Vikings

DRAFT GUIDE: Arif Hasan's Consensus Board

Photo Credit: Jerry Lai (USA Today Sports)

By Arif Hasan - April 23, 2018

OTHER CONSENSUS BOARD CONTENT:
Forecasters vs Evaluators
Most Polarizing Players
2018 Big Board Awards
Top 20 Analytic Profiles

The Consensus Big Board is here! We’ve gathered of 48 big boards this year from talented evaluators and draft analysts across the spectrum, including third-party scouting organizations like Optimum Scouting, big media groups like ESPN and NFL Network and independent blogs like NFL Rough Draft.

In 2014 and 2015, the consensus big board did a phenomenal job identifying talent, doing about as well as the NFL did in the draft itself and better than 24 of 27 draft boards — and better than the big boards presented by Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Lance Zierlein and a slough of other talented evaluators.

Last year, the board did an excellent job identifying promising undrafted free agents, like Anthony Walker, Corey Clement, Chad Wheeler, Bryan Cox Jr., Travis Rudolph, Ricky Seals-Jones, Kyle Kalis, Hardy Nickerson Jr., Dylan Cole and Erik Magnuson… as well as the Vikings’ own Eric Wilson and Tashawn Bower.

Already, we’ve used the Consensus Board to identify the most polarizing players in the draft and we can see which prospects draw the starkest differences between Evaluators and Forecasters, something we did last year to great effect.

Every year, we post the board with different kinds of position designations and we’ll be doing that once again. Those positions are QB, RBF, RBC, FB, WRF, WRS, TE, OT, OG, C, DL1T, DL3T, DL5T, EDGE, LB, CB, S, K and P.

That’s a lot of different positions—much more than usual—but teams draft roles just as easily as they draft players. Knowing where a player fits is more important than anything else.

Most of these are intuitive, but a few need some explanation. WRF/WRS refer to feature wide receivers and slot wide receivers. RBF/RBC refers to feature running backs — bellcows that typically (but not always) weigh 210 pounds or more. RBC refers to “change-of-pace” backs, an admittedly imprecise term that captures the running backs that are expected to be complementary pieces that specialize in passing game performance.

Instead of 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends, we have edge rushers. Not all edge rushers will be rushing the edge all the time, and for some schemes, having the overhand defender play coverage responsibilities will be important (Von Miller is more valuable than J.J. Watt in this way). But, for the most part, the most important ability they have is to put pressure on the quarterback. They are more alike than different.

DL1T, DL3T and DL5T refer to different defensive line positions. DL1Ts are essentially nose tackles lined up between the center and guard of the offensive line. Those are players like Linval Joseph, Danny Shelton and Dontari Poe. This year, the top DL1T is Vita Vea from Washington.

DL3T are pass-rushing tackles—Aaron Donald, Sharrif Floyd and Geno Atkins. The top DL3T on the consensus board is Michigan’s Maurice Hurst.

The final defensive line assignment is reserved for 3-4 defensive ends, though it doesn’t quite capture the breadth of the position. They can include players like J.J. Watt, Mike Neal and Joey Bosa. This year, the top DL5T is Rasheem Green.

The issue, of course, that these things are messy. Green is being projected to play on the edge by some analysts, and some like Da’Ron Payne further on the outside as a five-technique. Kalen Ballage is listed here as a change-of-pace back despite being massive among his peers, and though Saquon Barkley will certainly feature in any offense he’s placed in, much of his value will come from the passing game.

Hercules Mata’afa played on the inside his entire college career, but many think he should play on the edge in the NFL. Take all the DL positional groupings with a grain of salt.

Next to the player’s positional rank, you’ll see a variance score. The higher that score is, the more evaluators disagreed on that player’s ranking. People will interpret that differently: for some it’s an expression of having a high ceiling or a low floor. That means for lowly-ranked players, a higher variance score can be good because it means they have more upside.

For other people, it means more uncertainty in the evaluation. If people all disagree on this prospect, what does it mean he can do, and does it mean his skills are more of a projection than an evaluation? That may mean disregarding that player more than otherwise.

