, but we’d have to construct it if we thought it was appropriate to go that route.”
Molitor also mentioned Mejia as a possible candidate, but also said “common sense” would dictate that he’d need more than one start at Triple-A results-wise and process-wise to work his way back up. He’s slated to start on Thursday, incidentally — as long as the weather cooperates. They’re looking at a delay to start the game.
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#OldFriend Update
Former Twins outfielder Aaron Hicks is absolutely mauling the ball for the Yankees, as he’s hitting .288/.433/.615 through 20 games for the Bronx Bombers while filling in at all three outfield spots. He’s had prolonged stretches of success before, but this time he’s doing much of his damage as a left-handed hitter — the side of the plate he tried to eliminate briefly when with the Twins. He has a solid .849 OPS as a right-handed hitter, but four of his five home runs have come from the left side as he’s hitting an obscene .276/.475/.724 from that side. Look at it this way: he’s vastly outproducing $153 million man Jacoby Ellsbury this season.
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Notes and Quotes
- The Twins are 4-1 over their last five games and 7-3 over their last 10. They’re exactly .500 over their last 20 games (10-10).
- Despite scoring nine and seven runs in the first two games of the homestand, the Twins are hitting just 3-for-19 (.158) with runners in scoring position since returning home.
- The Twins are 12-3 when scoring at four-plus runs this season.
- Only six teams are striking out less frequently than the Twins (20.1 percent), who also boast MLB’s top walk rate as an offense (11.7 percent).
- Molitor on reports from Tepesch down at Rochester: “He showed gradual improvement throughout spring. He’s had some injuries, obviously. Health, and that we’ve been able to stretch him out and get him back to where he’s able to throw 100 pitches helps. He’s a guy who’s gotta pitch. We’ve seen the velocity as high as 90-91 some near the end of camp. His ability to throw the changeup and steal strikes with curve and get back into counts…he pitches backwards a lot. He kind of knows what he needs to do with his stuff.”
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