Twins

9/7: Duffy vs. Gibson, Suzuki and Plouffe Updates and More Dozier Exploits

The Twins look to Gibson not only to snap their long skid, but a personal tough stretch of his own on Wednesday night.

It’s overcast, humid and in the mid 70s as the Twins prepare to wrap up the three-game series against the Kansas City Royals before a much-needed off-day on Thursday. The Twins will turn to righty Kyle Gibson (5.31 ERA in 20 starts/117 IP, 4.79 FIP, 1.57 WHIP) to try avoid a sweep at the hands of the Royals, who had the ball to probably their best starter, lefty Danny Duffy (3.13 ERA in 37 appearances/21 starts/149.1 IP, 3.49 FIP, 9.5 K/9).

More on that matchup in a bit.

It looks like there’s a fair chance for rain to roll in later tonight, but the chances don’t get really high (like 90 percent) until around 11:00 p.m., so they should easily be able to get this one in.

Injury Updates

Manager Paul Molitor said that catcher Kurt Suzuki was no worse for the wear after taking a foul tip to the mask late Tuesday night that re-opened where he’d previously had stitches on his chin, and that his rotation behind the plate wouldn’t change as a result of it, even though Suzuki was bloodied a bit by it.  

The news was less positive on Trevor Plouffe, who told reporters the MRI went great — he just had to lay there and hold his breath, he joked — but it did reveal strains to his left intercostal and oblique muscles. Both Plouffe and Molitor seemed skeptical that he’d be able to return this season, though Plouffe made it sound like if there was a chance he could come back even for a handful of games, he’d really like to do that. However, it’s still too soon to tell exactly what’ll happen, but Plouffe will have to shut it down for a bit.

Here’s how the Twins line up today:

https://twitter.com/Brandon_Warne/status/773615684794322946

With the losing skid mounting — now 17 of the last 19 games — the Twins turn to Gibson to stop the bleeding. Gibson’s been on a tough streak of his own dating back to his complete game against the Braves, as the three starts since have not been pretty: 7.88 ERA, .988 OPS against and 11-8 K/BB ratio in 16 innings.

Gibson has struggled to get first-pitch strikes on batters at times this year, and that was never more evident than last time out, when the White Sox peppered him for five earned runs on nine hits in just 5.2 innings. Gibson faced 27 batters and threw first-pitch strikes to just 12, which buried what had the potential to be an otherwise successful game, as he got 12 swinging strikes, which is a respectable number on 101 pitches thrown. With Gibson’s repertoire, the swinging strikes will come and go, but he can’t afford to work from behind. The start against the White Sox also marked Gibson’s lowest mark this season as far as zone percentage is concerned. Basically speaking, just 24.8 percent of Gibson’s pitches were in the strike zone against the White Sox, via the Fangraphs PITCHf/x algorithm. It’s hard to get an exact grasp on how that compares to some other pitchers — because good pitchers will also get chases on pitches out of the zone — but here’s an attempt at context: Gibson’s season mark in zone percentage is 40.9 percent, and his career mark is 41.4 percent.  

The AL average for zone percent right now is 44.7 percent.  

Opposing Gibson for the Royals is the lefty Duffy, who ironically is the AL leader in zone percent at 50.7 percent. Duffy has been on quite a run since returning to the rotation back in May, to the point where he’s even popped up in some circles as a dark-horse Cy Young candidate. Just to put the zone percentage discussion to bed a bit, the leaderboard looks like this among qualified starters:

  • Duffy
  • Bartolo Colon
  • Stephen Strasburg
  • Jimmy Nelson
  • Jered Weaver

That’s about a who’s who of….nothing, really. Duffy is an up-and-coming lefty who throws hard and has good stuff. Strasburg might be the most physically-gifted non-Kershaw starter in the game. Colon throws strike after strike, like an aging and overweight Phil Hughes, for some context. Jered Weaver literally throws a Reagan-era fastball, Nelson has gotten absolutely peppered at times with the Brewers to the tune of a .787 OPS against this year. Also, somewhat hilariously, is that Nelson is among the top two in the NL, yet leads that league in walks allowed. So basically, it’s hard to know exactly how to frame the argument, but that some guys are successful working in the zone, and some guys are successful outside of the zone. It would seem like Gibson is sort of on the fringes of both, frankly.

Duffy, on the other hand, has the stuff to be successful probably either way. He’ll throw both a two- and four-seam fastball — preferring the latter — with both averaging in the 94-95 mph range, which is big-time heat for any starter, let alone a lefty. He’ll ix in a curve and a change as well, so it’s basically a three/four-pitch mix, depending on how you want to look at it.

His run of success has been phenomenal, as he’s got a 9.5 K/9 mark and just 1.9 BB/9. He’s got double-digit swinging-strike rates on the four-seamer, curve and changeup — the change is tops at 19.6 percent — and the two-seamer is no slouch either at 8.7 percent.

Add it all up, and there’s little reason why his 21 starts have led to numbers like this: .674 OPS against, 3.15 ERA and 136-27 K/BB ratio in 131.1 innings. If there’s any spot where he can be bit a little, it’s home runs, as he’s allowed 18 so far in his 21 starts.