The average variance score is 100, and that has been adjusted for a player’s overall rank position (because generally speaking there is more variance the further down you go). Naturally, as more boards are added, the more variance we’ll see — already, Josh Allen’s variance has risen from 187 to 201, by far the most we’ve ever seen for a prospect.

Below are the top 300.

Rank	Player	School	Position	Pos Rk	Variance
1	Saquon Barkley	Penn State	RBF	1	101.3
2	Quenton Nelson	Notre Dame	OG	1	89.9
3	Bradley Chubb	North Carolina State	EDGE	1	87.1
4	Josh Rosen	UCLA	QB	1	100.5
5	Roquan Smith	Georgia	LB	1	84.4
6	Minkah Fitzpatrick	Alabama	S	1	83.6
7	Derwin James	Florida State	S	2	83.5
8	Sam Darnold	USC	QB	2	145.2
9	Denzel Ward	Ohio State	CB	1	82.1
10	Tremaine Edmunds	Virginia Tech	LB	2	91.5
11	Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	QB	3	113.3
12	Vita Vea	Washington	DL1T	1	87.1
13	Harold Landry	Boston College	EDGE	2	103.8
14	Derrius Guice	LSU	RBF	2	88.3
15	Isaiah Wynn	Georgia	OG	2	95.1
16	Jaire Alexander	Louisville	CB	2	95.5
17	Mike McGlinchey	Notre Dame	OT	1	85.5
18	Josh Jackson	Iowa	CB	3	128.8
19	Maurice Hurst	Michigan	DL3T	1	116.6
20	Calvin Ridley	Alabama	WRF	1	101.9
21	Lamar Jackson	Louisville	QB	4	116.8
22	Rashaan Evans	Alabama	LB	3	88.3
23	Connor Williams	Texas	OT	2	105.0
24	Da’Ron Payne	Alabama	DL1T	2	92.7
25	Will Hernandez	UTEP	OG	3	80.6
26	Marcus Davenport	UTSA	EDGE	3	97.6
27	Josh Allen	Wyoming	QB	5	182.0
28	Taven Bryan	Florida	DL3T	2	89.9
29	James Daniels	Iowa	OC	1	99.5
30	Leighton Vander Esch	Boise State	LB	4	108.8
31	Courtland Sutton	SMU	WRF	2	104.6
32	D.J. Moore	Maryland	WRF	3	83.2
33	Mike Hughes	Central Florida	CB	4	93.2
34	Billy Price	Ohio State	OG	4	87.4
35	Ronald Jones II	USC	RBF	3	86.0
36	Sony Michel	Georgia	RBF	4	79.2
37	Isaiah Oliver	Colorado	CB	5	83.1
38	Ronnie Harrison	Alabama	S	3	105.3
39	Nick Chubb	Georgia	RBF	5	75.6
40	Dallas Goedert	South Dakota State	TE	1	99.4
41	Frank Ragnow	Arkansas	OC	2	110.0
42	Carlton Davis	Auburn	CB	6	117.2
43	Justin Reid	Stanford	S	4	88.2
44	Christian Kirk	Texas A&M	WRF	4	94.0
45	Kolton Miller	UCLA	OT	3	108.4
46	Mike Gesicki	Penn State	TE	2	81.5
47	Sam Hubbard	Ohio State	EDGE	4	93.8
48	Anthony Miller	Memphis	WRS	1	82.8
49	Tyrell Crosby	Oregon	OT	4	88.9
50	James Washington	Oklahoma State	WRF	5	81.9
51	Austin Corbett	Nevada	OG	5	113.4
52	Donte Jackson	LSU	CB	7	117.5
53	Harrison Phillips	Stanford	DL1T	3	116.6
54	Hayden Hurst	South Carolina	TE	3	115.5
55	Mason Rudolph	Oklahoma State	QB	6	120.1
56	Lorenzo Carter	Georgia	EDGE	5	109.0
57	Jessie Bates III	Wake Forest	S	5	105.7
58	Josh Sweat	Florida State	EDGE	6	100.5
