Twins

7/15: Carrasco vs. Santana Gets Second Half Underway as Twins Open Three-Game Set Against Indians

With a strong start, Santana can get his ERA back under 4.00 for the season. He has a 1.63 ERA over his last four starts.

Greetings from sunny and warm Target Field as the Minnesota Twins get the second half underway with a three-game weekend set against the Cleveland Indians. For the second time in just a few weeks, the entire team was out on the field for the entire media availability session prior to the game, as the team worked on PFPs (pitcher fielding practice) and a number of other defensive fundamentals that teams don’t get to practice much outside of spring training. Manager Paul Molitor said he just wanted to get the juices going with the guys again after a few days off, and hence the team workout.

The Twins come in with just a 32-56 record overall, but have played markedly better in recent weeks. In fact, the Twins are 14-16 over their last 30 games, 12-8 over the last 20 and 7-3 in their last 10.

So maybe the break came at a bad time?

Molitor doesn’t really think so, and doesn’t put a ton of stock into momentum. More on that in a bit. He’ll send right-handed starter Ervin Santana to the mound for his 17th start of the season. There remains the distinct possibility it could be one of Santana’s final starts in a Twins uniform with the trade deadline looming, but ultimately all it really means is that he’s first out of the chute in the second half as the four-day break allows teams to shuffle their rotations however they see fit. Even if the Twins trade Santana before the Aug. 1 deadline, he could make as many as four more starts with the team (including Friday’s start).

In fact, as things are lined up now, Santana would make that fourth start on July 31.

One team that isn’t an ideal matchup for anyone in that respect is the Indians, who’ll send Carlos Carrasco to the mound Saturday night and follow that up with Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin. If manager Terry Francona had so desired, he could have lined up Carrasco, Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar to start the first three games out of the break, but what’s likely at play here is that the Indians head to Kansas City next. The reality of the situation is that the Indians probably are more worried about the third-place Royals (tied with Chicago) than they are the last-place Twins, and have staggered their rotation as such.

Kluber, Salazar and Carrasco are currently slated to face the Royals, so the theory seems to hold water.

The Twins didn’t have an update on injured third baseman Trevor Plouffe (rib), but he was with the team according to Molitor and even emerged to help pick up baseballs in the cage during on-field batting practice with his teammates. However, unlike his teammates who were in their usual baseball pants, Plouffe was donning shorts and didn’t appear to be partaking in any sort of baseball activities. We should know more after talking to Terry Ryan before the game.

Plouffe is unlikely to be back before the last week in July at the earliest.

One player whose injury status we can update is Byron Buxton, who is back in the lineup and batting ninth after sitting out nearly the entire Rangers series. Buxton played a total of a half inning on defense as he ran into the wall on a Rougned Odor triple in the first inning of Friday’s game, and missed the next two games with what the team termed as a knee contusion (basically a bruise). Molitor said he could have used him in either of the final two games of the series if he absolutely needed to, but ultimately felt six days off — the last two of the series plus the four-game All Star break — was a better deal for Buxton.

Saturday and Sunday will be the Twins Hall of Fame inductions for Torii Hunter and former team radio broadcaster John Gordon, respectively. Both spoke at length with the media prior to Friday’s game, and we’ll have those quotes up on ColdOmaha.com as soon as possible. Hunter copped to the potential of being emotional during his Saturday induction, while Gordon all but guaranteed he’d be overcome with emotion. He was even tearing up a bit addressing the media, and said he needed more than a minute to compose himself when he made his first call after finding out about his induction.

That call was to former Twins manager Tom Kelly, who was Gordon’s second choice to introduce him to the crowd on Sunday. Instead, former Twins farm director Jim Rantz will do the honors. Rod Carew will also introduce both Hunter and Gordon, with Eddie Guardado having the honors for Hunter as well.

Here’s how the Twins line up against Carrasco and the Indians:

image1 (15)

The All Star break wasn’t Carrasco’s first time off this season, as he missed the entire month of May with a hamstring injury suffered while covering first base. And while it looked eerily reminiscent of the knee injury that cut Garrett Richards’ season short a few years back, it was fortunately much less serious.

Carrasco needed a start or two to work off some of the rust, but overall he’s been fantastic since returning from the DL. In the eight starts since, he’s got a 2.47 ERA (same as his season line) with more than a strikeout per inning and a healthy 52-15 K/BB ratio. Carrasco is the classic modern pitcher, with nearly a strikeout per inning, very few walks and a well above-average groundball rate. Not only does he throw hard (93-94 mph on his fastballs), but he’ll mix in a curve, slider and a change. All three of his non-fastball offerings are big time swing-and-miss pitches, with whiff rates in excess of 14 percent on each. This will be the toughest matchup of the weekend for the Twins, most likely, and that includes a cruising Trevor Bauer on Saturday.

