The Minnesota Twins have narrowed their options for the No. 1 overall to five or six players. Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey would not say who the team is leaning towards, unsurprisingly, but indicated he will not shy away from California high school right-handed pitcher and shortstop Hunter Greene or University of Louisville first baseman and left-handed pitcher Brendan McKay, two of the top prospects in the draft, because of any difficulties or concerns with having to choose a path for them.
“A lot has been made of that this year, more than most years, although I do find that a bit curious, because there have been a number of players over the last ten drafts, if you go back and look at it, that were probably either college position players and pitchers or high school position players and pitchers,” he said.
“I just think we need to identify who the guy is and what we think he’s best at, and really get to know what he really wants to do.”
He said that the organization has narrowed down the options for the first pick to five or six players, but did not reveal who they are. Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press had them taking Greene back in February, his colleague Mike Berardino reported that McKay was being considered in April and ESPN’s Keith Law has them taking Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright (insider required).
“I’ve heard that the Twins are in on at least four players at No. 1, including Brendan McKay (as a bat or a two-way guy but not just as a pitcher), Mackenzie Gore and Hunter Greene,” he wrote, “but the current betting in the industry is that they will take Wright as the prospect with the best combination of floor and ceiling.”
Gore is a high school lefty out of North Carolina. Royce Lewis, a California high school shortstop, Pavin Smith, a first baseman out of the University of Virginia and Adam Haseley, also out of Virginia, are the next three players in Law’s mock draft, but none of them are confirmed to be part of the Twins “Group of Six.”
The Twins could opt to pass on the best available talent — considered to be Greene or McKay, although Wright has become part of the discussion in some circles — and sign the top pick for less than the allotted $7.77 million in order to spend more on the No. 35 pick or No. 37 pick or just save ownership some money.
Asked directly if the organization would spend the $7.777 million allotted, Falvey said: “We don’t have any thought on that right now. Until we get a little bit closer to the draft, I wouldn’t have any comment on that right now.”
Falvey won’t be alone in making the decision. As the chief baseball officer, he is the highest ranking person in the Twins front office. But he has a right-hand man in Thad Levine (official title: senior vice president and general manager) as well as director of scouting Sean Johnson, his senior advisor, Deron Johnson, as well as a massive scouting staff to rely on with the first pick as well as the player they select in the 40th round.
“I’ve seen three or four in person. the one benefit we have these days, is that there is a ton of video,” he said. “Take a college pitcher at a major conference, I can go watch 600 pitches of that guy right now in the next half hour. We have spent a lot of time on the video side.”
Many of these scouts were inherited from the Terry Ryan regime, which allowed for continuity, but also scrutiny because of the the organization’s inability to develop pitching during his second stint with the team. They too will be evaluated during this process.
“Organization-wide we’ve been doing that. Once we got in here and trying to learn who people are, hoping that they embrace the idea of change and development, we’ll trust these guys. I’m confident in that,” he said.
“I have a better understanding of our history here, now, than I did when I first took the job, for sure. And I can tell you by and large, no one works harder than Minnesota Twins scouts — to get information, to learn makeup, to know about the players — so I’m confident we have a great group that I trust.”
But at the end of the day, the buck stops with him. There may not be a generational player like Bryce Harper or Mike Trout in this draft, but for a team that lost over 100 games last year, another high-end talent would be a great compliment to Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano in the future.
You don’t aspire to pick No. 1 very often, but we recognize that in certain situation, because it’s an opportunity to add real talent to the organization
“We’re talking about our draft process, Sean is certainly running the department. He’s a big part of the process,” said Falvey. “My goal in this, and we’ve been very transparent with Sean about this throughout the course of the process, is we will play a meaningful role in the selection at the top end of this draft. It’s an organizational decision and it’s a responsibility that I have, that Thad has, that Sean has. But I’m confident we’re going to make it collectively.”
Below is a transcription of Falvey’s informal press conference, conducted an hour before the Twins game against Houston on Wednesday. Jon Krawczynski of the Associated Press, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, Rhett Bollinger and Shane Jackson of MLB.com and I collaborated to transcribe the 18-minute session. It has been edited and abbreviated for clarity.
Opening statement
You don’t aspire to pick No. 1 very often — pretty sure that would be a tough year — but we recognize that in certain situation, because it’s an opportunity to add real talent to the organization, not just at 1, but at No. 35 and 37 and subsequent picks after that. I recognize there’s focus on Pick 1, and I get why, but it’s important for us to focus on scouting the entire draft, because that’s the lifeblood of building a championship-caliber organization — scouting and player development.