59	Kerryon Johnson	Auburn	RBF	6	91.6
60	D.J. Chark	LSU	WRF	6	98.6
61	Braden Smith	Auburn	OG	6	82.5
62	Nathan Shepherd	Fort Hays State	DL3T	3	98.3
63	Mark Andrews	Oklahoma	TE	4	100.4
64	Rashaad Penny	San Diego State	RBF	7	89.1
65	Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	Oklahoma	LB	5	102.0
66	Arden Key	LSU	EDGE	7	108.0
67	Dante Pettis	Washington	WRF	7	95.1
68	Orlando Brown	Oklahoma	OT	5	102.6
69	Malik Jefferson	Texas	LB	6	93.5
70	Martinas Rankin	Mississippi State	OT	6	93.0
71	Michael Gallup	Colorado State	WRF	8	97.7
72	Brian O’Neill	Pittsburgh	OT	7	117.9
73	Rasheem Green	USC	DL5T	1	117.6
74	Uchenna Nwosu	USC	EDGE	8	101.5
75	Chukwuma Okorafor	Western Michigan	OT	8	100.8
76	Duke Ejiofor	Wake Forest	EDGE	9	99.8
77	B.J. Hill	North Carolina State	DL1T	4	103.0
78	Jamarco Jones	Ohio State	OT	9	103.5
79	Derrick Nnadi	Florida State	DL1T	5	89.1
80	Equanimeous St. Brown	Notre Dame	WRF	9	101.7
81	Kemoko Turay	Rutgers	EDGE	10	103.0
82	Royce Freeman	Oregon	RBF	8	98.2
83	M.J. Stewart	North Carolina	CB	8	95.4
84	DaeSean Hamilton	Penn State	WRF	10	88.3
85	Fred Warner	BYU	LB	8	107.4
86	Tim Settle	Virginia Tech	DL1T	6	109.4
87	Darius Leonard	South Carolina State	LB	7	115.7
88	Jerome Baker	Ohio State	LB	9	95.7
89	Duke Dawson	Florida	CB	9	101.1
90	Kyzir White	West Virginia	S	6	101.6
91	Quenton Meeks	Stanford	CB	11	107.5
92	Anthony Averett	Alabama	CB	10	99.3
93	Ian Thomas	Indiana	TE	5	96.7
94	Deon Cain	Clemson	WRF	11	93.6
95	Da’Shawn Hand	Alabama	DL5T	2	105.8
96	Holton Hill	Texas	CB	12	100.4
97	DeShon Elliott	Texas	S	7	94.6
98	Kyle Lauletta	Richmond	QB	7	102.3
99	Josey Jewell	Iowa	LB	10	94.1
100	Geron Christian	Louisville	OT	10	149.5
101	Nyheim Hines	North Carolina State	RBC	1	98.7
102	Shaquem Griffin	Central Florida	LB	11	91.6
103	Rashaan Gaulden	Tennessee	CB	13	109.6
104	Armani Watts	Texas A&M	S	9	93.0
105	Terrell Edmunds	Virginia Tech	S	10	106.6
106	Marcus Allen	Penn State	S	8	95.8
107	John Kelly	Tennessee	RBF	9	91.0
108	Mason Cole	Michigan	OC	3	90.6
109	Nick Nelson	Wisconsin	CB	14	98.1
110	Wyatt Teller	Virginia Tech	OG	7	90.1
111	Jaylen Samuels	North Carolina State	RBC	2	93.7
112	Tre’Quan Smith	Central Florida	WRF	12	86.0
113	Genard Avery	Memphis	LB	12	107.0
114	Hercules Mata’afa	Washington State	EDGE	12	96.5
115	Tyquan Lewis	Ohio State	EDGE	11	95.2
116	Chad Thomas	Miami (FL)	EDGE	13	94.0
117	Isaac Yiadom	Boston College	CB	15	90.6
118	Mark Walton	Miami (FL)	RBF	10	91.2
119	Jeff Holland	Auburn	EDGE	14	109.8
120	Alex Cappa	Humboldt State	OT	11	94.6
121	Deadrin Senat	South Florida	DL1T	7	96.3
122	Mike White	Western Kentucky	QB	8	90.0
123	Kalen Ballage	Arizona State	RBC	3	100.8
