It’s pretty simple: A few days back — before I had to leave town for a funeral — I pinged my social media accounts for questions. Now, I’m here to answer them, along with a few others I’ve grabbed out of my mentions.
Let’s get right to it.
https://twitter.com/SamPate5/status/826999900030324736
I wrote here that I think the Twins will win 80 games and I’m not ready to back down from it. I’ve seen a number of projections — both published and unpublished — that have them in the vicinity of 75-78 wins, so apparently my take wasn’t as hot as some might have thought. I think last year’s team drastically underperformed its talent — I think it was maybe a 74ish-win team on talent alone — and I also think there will be some young players who will get better as the season goes on. I think of it this way: Only Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana have tough hills to climb to have better 2017 seasons than 2016. As weird as it sounds, I think that’s a good thing.
Interesting question — the answer is….not really. At least not yet. In the minors, Buxton showed fairly good discipline, with a walk rate routinely in the high single digits or even low double digits. That waned in the higher levels a bit, including not walking much more in Triple-A (around 6.7 percent) than he has so far in the big leagues (6.2 percent through 469 plate appearances). The AL average in walk rate was 8.0 percent last season — something a handful of Twins with appreciable plate appearances topped. Robbie Grossman of all players led the way with a 14.1 percent walk rate, with Joe Mauer (13.7 percent), Kennys Vargas (12.5 percent), Miguel Sano (10.9 percent), Max Kepler (9.4 percent), Brian Dozier (8.8 percent) and Byungho Park (8.6 percent) all exceeding league average.
But which of those guys make sense to lead off? Mauer makes some sense, especially given his continued lack of punch. So too does Grossman, depending on how much he plays. Vargas, Park and Sano all make no sense based on their size and what they’re expected to do in the offense, and Dozier, well….that’s what he did for much of the season after Eduardo Nunez was traded. Basically, there isn’t the ideal leadoff-type hitter on this team right now, or really in the near future. Right now, Dexter Fowler is kind of the gold standard for the modern leadoff hitter in my opinion. He can run — which isn’t a prerequisite but surely doesn’t hurt — and gets on base at a rate of roughly 10 percent higher than his batting average year in and year out. Basically, if he hits .250, you can expect an OBP of .350. If he hits .280 like he did last year, the OBP will check in around .380, or in his case last season, a blazing-hot .393.
With the absence of this sort of player in the system, does it make sense to put Buxton at the top of the order? Maybe….from a number of different standpoints. If the Twins want to get him as much exposure as possible, having him bat leadoff would be good for his development. In my informal research, I found that each spot in the lineup is worth roughly 15 more plate appearances over the course of the season than the next one down. That’s kind of a big deal, as Twins leadoff batters got 761 plate appearances last season while No. 9 hitters got 625. Assuming Buxton played every game — hypothetically — that’s a nearly 140 plate appearance difference! To reframe that, he literally batted 138 times in his first big league season (2015) alone. So that’s one easy way to squeeze extra value out of Buxton, who should be a very useful player (as in WAR-based value) due to defense and baserunning. So why not get him more plate appearances to get more value?
But if Buxton becomes the player he’s supposed to be, he’ll either be the best hitter on his team — someone who should hit maybe second or third — or he’ll be a lower OBP kind of guy with good pop who strikes out quite a bit. That’s not really a great leadoff hitter. If the plan is for Buxton to lead off long-term, I think Mauer or Grossman — or even Kepler — should start the season atop the order and then pass the torch once Buxton shows September wasn’t exactly a fluke. If he can’t do that, those guys are equipped to stay atop the order.
My long-winded answer is that I’m not sure what the right idea is atop the batting order for this team, but here’s how I might look at it as of this second:
- Mauer leads off full-time
2. Grossman leads off
3. Grossman leads off v. LHP, Kepler leads off v. RHP
4. Someone completely off the radar — like Jorge Polanco — leads off
5. Buxton leads off from the start of the season
There’s a lot to unpack here, but I think it’s safe to say I wouldn’t hit Dozier leadoff anymore.
I don’t think it’s necessarily a downgrade. I think it gives Mientkiewicz an opportunity to work with the next wave of good young Twins — something he clearly is good at — and also allows him to be closer to his home, which I believe is in Estero, Fla., which is about 20 minutes for where the MIracle play. There should be plenty of interesting guys passing through Fort Myers this year, like LaMonte Wade, Luis Arraez, Travis Blankenhorn, Jaylin Davis, Zander Wiel and perhaps others.
I think Napoli would bring some stability to the lineup, but could be cost prohibitive based on what he brings to the lineup compared to what a Park or Vargas might. However, they are some positives with Napoli. He’s considered a very good veteran leader, and the opportunity to add bats like his to the lineup doesn’t come around every day. If the Twins were to roll with Park and Vargas into the season at DH only to find out neither is ready to grab the role, there’s no going back to Napoli. On the flip side, if the Twins go with Napoli on a one-year deal — something that is all he’s likely to get at his age and at this point in the offseason — but someone like Vargas or Park are beating down the door to take his job, they have the option to move Napoli, one way or another. Vargas was granted a fourth option year by MLB and Park has two option years left. It might make sense for both to start the year at Triple-A and force the Twins to make a move rather than vice versa.
It’s hard to know how much veteran leadership matters, but the Torii Hunter-led Twins won 83 games in 2015 and lost 103 games without him but with most of the same roster in 2016. Clearly, leadership doesn’t mean quite that much, but
Despite the narrow nature of the question, you’d be hard-pressed to find many above-average shortstops on the Twins roster at all in recent years. The Twins obviously didn’t draft J.J. Hardy, while Cristian Guzman came over in a trade with the Yankees. Pat Meares doesn’t really qualify as above average, either. I think the answer is Jay Bell, whom the Twins took eighth overall in 1984 before trading him to Cleveland a year later in the Bert Blyleven deal. Bell hit .265/.343/.416 with good defense and 37.9 fWAR over a big-league career which spanned from 1986-2003.
Maybe the Twins are victims of the “Jay Bell curse?”
I think it’s Detroit. I think you can pencil in Cleveland atop the division and perhaps Chicago at the bottom — despite their commitment to the rebuild, they still have some talent — and the rest is a fairly complicated jumble. I hate that it’s a factor, but the passing of Yordano Ventura hurts a Kansas City team that was already coming off a down season. It’ll help to have full, healthy seasons of guys like Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon, but I think the Tigers just have a little bit more talent. I think the Twins, Tigers and Royals could all finish somewhere between 70-80 wins, with Cleveland around 87-88 and Chicago at maybe 65-70. It’s a weird division.
They are pretty similar, aren’t they? I asked Keith Law this, and he told me he views them as pretty interchangeable. Berrios has a better breaking ball, but De Leon hides the ball better. That seems to line up with what we’ve heard pundits say over the past few months with De Leon. That is, that maybe he’s more of a deceptive strikeout guy than a stuff strikeout guy. That might be why he’s pegged as a No. 3 starter type despite his high-end strikeout rates in the minors.
I can’t see any way Perkins is ready to close to start the season, if even again. He’s coming back from a very, very brutal shoulder injury and I don’t think the Twins want to put that kind of role on him right out of the gates. Remember how slow Joe Nathan was eased back in? That was coming off Tommy John surgery, which is far less invasive. I think Kintzler starts the season as closer, but don’t sleep on Ryan Pressly or J.T. Chargois. Both have the stuff to do it, while Kintzler’s groundball penchant makes him a really great option to get out of dicey jams in the sixth and seventh innings.
Thanks to everyone who submitted a question! Depending on popularity, we might look to make this a semi-regular thing.
