It just felt like there were almost two groups. There were younger guys and there were the older guys. It wasn’t just a group.
— Former Wild head coach Mike Yeo in an exit interview in late February
If you’re looking for an explanation as to why the Minnesota Twins are on pace to lose over 100 games this season, it might be worth looking across the river at what happened with the Wild last year. The Twins won 83 games last year and might win less than 50 this season; the Wild were on pace for 104 points halfway through their season and finished with 87.
Two different sports, obviously, and two different situations. But they have one thing in common: an age gap in between their impact players.
In St. Paul the Wild are led by captain Mikko Koivu (33) and alternates Zach Parise (31) and Ryan Suter (31). Thomas Vanek (32) and Jason Pominville (33) were brought in to supplement them, and both are former captains with the Buffalo Sabres. The rest of the roster, however, is filled up by a slew of 20-somethings that are coming into their own: Matt Dumba (21), Jonas Brodin (22), Mike Reilly (22), Nino Niederreiter (23), Mikael Granlund (24), Charlie Coyle (24), Jason Zucker (24), Marco Scandella (26) and Jared Spurgeon (26).
Athletes are typically at their best between ages 26-32. Part of it is science; part of it is experience
Athletes are typically at their best between ages 26-32. Part of it is science; part of it is experience. Not only are professional athletes at their physical peak between those ages, but they should have a few years of major league experience under their belt by that time. Once they hit 33 they not only are past their physical peak, but they have wear and tear from years of playing game after game at a high level every night.
There are exceptions to every rule — it’s not unheard of for a hockey player to make an impact at age 23, in baseball hitters can play into their late 30’s, etc. — but generally teams are at their best when they have a lot of players in their mid- to late-20’s and a few older leaders that can still play.
There’s also the sophomore slump phenomenon, where second-year players will see a drop in production after a strong rookie season. Teams watch tape over the winter and pick apart a player’s weaknesses, and it can take a while before that player learns to make counter-adjustments in order to return to their previous level of play. For many athletes, even the best to ever play, their second season is their hardest.
The sophomore slump may be what’s turned the Twins from surprisingly good to shockingly bad in consecutive years. Miguel Sano made an immediate impact as a rookie last season, but he regressed this season after being moved to right field and then got hurt. Eddie Rosario also has struggled after a good rookie campaign. Other young players like Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios were expected to make an impact after years of success in the minors, and while they’re not in a sophomore slump, nobody said breaking into the major leagues was an easy task.
“Every team would like to have a strong farm system, and the Twins do have quality prospects who are trying to break through and thrive in the majors,” wrote LaVelle E. Neal III in the Star Tribune’s “Total System Failure” feature in which the paper’s beat writers and columnists diagnosed what went wrong with the Twins. “But projections this year were based on prospects playing key roles, which is dangerous to do and, in this case, failed to work.”
On the other end of the age spectrum, Glen Perkins was an All-Star closer a year ago and is now on the disabled list. Ricky Nolasco has been hurt or disappointing since signing a four-year, $49 million deal in November of 2013. Ervin Santana showed signs of stardom after serving his 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension, but owns a 4.83 ERA (88 ERA+) and is only halfway through his four-year, $54 million deal.
All three are 33 years old.
“We’ve got a couple guys that are on the verge of making this club, and between Alex Meyer we have high hopes for, everybody knows that, we’re going into a situation where we’ve got a pretty good group around the diamond, and now we’ve got to find some pitching around them to make that worthwhile, so that’s exactly what we’re trying to do here,” general manager Terry Ryan said at the time that Santana was signed.
“This isn’t exactly the blueprint that we had in mind, going out and signing a guy to $55 million, the ideal is to have them keep coming through the system.”
Meyer, by the way, is 26 and owns a career 14.21 ERA in the major leagues. He is, it should be noted, nearly three years younger than the average player in the bigs. This is less to pick on the Twins, who have had trouble developing starting pitching recently, and more to point out that this trouble with player development means they are relying on young, talented and unpredictable players or they have to sign aging veterans to long-term deals.
It’s not as though Minnesota doesn’t have players in their prime
It’s not as though Minnesota doesn’t have players in their prime, to be clear. Brian Dozier (29) and Trevor Plouffe (30) are having down years, which has made it difficult for them to be clubhouse leaders in addition to making an impact on the diamond. Kyle Gibson (28) and Phil Hughes (29) have been hurt.
It should be acknowledged that Joe Mauer, 33, is having a bounce-back year. Again, there’s exceptions to every rule.
The age gap is less stark with the Twins than the Wild, and has been forced upon them with injuries in some cases. But Plouffe and Dozier’s struggles have hurt them, as has the team’s inability to turn Meyer and Trevor May (26), another injured pitcher, into reliable starting pitchers.
A lot has gone wrong with the Twins this year, but it hasn’t helped that they are relying on so many players that are on the opposite ends of the age spectrum. It hasn’t created a locker room rift like there was with the Wild, but it has contributed to an unexpected downward spiral that has dropped them to the bottom of the American League standings.
In short, there are very few players in their prime years that are contributing to the Twins this year, and when a team is relying on players that are younger than 26 and older than 33, it’s tough to have a winning season.