124	Dorian O’Daniel	Clemson	LB	13	102.0
125	Marcell Ateman	Oklahoma State	WRF	13	107.4
126	RJ McIntosh	Miami (FL)	DL3T	4	93.1
127	Dorance Armstrong Jr.	Kansas	EDGE	15	100.4
128	Andrew Brown	Virginia	DL5T	3	94.7
129	Jordan Whitehead	Pittsburgh	S	11	98.7
130	Tarvarus McFadden	Florida State	CB	16	95.4
131	Antonio Callaway	Florida	WRS	2	101.0
132	Dalton Schultz	Stanford	TE	6	99.6
133	Cedrick Wilson	Boise State	WRF	14	90.6
134	Chris Herndon	Miami (FL)	TE	7	96.8
135	Luke Falk	Washington State	QB	9	93.3
136	Joseph Noteboom	TCU	OT	12	92.6
137	Breeland Speaks	Mississippi	DL3T	6	93.8
138	Jalyn Holmes	Ohio State	DL5T	4	88.3
139	Keke Coutee	Texas Tech	WRS	3	85.7
140	Desmond Harrison	West Georgia	OT	13	94.0
141	Will Richardson	North Carolina State	OT	15	96.9
142	Micah Kiser	Virginia	LB	14	88.3
143	D.J. Reed	Kansas State	CB	17	90.3
144	Brandon Parker	North Carolina A&T	OT	14	96.7
145	Allen Lazard	Iowa State	WRF	15	85.4
146	Trenton Thompson	Georgia	DL3T	5	91.4
147	Quin Blanding	Virginia	S	12	86.1
148	Oren Burks	Vanderbilt	LB	15	112.2
149	Parry Nickerson	Tulane	CB	18	99.4
150	Troy Fumagalli	Wisconsin	TE	8	87.4
151	Scott Quessenberry	UCLA	OC	4	93.6
152	J’Mon Moore	Missouri	WRF	16	79.4
153	Auden Tate	Florida State	WRF	17	92.2
154	Tarvarius Moore	Southern Mississippi	S	14	203.2
155	Dane Cruikshank	Arizona	S	13	121.5
156	Bo Scarbrough	Alabama	RBF	11	78.8
157	Justin Jones	North Carolina State	DL1T	8	85.3
158	Simmie Cobbs Jr.	Indiana	WRF	18	89.9
159	Foley Fatukasi	Connecticut	DL1T	9	97.4
160	Josh Adams	Notre Dame	RBF	12	89.4
161	Marquis Haynes	Mississippi	EDGE	16	81.9
162	Jack Cichy	Wisconsin	LB	17	89.2
163	P.J. Hall	Sam Houston State	DL3T	7	118.4
164	Kylie Fitts	Utah	EDGE	17	78.5
165	Trey Quinn	SMU	WRF	19	80.4
166	Deontay Burnett	USC	WRF	20	82.6
167	Kevin Toliver II	LSU	CB	19	110.7
168	Tony Brown	Alabama	CB	20	120.3
169	Akrum Wadley	Iowa	RBF	13	82.7
170	Colby Gossett	Appalachian State	OG	8	98.7
171	Will Clapp	LSU	OG	9	78.7
172	Darius Phillips	Western Michigan	CB	21	83.6
173	Kentavius Street	North Carolina State	DL3T	8	87.7
174	Tegray Scales	Indiana	LB	16	82.5
175	Jordan Lasley	UCLA	WRF	21	79.2
176	Durham Smythe	Notre Dame	TE	9	88.4
177	Christian Sam	Arizona State	LB	18	94.3
178	Ade Aruna	Tulane	EDGE	18	85.0
179	Godwin Igwebuike	Northwestern	S	15	83.5
180	Avonte Maddox	Pittsburgh	CB	22	75.9
181	Poona Ford	Texas	DL3T	9	74.7
182	Skai Moore	South Carolina	LB	19	130.2
183	Levi Wallace	Alabama	CB	23	79.4
184	Kameron Kelly	San Diego State	S	16	90.8
185	Tyler Conklin	Central Michigan	TE	10	103.5
186	Kendrick Norton	Miami (FL)	DL1T	10	87.7
187	Cole Madison	Washington State	OT	16	96.8
