Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks ML @ Philadelphia Phillies (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:05 PM CT on MLB Network
The Diamondbacks are going for a road sweep tonight, which is surprising just on its own. But they’re well-positioned to pull it off behind their ace Zac Gallen. The star lefty needs a bounce back game here, and it will be tough against a Phillies team that’s very good against right-handed pitching. But that’s generally because of all the left-handed hitters in their lineup, and Gallen happens to be shutting down lefty bats with ease this year.
Arizona is also pretty strong against left-handed pitching which they’ll see from Phillies starter Ranger Suarez today. They’re great at putting the ball in play against lefties, which will help with the Philly defense letting Suarez down consistently this season. But we should also start to accept that Arizona is no fluke, as not just any team would be just 1.5 games behind the Dodgers in this division. The Phillies are the name brand team with all the stars, but I’m backing the squad playing the far better baseball here.
MLB (0.25 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
This has been a slugfest of a series so far with 11 and 13 runs the past two nights, and I’m not seeing any reason it can’t continue tonight. The main reason is consistency from the St Louis offense, which has had some ridiculous outbursts lately and is scoring 6.4 runs per game this month. Against righty Ben Lively, who’s back in the big leagues this year for the first time since 2019, I think the Cards stay hot at the plate.
But their own troubled starter Steven Matz takes the mound today. Even though he has calmed down recently, it’s been against teams that struggle against left-handed pitching. The Reds are in their preferred split here, with far better batting average, slugging, and OPS numbers against lefties. With great hitting weather at the small Cincy ballpark, expect these teams to keep the offenses rolling.
Degenerates
NHL Carolina Hurricanes/Florida Panthers Under 5.5 (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on TNT
I might not know much about hockey, but I can spot a trend as obvious as this one. These teams have only put up 9 goals through 3 games in this series, and have gone under this total in 5 of the 6 meetings all season. My hockey sources tell me the main reason is red-hot goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky holding down the Carolina offense. Meanwhile, the size of the Hurricane defenders is shutting down the shooting lanes for a Florida team that takes tons of shots. With this being an elimination game, I’d expect defense to be the focus for both teams once again to keep this game under.
Tiny Nick is 1299-1139 ATS (+74.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
