Welcome back for another edition of Sam and Sam’s Best Bets for the sports betting weekend. Last week we went 1-2 with one future that’s yet to be determined; we’re hoping for better luck with some big playoff games coming up in the next couple days.
NHL, Game 5, Capitals (-1.5) over Flyers (+130)
The President’s Trophy winners are set to clinch at home Friday night against the Philadelphia Flyers. Philly got a nice win in Game 4 to honor the late owner Ed Snider, but unfortunately for the Flyers it’s probably going to be lights out in Game 5. They’ve only scored four goals in four games against the Caps’ Braden Holtby, while Washington has covered the -1.5 spread in each of their wins in the series.
The 1 vs 8 matchup has seemed more mismatched at times than Minnesota vs Dallas, and the Flyers will likely succumb to a superior Capitals team on Friday night.
NBA, Game 4, Raptors (-1.5) over Pacers (-110)
The plucky Pacers stole a win in Game 1 but have rolled over in Games 2 and 3 of the series to give control back to Toronto. The latter two performances likely represent the norm, while Game 1 was more the enigma. Toronto had an uncommonly bad showing from the free throw line in Game 1 (68%) that was corrected in Game 2 (92%) and Game 3 (81%).
The Raps are stronger down low and seem to improved their offensive sets after a lifeless first game. This is not your 2014 Indiana Pacers who had Roy Hibbert and Lance Stephenson as stoppers and allowed 92 ppg. These Pacers cede over 100 per game and should be overmatched by the surging Raptors.
MLB, Twins-Nationals Under 8 (-110)
Here’s a solid bet you can make on your Minnesota Twins Friday night. Kyle Gibson faces Gio Gonzalez at Nationals Park. Bovada has the over/under pegged at 8, but our baseball model projects a total of 7 runs scored. That’s enough of a discrepancy to pull the trigger ASAP, even before seeing the umpires. Hopefully they don’t draw a notorious over ump like Gary Cederstrom or Gabe Morales.
Horse Racing Future, Mohaymen to Win Kentucky Derby (+800)
Yes, Mohaymen got smoked in the Florida Derby, and it wasn’t particularly close. Nyquist, the slight underdog, blew away the field, remained unbeaten and became the consensus Derby favorite, while Mohaymen lost his unblemished record and has now faded to 8/1.
It’s important to note, though, how out of sorts Mohaymen was at Gulfstream Park. He lost to Fellowship, a horse he’d beaten by six lengths twice before. That seems like an anomaly. Having won six races in a row prior to the Florida Derby slip-up, Mohaymen still has enough equity to merit a win bet. The price is right at the moment – get it before it goes down.
If horses are able to comprehend the concept of revenge, this is a grudge match if I’ve ever seen one. Mohaymen got embarrassed by Nyquist in Florida, but I don’t think he’ll let it happen again on May 7.