The Vikings have an enormous decision to make with free agency coming at the quarterback position. Naturally, new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo will have some input, and so will head coach Mike Zimmer, but it will come down to — as most everything does in the NFL — dollars and cents.
What those quarterbacks can get on the free market will help determine how easy it will be to choose who the next face of the franchise will be. If the Vikings prefer Case Keenum over Teddy Bridgewater, they will have to weigh the magnitude of their preference against the difference in their contract.
The salary cap will rise again, and teams are estimated to have about $11 million more in cap space this year than they did last year — an estimate that both salary-tracking websites OverTheCap and Spotrac agree on.
But with at least five starters projected to hit free agency in 2019, the Vikings will also need to balance the concerns of their core roster along with the costs and benefits of their various options at quarterback.
Christopher Gates at the Daily Norseman went over the estimates that Spotrac put together for the Vikings quarterbacks, but there are another group of estimates from OverTheCap (written before the playoffs). It may be useful to look at both of them.
Keenum, everyone agrees, will cost the most out of the Vikings quarterbacks, but the two websites disagree on how much that exactly is. Spotrac uses a formula based on percentage of games played, passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, completion rate, passer rating and ESPN’s QBR. They also do a separate adjustment for age.
The model spit out a comparison between Keenum, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Alex Smith and Derek Carr, and because his numbers come out favorably in that comparison, his contract number does as well — earning $21.1 million a year on a four-year contract.
OverTheCap, however, came to a conclusion about $5 million cheaper, explaining:
Though there is a big dropoff between the first tier of free agents and Keenum, Keenum should find some interest as a decent game manager if they need a QB and are not in a position to draft one.
Though Keenum should be impacted negatively by the failures of Brock Osweiler and Mike Glennon, their success at getting a contract should give Keenum a similar path to earning a reasonable contract. Teams will be more risk averse with Keenum since there is nothing before this season to really indicate that he would be a quality starter so I would not expect a big guarantee, but do think he can get a three year contract from a team.
I think for a team to be interested in Keenum they will need to have some skill position players in place and a solid defense. He is not someone you build a team around so I wouldn’t expect the bad roster teams to chase him. This is the price range where the Broncos could begin to look. If the Cardinals are still bullish on their roster this would be a reasonable stopgap solution with a little upside. Im not sure if you discount the Redskins on him either. The Vikings should be the favorites to retain him.
I’d think a 3 year contract in the $15 million per year range with $17 million or so guaranteed is likely unless teams are still scared in which case I’d look at 2 years $12-13M per year. Any type of good playoff run should increase any price.
That fits our estimate from November that he could be getting $18 million at his level of play, though there was a chance that if a few more quarterbacks hit the market, like Taylor, Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo, Keenum’s contract value could fall well below that — we estimated at $12 million, the same that OverTheCap put for their low-end estimate.
That’s a pretty wide range, and for some, will be the difference between keeping him or letting him go. It should be noted that OverTheCap put their numbers together before Garoppolo signed and were off on his contract projection by about 16.7 percent, or $5 million a year.
the Vikings will also need to balance the concerns of their core roster along with the costs and benefits of their various options at quarterback.
As for Bridgewater, everyone admits they don’t have much of a clue. Nevertheless, both websites have a projection for him as well. Once again, Spotrac estimates a more expensive contract, coming in around $11 million, after comparisons to Sam Bradford, Nick Foles, Chad Henne and Robert Griffin III.
Given the fact that no comparison really seems apt (especially because the figures they used for games played just looked at his 2014-2015 seasons and not the 34 games he’s missed since then), the model may not be helpful at all.
OverTheCap acknowleged that uncertainty when projecting a smaller contract for Bridgewater, though it may be higher than what many might expect:
If it was known that Bridgewater was fully healthy there is no doubt in my mind he would get a contract at the least equal to Mike Glennon’s $15 million a year contract, but with such a small sample size post injury I don’t believe a team can make that kind of commitment. Most likely he is going to be looked at similar to Robert Griffin III but with less upside. Bridgewater thus far in his career has been little more than a safe game manager, but has Alex Smith upside and in today’s dollars Smith is worth over $22 million a season.
He is best served to take a one year contract with a chance to start even if that means leaving a few dollars on the table. We will see how the Vikings year ends but that could be a place where he had a chance to play if they don’t make the Super Bowl with Keenum this year. The Jets with decent wide receivers would make some sense as would the Bills if they part ways with Tyrod Taylor. Arizona is a great environment and if Larry Fitzgerald returns and they keep one of the Browns it could be a good spot. Denver would be the best spot of all with a terrific defense and good receivers.
I have a hard time projecting a contract here but I think somewhere around $6 or $7 million is fair. The deal would include significant performance incentives as well. Im not sure given the nature of his injury if some teams might look for an injury waiver to apply in the preseason but he should be able to find a home where they take that risk at this price.
As for Bradford, his history of injury problems will also force teams to balk. His projection is difficult enough that Spotrac didn’t even attempt to model his cap hit. OverTheCap isn’t optimistic.
No player lost more this year than Bradford who led the Vikings to a great opening week win and then fell to another knee injury that seemed to come out of nowhere. The Vikings tried to bring him back after a few weeks and it was a disaster as he clearly was not capable of playing on his leg. He could be back for the playoffs in relief if Keenum had a bad game, but that may not be advisable to either side.
Bradford’s entire career has been marred by injuries and I don’t think Keenum leading the Vikings to the playoffs a year after Bradford’s team went 8-8 is a big benefit either. Though Bradford still has that draft pedigree and has never had a season so bad that it makes people forget where he was drafted, he is so far removed from being considered a “prospect” that teams shouldn’t be blinded by that anymore.
Bradford is a risky play but because he is likely going to be cheap relative to his potential upside he is worth the risk. Suitors should include the Broncos, Cardinals, Vikings if they fail to retain Keenum, and Redskins if they decide Cousins is too expensive. I guess with all the cap room they have the Browns could go to him to start over a rookie for a portion of the season before replacing him if things go south.
I don’t see Bradford signing for anything more than a 2 year contract worth somewhere around $16 million in base salary with another $10-$12 million available based on tiers of incentives. Cal it $7 million guaranteed and close to $1 million in per game bonuses this year.
As for the top two quarterbacks to hit the market — Kirk Cousins and Drew Brees — OverTheCap estimates a $29 million average for Cousins and $25 million for Brees. Spotrac agrees on Brees, but thinks Cousins only gets a marginal amount more than the Saints quarterback, $25.6 million a year.
All of this information may not quite be helpful. There’s a good chance that the Vikings place the transition tag on Keenum, which would cap his value at about $18 million while keeping him on a one-year deal.
The only issue is that the Vikings, in order to keep Keenum, would be required to match any offer another team puts forth on Keenum. They would get no compensation if they declined to match it and he signed with the other team.
Not only that, it’s a wide range of estimates to choose from; Keenum could get $12 million to over 80 percent more than that… or anywhere in between. Bridgewater could get $5 million or twice that. Bradford could get nothing, or $16 million.
Still, if one looks to the middle ranges of the estimates — something like $17 million for Keenum, $7 million for Bridgewater and $8 million for Bradford — it might be easier to get a context for what the Vikings are dealing with.
