I don’t buy into the fact that we’re rebuilding. I don’t buy into the fact that a winning record and still not getting to the postseason could be considered a successful year.
— Brian Dozier at the beginning of the year
The Minnesota Twins pled for open minds before the year began, and now, 23 games into the season, they sit at 12-11. It’s a small sample size in a 162-game season, of course, but despite a 2-7 homestand recently and suffering three blowout losses in their last four series, Minnesota has a winning record. They were 7-16 at this time last year.
“I’m not going to make any outlandish predictions, and I’m not going to put any limitations,” Molitor said before the season, acknowledging that the Twins didn’t do much in the offseason after finishing with 103 losses in 2016. “Baseball is certainly a game of momentum and confidence. [But] if you don’t envision a way you can win, then you shouldn’t be out there.”
When you start a season with nine straight losses, it’s hard to envision a winning season. But after starting the year 4-0 and recovering from a poor homestand, the path to a winning record becomes clearer. It will take some help from the Twins minor league system, however, and assumes that players that are supposed to be stars — Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Joe Mauer — pan out in some capacity.
At the start of May, Sano leads the majors with 25 RBIs and 18 walks. He’s hitting .316/.443/.684 with seven homers, while also playing good defense at third base. As long as he’s productive at the plate, his occasional foibles at the hot corner can be forgiven if he’s a force in the middle of the lineup. But in order for him to be pitched to, he’s going to need protection.
Mauer, who has seen his production decline since being concussed on a foul-tip in 2013, has hit cleanup for the Twins. As have Robbie Grossman, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. All four players have a role in the lineup, but Mauer is better suited as an on-base guy higher in the order, if his play improves, while Grossman is the on-base guy who can hit against lefties when Mauer sits, and Kepler and Polanco are good defensive players that provide supplemental offense in the lineup.
Ideally, ByungHo Park or Kennys Vargas will fill that role. Park is in his age-30 season and currently on the minor league seven-day disabled list, but had a strong Spring Training and given his age and salary — he signed a four-year $12 million deal last season — he should be in the major leagues. Vargas, who was recently called up, is in his age-26 season and is not considered a prospect at this point in his career. He has hit fifth (twice), sixth (once) and seventh (once) in starting lineups this season.
This naturally leads to Mauer, 34, who just completed the worst April in his career. He is hitting .225/.271/.275 but has only struck out six times. If he continues at this rate, he likely will be dropped in the lineup. But if he’s able to replicate the numbers he’s had since the concussion, a .267/.353/.380 line, he could be the on-base percentage guy ahead of sluggers like Sano, Park and Vargas. For his part, Mauer seems unfazed about his rough April.
“I’ve been feeling pretty good,” he told Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. “I just really haven’t had a whole lot of results here early. I think it’s just been frustrating because I’ve been making some good contact and just not having any results from it. That’s baseball. Hopefully that shifts soon.”
“I think Joe has played really well,” Molitor added. “If you want to just look at his raw numbers, the people who like to question Joe will use that, but I look at his lack of swing-and-misses, his consistent contact. He’s playing a tremendous first base on top of that. It’s been flawless over there on the defensive side.”
Here’s an example of what a filled-out lineup would look like: 1. Dozier (2B), 2. Kepler (RF), 3. Mauer (1B), 4. Sano (3B), 5. Park or Vargas (DH), 6. Jorge Polanco (SS), 7. Eddie Rosario (LF), 8. Jason Castro (C) and 9. Byron Buxton (CF) with a bench of Chris Gimenez (or another backup catcher), Ehire Adrianza (a shortstop the Twins picked up off of waivers), Grossman (fourth outfielder, platoon for Mauer against lefties) and Eduardo Escobar (utility guy).
On the pitching side of things, the Twins are going to need help from the minor leagues. Not only is it unlikely that all five of the team’s current starters will last the whole year — Adalberto Mejia has been sent down, and unfortunately injuries always seem to be part of the equation with pitchers in general — but the pitching staff could use a jolt of energy from the team’s promising young arms.
Minnesota could go with Ervin Santana as its ace and then four “Five and Dive” pitchers if the bullpen were more dynamic. Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Hector Santiago and a combination of Jose Berrios, Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero could, at the very least, reliably provide five to six innings a night and put a good bullpen in place to win the game.
In order to make this work, however, the Twins would have to supplement their current bullpen with arms from the minors. Brandon Kintzler appears locked in as the team’s closer, Ryan Pressly has stuff, Taylor Rogers is a crafty lefty, Tyler Duffey has had success as a converted starter and Matt Belisle is a trusty veteran with a corner locker. Those players could be supplemented by hard-throwing prospects like Tyler Jay or Nick Burdi — two prospects who were supposed to reach the majors shortly after being drafted — as well as J.T. Chargois, who already has major league experience, or Jake Reed.
Without an airtight bullpen, however, the “Five and Dive” strategy does not work.
This isn’t to say that the Twins won’t regress and end up a 70-75 win team this year — that certainly could happen. But even this early in the season the Twins look like a functional team. That’s hardly high praise, but it’s quite the contrast from the “total system failure” of last season and good enough to merit a winning record. This team is talented enough to get back to where they were two years ago, which really shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