For Santana, he’ll look to continue the roll he’s been on. The season numbers still aren’t all that great, but he’s a couple clean outs away from getting his season ERA under 4.00. He’s dropped that from over 5.00 in the last four starts, as he has just a 1.63 ERA in that span (five earned runs in 27.2 innings) with a 19-5 K/BB ratio and .448 OPS against.

Of all pitches, Santana’s four-seamer gave the A’s the most fits last time out in the two-hitter. But after largely scrapping his ineffective changeup through June, he found some wiggle to that as well over the last two starts with a slider that has been consistently his best pitch all season. When the slider and change are working like they were in Oakland, he’s the total package on the mound.

Notes & Quotes

  • The families of Kurt Suzuki and Tommy Milone welcomed new children over the All Star Break, as Tommy’s wife Tina gave birth to a daughter (Mia) and Kurt’s wife Renee had a boy (Elijah). Mia is the Milone’s first child, and was born Thursday, while Elijah is Suzuki’s third child and was born Tuesday.
  • Former Twins reliever Kevin Jepsen has landed in a familiar place after the club released him over the break, as he signed a one-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays were the team who initially traded him to the Twins less than a year ago, and they’ll now owe him a prorated league-minimum salary while the Twins are on the hook for the rest of his roughly $5.3 million deal for this season.
  • Kennys Vargas was named AL Player of the Week for his work before the All Star break, where he hit .471/.609/1.294 in six games with eight hits — five doubles and three home runs.
  • In case you missed it, MLB announced that the batting championships for each league will be furthermore known as the Rod Carew (AL) and Tony Gwynn (NL) awards.
  • The Twins are 4-2 against Cleveland this year — their only winning record against an AL Central club. In fact, the Twins are 2-19 against the rest of the division.
  • The Twins have scored 140 runs since June 18 — the most in baseball.
  • With a win on Friday, the Twins will match their win total in July (eight) from May (8-19). They’ve already matched April’s win total (seven).
  • Old friend Justin Morneau was activated off the disabled list for the Chicago White Sox, but is not in the starting lineup as the team opens the second half on the road against the Angels. Morneau has recovered from offseason surgery on his elbow, and went through an eight-game rehab stint between Double- and Triple-A where he hit just .174/.321/.261. He’s expected to get plenty of playing time at DH down the stretch.  
  • Molitor on the break: “It’s kind of nice to step away. We’re in a profession that is a great privilege to be in, but it’s a day-to-day grind. So you get a chance to step away for a few days, and kind of recharge. It’s good to be back.”
  • Molitor on carryover or momentum: “(The team’s play of late) was a lot better than some of the other periods we had to endure the first three months or so. We were just more competitive day to day, I think. We talk a lot about our starting rotation giving us more of a chance consistently. I think the team feeds off that, knowing you’re going to be in the game and if you put together a couple innings offensively and make plays, you’ve got a chance to be there at the end and win a ballgame.”
  • Molitor on his message to the players on the field: “It was very brief, but it’s just that there’s always something to play for. You can’t get too engulfed by where we’re at, because that’s the reality for all of us. But anytime you put on a uniform, it’s something that you should respect. Go out there and give what you have each and every day. I’m hoping we do some things in the second half that we did in the last few weeks. A lot of guys are going to get opportunities to play and pitch. We’ll continue to keep try building.”
  • Molitor on if he ever truly disengages during the break from the game: “It’s tough. The thing is by the time you’re ready to let go, it’s time to come back. I think it takes a couple days to let your mind just go to things that are different. But that’s the challenge that you have. I was able to break away and not look at matchups/defensive charts/pitching matchups for a few days, which was good. Last night I started to crank it back up a little bit. We’re fortunate that we’re opening up at home, and it gave us an extra full day yesterday. I encouraged the guys to take full advantage of the break, and I think they’re going to come back ready to play.”
  • Molitor said he doesn’t think of Max Kepler as “entrenched” in the No. 5 spot in the lineup. “I like giving him a chance to do that. We’re not sure what’s going to happen when (Plouffe) comes back, and different things that might affect how that goes. Some other guys are going pretty good too (Grossman, Rosario, Vargas). I have some options, especially against lefties to do some different things.”

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