Notes & Quotes

  • Not team has more home runs than the Twins in September (17).
  • Brian Dozier has more home run in September (seven) than 16 MLB teams.
  • The Twins rank second in baseball in runs scored this month, and second in slugging percentage.
  • Surprisingly perhaps, the Twins are not the worst pitching-wise, as the Diamondbacks have a collective 7.71 ERA this month. The Twins as a staff are second-worst at 7.58.
  • Twins broadcaster Dick Bremer told reporters he spotted Tyler Rogers — brother of Taylor — at Target Field on Tuesday. Rogers is a right-handed pitcher in the Giants organization, who reached Triple-A for the first time in his career in July.
  • Former Twins pitcher Alex Meyer made his first start with the Angels, and it went about like one might expect. He threw 68 pitches in 3.1 innings (37 strikes), with just one hit and one earned run allowed, but a 5-4 K/BB ratio. He’ll get every chance to make an impression this month, but this start looked an awful lot like the start of the Houston one that was the beginning of the end of his Twins tenure.
  • Plouffe on the injury: “I did 15 days earlier in the year with it, and I came back and it wasn’t good. I should have taken longer at that time. Now at the end of the season, I want to rehab it and try to get back as quick as possible. We haven’t really decided on shutting it down or trying to come back for the last five games or so. I think it’s too early to be definitive one day or another, but it’s going to at least a couple weeks that we have to rehab it, and then it’s whether I want to rush it and get back. If it’s feeling better, then we’ll be like ‘Hell yeah, let’s do it and play five more games or a week or whatever it is.’”
  • Plouffe on if the injuries to the intercostal and oblique are related: “To be honest with you I don’t really know what caused all this. I had the intercostal in like 2013 in Detroit, and that was on the same spot, so I could have re-aggravated that. But it didn’t feel as sharp as earlier in the year when I pulled the other oblique.”
  • Plouffe on the frustration of getting hurt when his swing was coming around: “It’s pretty frustrating, man. I felt like….obviously we aren’t where we want to be as a team. With my situation, I’m trying to end the season on a high note or try do as best I can. I thought I was doing better at the plate over the last month or so. I wanted to finish the season out and finish strong, so when something like this happens it’s definitely disappointing. But it’s one of those things you’ve got to deal with.”
  • Molitor on Plouffe: “There’s some severity there when a player has to walk off the field like that after one swing. I know it was kind of irritated earlier in the game. MRIs, when you’re dealing with strains in the muscular areas, they basically show inflammation. You try to gauge based on what you see how severe it is. The fact that there’s a couple areas there that are injured to some degree….I like to hold onto some optimism for him, but a lot of time those sorts of injuries can linger anywhere from 4-to-6 weeks. We’ll see how he does over the next 5-to-10 days. He won’t be traveling with us, and we’ll see if there’s any chance he can join us again before the last day.”
  • Molitor on his plans at third base with Plouffe out: “He’s been bouncing around a bit at third and first. We’ve played Escobar and Sano over there, and we’ve got some options. Jimmy Beresford can play over there. Kind of like we’ve been doing here for a while, it’s a little bit of a shuffle the deck on a given day and look for matchups/defense/opportunities for guys who haven’t played in a while. We’re still playing a lot of teams that are still in the mix, so I’m going to be mindful of that as well. But we have people to play there, that’s for sure.”
  • Molitor added that he’s wanting to see Sano at third base down the stretch, but that he doesn’t feel like what Miguel puts on tape this month changes how good he can or will be at third base in the long-term. Molitor also praised Sano’s work ethic on the practice field, while simultaneously saying that even with all the work, the game can speed up on a young player who is still trying to find their way on the field.
  • Sano has taken some grounders at shortstop in recent practice sessions, and Molitor said he’s fine with that as long as he’s getting the rest of his work in. There’s no indication to the contrary.
  • Molitor’s breakdown on Duffy as an opposing pitcher: “He was part of that rotation there for a while a couple years back and had to change roles a little bit. Which I think he was willing to do given the fact that he played on a World Championship team. He got an opportunity to get back in the rotation, and he’s taken an advantage. I think he’s probably learned a little bit about himself, and how he’s most effective as a starting pitcher in this game. He doesn’t try to blow everybody away anymore, but he still has that extra gear when he needs it. He’s more of a pitcher now, I think. That changeup has become a higher-percentage pitch against the righties, and that breaking ball…he buries it down and in on the righties and it dives away from the lefties. He’s just got a nice feel for what it’s doing now. He’s not making a lot of mistakes, and he has enough pitches to confused the hitters as to what to prepare for in different counts and situations. He’s tough. Watch out for the step-off move.”

Twins
It’s Starting To Feel Like 2022 Again
By Tom Schreier - Mar 28, 2024
Twins
3 Under-the-Radar Twins Prospects to Keep An Eye On in 2024
By Cody Schoenmann - Mar 28, 2024
Twins

Can Pablo Lopez Cement His Twins Legacy In 2024?

The Twins look to Gibson not only to snap their long skid, but a personal tough stretch of his own on Wednesday night.

The Minnesota Twins begin their 2024 season on Thursday in Kansas City. It’s been a long off-season for a fanbase coming off their first postseason success in […]

Continue Reading