We’re not ruling any players out, at Pick 1 or any of the other picks, to give ourselves the best chance.
Will you go right up until draft night?
One of the things we set up this winter was to not rule anybody out throughout the course of the spring. I started getting questions in March, is it this player or this player? And I said, ‘We’re way too early for that.’ And I think even now, just at the end of May and heading into June, I think that there are questions we want to answer with each of these players that are under consideration.
Now, it’s a group of five to six, probably, for Pick 1 at this stage. For picks 35 and 37, obviously, there are more than that. We’re approaching this where we don’t make up our minds before we walk into the room. When we start our meetings next week — we’ll start them on Monday — and really at that point will try to dissect each individual player, question the quality of the inputs … and then start to make some decisions on how we stack those guys up.
No Bryce Harper in this draft?
I think this is the type of year where there are a number of players that we like. I don’t know that there’s one that stands out from the rest. … It may come to pass that over the next couple of weeks during the meetings we feel there really is separation. But as it stands right now, as we go into it, we think there are a lot of good players to be talking about, and we’ll go from there.
We want to look at it as, after the player we take with Pick 1, we’re not even thinking about it anymore; we’re moving on to how we’re going to set ourselves up for 35 and 37, and so on
Is there extra pressure when drafting first?
I look at every draft as an opportunity to add talent throughout. In some cases, the best player that you select throughout the course of the draft isn’t the one you take first, at whatever pick. So, we want to look at it as, after the player we take with Pick 1, we’re not even thinking about it anymore; we’re moving on to how we’re going to set ourselves up for 35 and 37, and so on. I’d view that no different if we were picking 15th, first or 50th. We’ve got to put ourselves in the position to get the best player possible at that pick.
Is there more pressure now that people follows the draft closer than in the past?
It’s definitely changed, certainly over the last five-plus years. We’re far more attentive to it, and I think that’s a great thing.
Why are people paying attention more?
It’s definitely changed certainly over the last five years. We’re more attentive to it. I think it’s a great thing. It’s televised in New Jersey and to get some young kids up there to do what a lot of the other sports have done is a great initiative by Major League Baseball. But it does create pressure, no question. If you’re pick No. 1 or even No. 10 and you’re your club’s first pick, that’s where all the focus is. That’s why it’s so importantly critical not only to evaluate the player’s talent but also to think about the makeup and what drives this player to be successful. Because every player is going to the minor leagues and who are the guys who are going to fight through that. That’s what we’re trying to identify.
You don’t want tie all your decisions to what’s going on with your major league team at that time because as you’ve said, three, four five years down the line, your needs could look totally different
Are you gonna focus more on pitchers due to lack of depth?
I think most years, and I haven’t looked back at the actual numbers of Twins drafts in the past, but it ends up being about half and half mix over the course of every draft. We’re going to target upside arms throughout the draft. It’s an area of focus for our scouting staff. But you don’t want tie all your decisions to what’s going on with your major league team at that time because as you’ve said, three, four five years down the line, your needs could look totally different. You could’ve traded for guys or had free agents fit. So I’m careful not to let too much of the recency bias at the major league level affect our decisions.
But there is a lack of pitching depth in the system…
You never have too much pitching in your system. I’ve heard the word pitching depth but I don’t buy into that. I don’t even know that is. Every time you think you have too much pitching depth you will be humbled quickly.
Are you guys going to draft the best talent, or save money with the first pick?
I think each year you see in the draft you view it as a portfolio of players. You want as many upsides assets as you can in your organization. There are different ways to do that and in some cases you find ways to save money at different picks to potentially add more impact players to your draft. We’ll certainly talk about that strategy but I’m not yet ready to say it’s something we’d do in the first round. It’s something we’ll certainly think about during the course of that process. I wouldn’t rule that out.
So are you going to take the best baseball talent or implement and different strategy?
I think we view it as, all the players we are talking about, all have really good talent. I think there is a question that we always need to employ strategies based on that, that we think are the best for the long term building of our minor league system.
When you think about timelines too much in the draft, that can get you sideways
How much will time to the big leagues be considered?
No, I think that’s actually along the lines of what we were just talking about with the major league team. I think when you think about timelines too much in the draft, that can get you sideways. We want to try and acquire as much potential talent for us building over the long term. I think those things tend to take care of themselves over time.”
How do you delegate responsibility with director of scouting Sean Johnson?
