Hey there, it’s Sam Ekstrom, co-host of Cold Omaha’s Don’t Dread the Spread podcast. If you’re unfamiliar with the podcast (shame on you), my co-host Sam Verhulst and I have taken it upon ourselves to educate and prognosticate within the world of sports betting. We’re turning your nickels into dimes!
We’ve got tips on betting strategies, value picks and teams to support/fade. From horse racing to golf to baseball, we’ve got all your bases covered. Make sure you’re following @SamsSportsPicks on Twitter for daily updates, but now we’ll make things even easier on you with this new weekly piece at ColdOmaha.com.
Every Friday we’ll be publishing some plays we recommend for the weekend of sports ahead, along with our rationale.
Below is our first edition. And if you want to join in on the fun (responsibly, of course), check out coldomaha.com/bovada and get a 50% bonus on your first deposit.
Friday, Orioles @ Rangers, Under 9 OR Under Thru First 5 Innings
If you missed the latest Don’t Dread the Spread, we introduced our new baseball betting model that calculates the pitchers’ FIPs (aka fancy ERAs), teams’ offensive runs per game and ballpark factors, then spits out a likely run total. This game has an over/under set at 9, but the model suggests a run total of 8. That’s a fairly large discrepancy. To seal the deal, Jordan Baker is Friday’s home plate umpire, and he’s called a majority of UNDER games over the past three seasons.
It’s still early in the baseball season, but our picks using the model currently sit at 7-1-1. Give this one a try … even if you’re still bitter towards Orioles starter, and former Twin, Vance Worley.
Saturday, Wild @ Stars, Under on Goals Scored (Probably 5)
Sam and I talked about taking the under on goals in Game 1 and ended up kicking ourselves for not pulling the trigger. The Wild are anemic right now in terms of goal scoring and no longer have Zach Parise or Thomas Vanek. Their defense, however, is still intact, as is Devan Dubnyk. The Wild have no choice but to play a tight defensive structure and keep things as low scoring as possible.
Dallas ended up scoring four goals in Game 1, but two of those came on a very late power play goal followed by an empty netter. For 55 minutes the Wild executed their plan pretty well. But even if Minnesota suffers a handful of defensive lapses, their offense is so punchless right now, it wouldn’t be shocking to see another 3-0 or 4-0 final in Game 2 that will still get you paid.
Series Wager, Twins vs Angels, Angels -140
Baseball betting strategists usually recommend riding long winning streaks or losing streaks, so we’re just going to keep fading the Twins. Minnesota has lost nine straight and didn’t record a run-scoring hit in their entire series against the Chicago White Sox. Now they face a 5-4 Anaheim team that pitches Garrett Richards and Jered Weaver in the first two games of the series against Tommy Milone and Ricky Nolasco. That’s a definite edge to Los Angeles.
The Angels have also owned the Twins recently, going 12-2 against them over the last two seasons and 7-1 at Target Field. Asking them to win two out of three against a reeling Minnesota team doesn’t seem like a large request.
NBA Futures, Oklahoma City To Win NBA Finals (+1000)
Don’t break the bank betting on this one, because we all know who stands in their way. You might ask, ‘Why wouldn’t I bet on Golden State then?’ And the answer would be, ‘You’ve lost all value.’ Golden State is a historically good team that’s going to be vastly overbet by the public. They are currently -150 to win the title and -200 to win the Western Conference.
If you want real value, the Thunder are the way to go. Everyone knows we’re in for a doozy of a series between OKC and the San Antonio Spurs in Round 2 and that the winner will get a shot to knock off the Warriors in the Western Finals. Oklahoma City, however, is +800 to win the conference, while San Antonio is +250. The books are giving the Spurs a huge edge, meaning they assume San Antonio will handle OKC, but it could be a much closer series than Vegas believes. Oklahoma City beat the Spurs twice in four tries this season and took them to overtime in another game. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are terrific, obviously, and Kawhi Leonard can only guard one man.
A Spurs-Thunder series could go either way, so if you want to pick a team to knock off Golden State, why not get FAR better odds by taking the Thunder?
That’s a wrap for today. Follow @SamsSportsPicks for more picks and opinions from your two resident bettors.
