From the Don’t Dread the Spread podcast, Sam Verhulst provides sports betting tips and insights throughout the football season. Follow on Twitter @SamsSportsPicks.
One of the keys to successful sports wagering is tracking your bets. How’d you do? Where did you go wrong? With that in mind, each week we will take a look back at our weekend wagers and see how we did.
I didn’t have a published article last week, so I’ll be going off of my picks tweeted out prior to the games. In future weeks, I’ll be using the picks from my weekly column.
1. Kansas State +14.5 at Stanford
Wager: Risk $52.5 to win $50
Result: Win
Analysis: Kansas State overcame lackluster quarterback play with superior athleticism to begin the season with an easy cover. Stanford’s defensive front was stouter than I expected, but their secondary looked vulnerable and their offense was very one-dimensional. If USC is getting more than a touchdown for their trip to Stanford in Week 3, I will be looking at the Trojans harder than nerds on prom night.
2. LSU/Wisconsin under 44.5
Wager: Risk $52.5 to win $50
Result: Win
Analysis: Wisconsin’s offense was terrible as expected. The Badgers held Fournette in check for most of the game as expected. This was an easy win. The problem came with Brandon Harris being worse than expected, but we’ll cover this later.
3. UCLA/Texas A&M under 54
Wager: Risk $52.5 to win $50
Result: Loss
Analysis: Our first bad beat of the year. This is a game where you had to pull out the bleach and get over it fast. The game was slow-paced and low scoring for the first three and a half quarters. The Aggies were in control and up 24-9. Then UCLA had back-to-back scores late in the game along with a two-point conversion to force overtime. At that point it would have been hard for the game to stay under 54 and the total ended just over at 55. The lesson may be to focus on those first-half unders.
4. UNC +3 against Georgia
Wager: Risk $52.5 to win $50
Result: Loss
Analysis: The Tar Heels led 24-14 in the third quarter and trailed by only two with 3 minutes left. It looked like Georgia would run out the clock to give us the cover when Nick Chubb broke off a big run to take us outside the number. It was a tough loss, but I liked what I saw from the Heels, and I’ll be watching them in the coming weeks.
5. Teaser of LSU -3 against Wisconsin and Florida St. +3 against Mississippi
Wager: Risk $79 to win $50
Result: Loss
Analysis: I knew the Badgers would be able to limit the Tigers on the ground. My mistake was thinking Brandon Harris would show any improvement. He looked worse than ever and the final interception was a fitting end. This is a loss I deserve for declaring it my “lock of the week.”
6. Texas +3.5 vs Notre Dame and Texas ML vs Notre Dame
Wagers: Risk $52.5 to win $50 and Risk $50 to win $80
Result: Win and Win
Analysis: Texas redeemed the weekend by pulling off the outright upset against the Fighting Irish. I expressed skepticism on Twitter about Notre Dame’s ability to stop the run. The skepticism proved warranted as the Longhorns ran all over the Irish. Freshman quarterback Shane Buechele looked confident leading the Texas attack. It was nice to get this victory, but all value on the Longhorns is probably gone now as most of America saw this game.
Overall Week 1 Tally
Risk: $391.5
Return: $437.5
Profit: $46
Season Total
Risk: $391.5
Return: $437.5
Profit: $46