So really thinking back to January, when we had our scouting summit in Florida, we set out some broad expectations for strategy and plan as well as tools and systems that we are going to use to help make decisions in the draft.
So from at that moment, it was more broad and level on process, as we get through the spring and even the draft itself. Since then, Sean and I have checked in every couple of days through the course of spring when he’s traveling. Now he’s planted here, as we start to work toward the draft meetings. So we are talking everyday about these players and about the process for next week.
You can almost get almost every game in the country on television and record it
Have you even seen the five to six players you are thinking of drafting?
I’ve seen three or four in person. the one benefit we have these days, is that there is a ton of video. Our scouts do a great job of shooting it. You can almost get almost every game in the country on television and record it. We have some young guys that spend late hours recording each and everyone of these and splitting it up pitch by pitch. Take a college pitcher at a major conference, I can go watch 600 pitches of that guy right now in the next half hour. We have spent a lot of time on the video side.
Are any of these players coming to Target Field?
Some teams do some kind of workout with groups of players. I think historically we have, the Twins, and so we will continue to do that with some select players and some that are in consideration for top end and some that in consideration in different parts of the draft. I view that as not necessarily something about talent, but more to get the know the player a bit more and the makeup. I think taking BP and running a 60, seeing a guy throw a bullpen is helpful, but maybe not the deciding factor.
So you wine and dine them?
Yeah get to know them a little bit, ask a few difficult questions.
Will you know the morning of June 12?
Based on what we know right now, we’ll be prepared going into the day of the draft, for our strategy. We’ve intentionally tried to stay broad going into our meetings, so as not to rule anybody out.
The reality is, you get through the spring, some of you guys had asked who we’re going to select in April. It’s important then for us to stay broad, because things change through the course of the spring. And we saw that this spring. Some guys ebbed and flowed, weren’t playing their best at that moment in time.
If we had turned away at that moment, and gotten to say, May 15, and had not scouted that player and he was coming back on, we can’t get that time back. So the important part is to always be thinking broadly about the whole collection of players. My sense is in the days leading up to the draft, we’ll have a much clearer sense on strategy.
You line up probably 200 to 250 players where you’ve gone really deep, in terms of evaluating them through the course of your meetings
What about the No. 35 and 37 picks?
What you try and do typically, and what we’ll do this year, is you line up probably 200 to 250 players where you’ve gone really deep, in terms of evaluating them through the course of your meetings.
After that 250, your board kind of comes in chunks, and the reason for that is, by the time you get to some of those players, sign ability plays a role, there’s differences in slots, there might be a guy who’s deciding he’s going to college because at that stage, he’s no longer signable. So at that stage, we’re more attentive to groupings of players. But I would say we’ll go pretty deep on certainly the first 150, and really the first 250.
Are the pitchers grouped into types that you’d want to select?
I believe, it gets back to building a major league staff, they come in all different shapes and sizes. Some are ground-ball specialists, some are big velocity. I do think it’s important for us to identify a type of pitcher who we think we can grow and develop through our development system.
One of the things I felt was of benefit when I was working in Cleveland was matching up the type of player we wanted to select, both from the mindset, makeup, mechanical standpoint and otherwise, with what we felt we can develop and help change along the way. I think that’s important, that alignment in how you’re operating developmentally with what you’re getting from the scouts.
How has your involvement changed?
I would say it hasn’t changed that much, quite frankly. I was very fortunate that I was given a lot of opportunity and responsibility in that space. And at least in this first year, bringing in a very specific strategy into how we want to go into draft meetings and sean’s first year as scouting director and his open mindedness to some new ideas and creative ideas.
Thad and I have spent a lot of time talking about what we’ve previously done in our past organizations in the draft. And we’re applying that to this process. I played a role in that in Cleveland, in creating that process there, and so we’re adapting that process here. I could see in the future that changing to some degree. But this year, I think I’ve been just as heavily involved as I was there.
Is the first pick getting $7.77 million, the maximum allotted?
We don’t have any thought on that right now. Until we get a little bit closer to the draft, I wouldn’t have any comment on that right now.
Can you talk to players about money before the draft?
We can talk prior to the draft with players and learn some things about their next steps and otherwise. But that’s not something we’ve done or we’ve talked about.
Do you want your players in Minneapolis so you can evaluate them with StatCast?
That’s become a little bit more prominent. Some players we already have the information, whether it’s colleges that have it, events throughout the course of the summer that have it. So you’re gaining some of that already. As I’ve told you guys before, there’s never enough information for me. So I think that the more we can gather the better. In my mind, it’s an input, one of the pieces we have as part of our conversation.