188	Leon Jacobs	Wisconsin	LB	20	106.4
189	Korey Robertson	Southern Mississippi	WRF	22	97.5
190	Siran Neal	Jacksonville State	S	17	74.6
191	Mike McCray	Michigan	LB	21	79.6
192	Skyler Phillips	Idaho State	OG	10	92.3
193	Kurt Benkert	Virginia	QB	10	74.3
194	Bilal Nichols	Delaware	DL5T	5	90.5
195	Shaun Dion Hamilton	Alabama	LB	22	83.7
196	Jaleel Scott	New Mexico State	WRF	26	90.8
197	Javon Wims	Georgia	WRF	23	79.3
198	Byron Pringle	Kansas State	WRF	24	80.1
199	Daurice Fountain	Northern Iowa	WRF	25	99.2
200	Timon Parris	Stony Brook	OT	17	100.2
201	Toby Weathersby	LSU	OT	18	91.1
202	J.C. Jackson	Maryland	CB	24	100.2
203	Dylan Cantrell	Texas Tech	WRF	27	94.6
204	Damon Webb	Ohio State	S	18	79.5
205	Richie James	Middle Tennessee	WRS	4	101.1
206	Jeremy Reaves	South Alabama	S	20	128.6
207	Dimitri Flowers	Oklahoma	FB	1	74.6
208	Joe Ostman	Central Michigan	EDGE	19	116.9
209	Justin Jackson	Northwestern	RBC	4	79.2
210	Jordan Akins	Central Florida	TE	11	95.2
211	James Looney	California	DL3T	10	114.7
212	Matthew Thomas	Florida State	LB	23	94.0
213	Brett Toth	Army	OT	19	76.3
214	Trayvon Henderson	Hawaii	S	19	95.0
215	Will Dissly	Washington	TE	12	108.6
216	Davin Bellamy	Georgia	LB	24	77.9
217	Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	Toledo	EDGE	20	79.2
218	Sean Welsh	Iowa	OG	11	75.2
219	Brian Allen	Michigan State	OC	5	77.8
220	Lowell Lotulelei	Utah	DL1T	11	92.9
221	Riley Ferguson	Memphis	QB	11	71.4
222	Taylor Hearn	Clemson	OG	12	95.8
223	Troy Apke	Penn State	S	21	93.4
224	Braxton Berrios	Miami (FL)	WRS	5	72.4
225	Jester Weah	Pittsburgh	WRF	29	74.4
226	Ito Smith	Southern Mississippi	RBC	5	81.1
227	Darren Carrington II	Utah	WRF	28	72.0
228	Christian Campbell	Penn State	CB	27	146.1
229	Trevon Young	Louisville	EDGE	21	101.0
230	Bradley Bozeman	Alabama	OC	6	98.1
231	Brandon Facyson	Virginia Tech	CB	26	82.3
232	Chase Litton	Marshall	QB	12	73.1
233	Tony Adams	North Carolina State	OG	13	116.3
234	Darrel Williams	LSU	RBF	14	92.5
235	Phillip Lindsay	Colorado	RBC	6	82.8
236	Taron Johnson	Weber State	CB	25	74.8
237	Marcell Frazier	Missouri	EDGE	22	90.2
238	Michael Dickson	Texas	P	1	125.4
239	Jamil Demby	Maine	OG	14	87.0
240	Chase Edmonds	Fordham	FB	2	86.8
241	Ryan Izzo	Florida State	TE	13	87.2
242	Natrell Jamerson	Wisconsin	S	22	90.5
243	Jake Wieneke	South Dakota State	WRF	30	76.9
244	Sam Jones	Arizona State	OG	15	83.7
245	Justin Lawler	SMU	EDGE	23	89.2
246	Grant Haley	Penn State	CB	28	87.9
247	Jason Cabinda	Penn State	LB	29	81.5
248	Nick Gates	Nebraska	OG	16	89.4
249	Coleman Shelton	Washington	OC	7	89.2
250	Greg Stroman	Virginia Tech	CB	31	95.9
