The Minnesota Vikings, despite winning last week, have a tougher road to the playoffs today than they did at the same time last Sunday. Numberfire and FiveThirtyEight see the Vikings as having a 19 percent chance of making the playoffs, while FootballOutsiders dropped Minnesota’s chances to 14 percent.
Previously, those sites gave the Vikings between a 21 and 28 percent chance of making the big dance.
The Vikings essentially have two paths: winning out or going 2-1.
In any situation where the Vikings win out and Detroit loses out, the Vikings clinch the NFC North and a #4 seed in the playoffs.
In that scenario, it’s possible to grab the #2 or #3 seed—though extremely unlikely. Other division leaders, like Seattle and Atlanta would need to lose multiple games—Seattle specifically would have to lose against both Arizona and San Francisco while Atlanta would need to lose two of their games against San Francisco, Carolina and New Orleans.
Not only that, Tampa Bay—who have a better record than the Vikings and a conference wins tiebreaker—must also lose two games (Dallas, New Orleans, Carolina). Even though they are not currently division leaders, Atlanta losses help them more than they help the Vikings when it comes to the #2 seed.
For the #3 seed, only one set of two outcomes has to occur (assuming Detroit loses all of its games while the Vikings win out). Either Seattle loses both of their upcoming games, or Atlanta and Tampa Bay lose two of their three upcoming games. In bullet format:
- Win out
- Detroit loses out
AND
- Seattle loses both of their upcoming games
OR
- Either:
- Atlanta loses two of their upcoming games OR
- Tampa Bay loses two of their upcoming games
Those are all unlikely, so fans may want to focus on the Wild Card #5 or #6 seeds. For that to happen if the Vikings win out.
If the Vikings win out, they’ll want two of the following three things to happen in order to make the playoffs, and all three if they want the #5 seed:
- New York Giants lose two (Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington)
- Washington loses one (Carolina, Chicago, New York Giants)
- Tampa Bay (Dallas, New Orleans, Carolina) OR Atlanta loses two (San Francisco, Carolina, New Orleans)
If the Vikings go 9-7 (win two out of the next three), their only path to the playoffs requires that they beat Green Bay or that Green Bay loses their other two games.
For the #5 seed in a 9-7 scenario, the Vikings need all four of the following to happen, while a #6 seed only requires three of the four:
- Green Bay loses to Minnesota OR their other two opponents (Chicago, Detroit)
- New York Giants lose all three (Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington)
- Washington loses two (Carolina, Chicago, New York Giants)
- Tampa Bay OR Atlanta loses all three of their games.
Because the New York Giants and Washington play each other, the #5 seed scenario can only occur if the Giants specifically lose to both Chicago and Carolina.
For the rooting guide, we’ll assume that the Vikings win out and the most likely scenarios given that should encompass who to root for:
| Winner | Loser | Comments | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina | over | Washington | Cheer for the Carolina Panthers in every game. This is a good place to start. |
| San Francisco | over | Atlanta | This seems pretty unlikely, especially after Atlanta’s shellacking of the Los Angeles Rams, who are comparably as good as the 49ers, but it’s possible—and given how on-edge Atlanta fans seem to be about their playoff position, not out of the realm of possibility. |
| Dallas | over | Tampa Bay | This might be the best time for Tampa Bay’s steam to stop. They match up against each other well, though, and Dallas may not have an answer on defense for Tampa Bay’s offense. |
| Detroit | over | New York Giants | if the Vikings win out, the Lions winning helps Minnesota in the wild card race, while the Lions losing helps Minnesota out in the divisional race. I don’t foresee the Lions losing out, so I’ll cheer for them here. Your mileage may vary. |
| Chicago | over | Green Bay | if the Vikings win out, this doesn’t matter. But I’m doing it just because. |
Vikings fans are temporary Carolina Panthers fans.
Go Carolina, San Francisco and Dallas! If Detroit wins, that’s alright! If the Giants win, that’s OK as well but not as good. Stomach cheering for Chicago, knowing that a Green Bay loss marginally helps the Vikings—especially if the Vikings go 9-7.