Typically when you’re talking at the top end of the draft, in the top 30 picks really, a lot of those guys are going to sign
Do you have to worry about any of the high school guys wanting to go to college?
I think typically when you’re talking at the top end of the draft, in the top 30 picks really, a lot of those guys are going to sign. That’s not a guarantee, not an expectation going in. You have to have that conversation. I think signability more applies to guys as you get a little bit deeper into the draft.
Is it going to be a democratic decision, or will you call the shots?
I think when we’re talking about our draft process, Sean is certainly running the department. He’s a big part of the process. My goal in this, and we’ve been very transparent with Sean about this throughout the course of the process, is we will play a meaningful role in the selection at the top end of this draft. It’s an organizational decision and it’s a responsibility that I have, that Thad has, that Sean has. But I’m confident we’re going to make it collectively. We’re going to get to it together.
How many of the five or six guys you like have you seen?
I couldn’t give you an accurate number off the top of my head, but I would say that the Mike Radcliffs (vice president of player personnel), Deron Johnson, Sean Johnson, Tim O’Neil, any of the cross-checkers, supervisors, that group, they’ve all seen all the guys who are in consideration for one.
It’s all of our supervisors, plus a few of the area guys who have had some crossover. So about a dozen, I’d say, is probably fair.
Do you avoid establishing a floor and a ceiling for players when evaluating?
I would say to clarify on the floor and ceiling. When we’re talking about our own internal players and the growth and development of the guys we have here, I recognize we have to assess skills. But I think the growth of players can be a little bit unknowable. I will say in a draft case, you’re forced to make some decisions on what you think future value is, so I recognize that’s part of the scouting conversation regardless.
I do think we’re trying to identify, at every given pick, who has the, I guess, right makeup indicators — sometimes under the surface indicators — for players that could grow and develop into something more than maybe we are now.
I just think we need to identify who the guy is and what we think he’s best at, and really get to know what he really wants to do
Any concern about drafting Greene or McKay?
Yeah, lot has been made of that this year, more than most years, although I do find that a bit curious, because there have been a number of players over the last ten drafts, if you go back and look at it, that were probably either college position players and pitchers or high school position players and pitchers.
That remains to be seen, whether or not someone can do that. I’m not necessarily saying it’s impossible, but the amount of time … if you talk to any of these guys … that they put in on either the hitting side or the pitching side, to double that, no one’s figured out a way to make more than 24 hours in a day. If someone figures that out, maybe we’ll have an opportunity, but it’s a challenge.
I just think we need to identify who the guy is and what we think he’s best at, and really get to know what he really wants to do.
In some drafts there are players that teams feel a certain way about a player, but he would really prefer to be a position player. You need to know that going into it.
So you make that decision before even he gets into the organization?
It’s likely. But there are certainly some conversations to be had with each individual player about long-term development and giving yourself a chance to at least keep an open mind going into that conversation.
I would say once you set down a path, you want to go down that path fully. But up until that point I think you can continue to have dialogue.
On having longtime Twins employees in the scouting staff
One of the benefits is that we track … we have our scouting reports going back to about the 1999 draft year.
I’ve read more than is probably appropriate [laughter] of a lot of guys, and trying to understand … recognizing that there’s all kind of bias baked into looking back and hindsight bias on players and otherwise.
I’ve tried to just identify some trends, or we’ve had some of our guys look at reports and see things that maybe we’ve historically been really good at, or areas we’ve missed a bit in the draft.
I have a better understanding of our history here, now, than I did when I first took the job, for sure. And I can tell you by and large, these guys … no one works harder than Minnesota Twins scouts — to get information, to learn makeup, to know about the players — so I’m confident we have a great group that I trust.
So you’re evaluating them as well?
I think you have to, right? Organization-wide we’ve been doing that. Once we got in here and trying to learn who people are, hoping that they embrace the idea of change and development, we’ll trust these guys. I’m confident in that.
How many players will you sign?
The average … well, now it’s 40 rounds, back when it was 50 rounds it was maybe a little bit different, but 40 rounds, I think you typically end up signing somewhere around 25 of those guys, roughly, in a given year — sometimes maybe a little bit higher, sometimes a little bit lower.
At least half of the players you select, you’re signing.
Oh, and by the way, can you tell us who you are signing?
You tried a few times, I just didn’t bite.