251	Nick DeLuca	North Dakota State	LB	26	92.2
252	Justin Watson	Penn	WRF	31	101.8
253	Tre Flowers	Oklahoma State	S	23	96.2
254	Tray Matthews	Auburn	S	24	92.0
255	Kahlil McKenzie Jr.	Tennessee	DL1T	12	81.3
256	Danny Johnson	Southern	CB	33	86.5
257	Peter Kalambayi	Stanford	LB	31	90.6
258	Davontae Harris	Illinois State	CB	30	96.9
259	JK Scott	Alabama	P	2	98.6
260	Jordan Wilkins	Mississippi	RBF	16	90.9
261	Roc Thomas	Jacksonville State	RBF	15	96.3
262	Ryan Nall	Oregon State	FB	3	80.9
263	Chris Worley	Ohio State	LB	32	84.0
264	Azeem Victor	Washington	LB	27	90.7
265	Kenny Young	UCLA	LB	25	91.1
266	Keishawn Bierria	Washington	LB	30	90.8
267	Michael Joseph	Dubuque	CB	32	83.8
268	Garret Dooley	Wisconsin	EDGE	24	81.7
269	Dejon Allen	Hawaii	OG	17	98.8
270	David Bright	Stanford	OT	23	91.1
271	Chandon Sullivan	Georgia State	CB	29	85.4
272	Tanner Lee	Nebraska	QB	13	86.5
273	JoJo Wicker	Arizona State	DL5T	6	88.0
274	JaVon Rolland-Jones	Arkansas State	EDGE	25	98.6
275	Andre Smith	North Carolina	LB	28	85.4
276	KC McDermott	Miami (FL)	OT	21	84.0
277	Greg Senat	Wagner	OT	20	88.6
278	Joel Iyiegbuniwe	Western Kentucky	LB	33	87.7
279	Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	WRS	6	92.1
280	Tracy Walker	Louisiana-Lafayette	S	25	93.8
281	Daniel Carlson	Auburn	PK	1	102.6
282	Eddy Pineiro	Florida	PK	2	93.2
283	Cody O’Connell	Washington State	OG	18	88.2
284	Arrion Springs	Oregon	CB	34	104.3
285	Zachary Crabtree	Oklahoma State	OT	22	86.0
286	Logan Woodside	Toledo	QB	14	84.7
287	John Atkins	Georgia	DL1T	13	87.5
288	Nic Shimonek	Texas Tech	QB	15	84.1
289	Maea Teuhema	Southeastern Louisiana	OG	19	94.4
290	Darious Williams	UAB	CB	35	111.6
291	Jaryd Jones-Smith	Pittsburgh	OT	24	89.2
292	Josh Kalu	Nebraska	S	27	91.3
293	Stephen Roberts	Auburn	S	26	89.2
294	Marcus Baugh	Ohio State	TE	14	90.7
295	John Franklin-Myers	Stephen F Austin	DL5T	7	91.0
296	Jullian Taylor	Temple	DL3T	11	104.1
297	Nick Bawden	San Diego State	FB	4	93.9
298	Kamrin Moore	Boston College	CB	36	93.3
299	Jordan Thomas	Oklahoma	CB	37	97.7
300	Brandon Silvers	Troy	QB	16	95.4

(See what last year’s Consensus Board looked like.)

Follow the links to enjoy the rest of the Zone Coverage Draft Guide.

TOP 40 PLAYERS
POSITION RANKINGS
VIKINGS DRAFT TRENDS
VIKINGS NEEDS
VIKINGS TARGETS

Arif Hasan

Arif Hasan has written for sites all across the internet and his work has been featured in the Athletic, Pro Football Network, Star Tribune, LA Times, Forbes, SB Nation, the Bleacher Report and MSNBC. He currently also writes for the Wide Left Substack. You can find him on twitter at @ArifHasanNFL.

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