The Thanksgiving Day loss to the Detroit Lions might have been the low point for the Minnesota Vikings when it came to third-down conversions.
As a team, they went 2 of 10 for the game, well below their season-long success rate of over 38 percent.
And that’s not even the most maddening part.
On seven of Minnesota’s eight failures, quarterback Sam Bradford completed a pass short of the line to gain, averaging less than five yards per attempt on those plays. His eighth failure cost the Vikings the game, as he threw a late interception to Darius Slay on 3rd and 7 following an illegal formation penalty on the play before.
Not every game went as badly on third down as the one at Ford Field did, but it was nonetheless a glaring issue at times for an offense that was not predicated on big-strike plays. Due to a West Coast style offense led by interim offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur that focused on shorter passes — in part because of the offensive line’s limitations — many Vikings drives faltered simply because of how many times they forced themselves to move the chains to move the ball into enemy territory. They finished the season fifth-worst in the NFL in yards per play (5.0).
Of course, the running game can be blamed for many of the third-and-long situations, considering it averaged less than three yards per carry for much of the year. But when put in those situations, the Vikings were extremely poor.
Sam Bradford was 6 of 48 getting first downs on third-down attempts of 10 yards or more last season — converting one out of every eight. For reference, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford converted about one out of every three.
Bradford likely set the completion percentage record because he OFTEN attempted the same type of high percentage throws regardless of situation
The baffling part about Bradford was that he completed 25 passes short of the sticks on third and long last season, routinely taking the easiest throw on a play where the Vikings needed a shot down field. Even on third-down attempts between seven and nine yards, Bradford converted a third of his passes (11 of 33) short of the line to gain. These are the same situations where Teddy Bridgewater excelled before his injury.
i like converting third downs do you like converting third downs pic.twitter.com/gYnuZTvHJP
— Arif Hasan (@ArifHasanNFL) July 25, 2017
Where Bradford made up for these deficiencies was in his third-and-short and fourth-and-short passing, completing 70.6 percent of throws, better than Rodgers and Stafford. To put it simply — and it’s not exactly groundbreaking information — Bradford likely set the completion percentage record because he often attempted the same type of high percentage throws regardless of situation.
As one might expect, head coach Mike Zimmer is looking for more conversions this year, especially in the red zone.
“I look at the stats,” said Zimmer, “and you convert a third down in the red-zone you usually get seven points on either side of the ball, right? Whereas obviously if you don’t get third downs, you kick field goals. There were a lot of points that were given up there.”
Between Blair Walsh and Kai Forbath, the Vikings attempted 18 field goals between 20-39 yards, meaning most of those drives stalled in the red zone. The Vikings were 29th last year in red zone touchdown percentage at 46 percent.
Bradford and Shurmur, now equipped with a seemingly stronger offensive line and running back corps, as well as a full offseason to collaborate, are busy at work trying to improve the passing game. Late in the season Shurmur and Bradford spoke of the need to generate a better vertical passing game, but with the exception of several deep passes at Jacksonville and a long touchdown pass to Adam Thielen at Green Bay, the results were not necessarily there.
“Figure out a way to create more explosive plays,” said Bradford on Sunday, “and try to find a way to get the ball downfield a little bit more. That way we’re not having to work so hard on a drive with 12, 13, 14 plays.”
This strategy will certainly apply to third downs, where the Vikings can’t afford to go 23.5 percent on 3rd and 7+ again. Bradford pointed to Zimmer’s emphasis on situational offense during OTAs and training camp as a step in the right direction.
“If we keep ourselves on the field and give us more opportunities to convert more third downs,” said Bradford, “the better we’re going to be.”
