After 20 games, the Minnesota Timberwolves sit at 12-8, in middle of the pack in the Western Conference. If the season ended tomorrow, they’d have 48 wins and a playoff berth. The obvious question, given the recent history of the team, is whether or not the Wolves are for real. Is their start to the season an indicator of how they will play the rest of this year?
“The general rule for most teams is the 20-game mark,” said Tom Thibodeau when asked how many games teams need to determine whether a hot start is authentic or more of a fluke before the Detroit game on Nov. 19. “That doesn’t mean it’s an end-all, that’s who you are, but it gives you an idea of what you need to improve upon, that sort of thing.”
Vegas set the line for the Wolves win total at 48.5 at the beginning of the year. If they are going to hit the over, Towns and Wiggins need to figure out Thibodeau’s defense as soon as possible. And each of the star players has to be okay with lesser stats in order to facilitate ball movement and efficient scoring. Above all else, each player has to understand that a breakdown in fundamentals can set off a chain reaction that causes the whole defensive system to collapse.
To use last Friday’s game as an example, Miami played like Minnesota should on a good night. They created open 3s, which they hit. Old friend Wayne Ellington — who the Wolves took No. 28 overall in that fateful Rubio-Flynn 2009 draft — was 6-for-9 from 3 that night, scoring 21 points from the bench. The team was 19-for-39 overall.
The Wolves took 17 3s total.
Karl-Anthony Towns didn’t score any points in the first half. None of the Wolves players topped 20, and the team scored less than 100 total. The game was over after the third quarter. “The dribble penetration was a problem. When the ball gets around the second help defender, now you’re in trouble,” Thibodeau said after the game, explaining why there were so many open corner 3s and shots near the rim — the two most efficient shots in basketball. “Our bigs [have] gotta play out of a stance more. I knew it from the beginning of the season, our bigs have to play with the back foot up. The gate is open, we’re getting beat.”
It was a prime example of a fundamental action that is causing a system breakdown. When a player brings his back foot forward, it usually contains the offensive player. “If your stance is staggered, you’re opening the gate, a guy can get by you on the first dribble,” Thibodeau said after practice the next day, when asked to clarify what he meant about the gate being open. “If your back foot is up, you’re going to be more square to the ball so you’re going to contain penetration more.”
One player’s lack of attention to detail has a ripple effect. One fundamental breakdown means a mess for the next guy to clean up, leaving an opposing player open for an easy basket. “When the ball [is passed], you have to be reading the flight of the ball,” Thibodeau explained at a recent practice. “When we [move the back foot up], we’re able to contain the penetration a lot better. If you’re staggered and the ball’s coming at you, now you’re backpedaling instead of leveling the ball off, now they’re coming at you and it puts you in a help predicament.”
This is why Taj Gibson often has to cover for Towns, who is still learning Thibodeau’s system while trying to get the minutiae right. Meanwhile Teague and Butler are figuring out when to shoot, and when to get their teammates involved. Teague isn’t a great defender, but will receive ample support if the four players behind him know what they are doing. Butler, on the other hand, has helped Wiggins live up to his $148 million extension right away by both guarding and being guarded by the best wing.
It’s an ecosystem, one that can easily be disrupted.
Thibodeau will eventually need to stagger minutes between the starters and bench so that either Towns, Wiggins and Butler is on the floor at all times. Butler and Teague need to balance passing and looking to score. Wiggins needs to improve his 3-point shooting. Bjelica needs to stay healthy. Every player in the rotation is equally capable of contributing to a win, and culpable when the team loses.
Butler doesn’t necessarily have to score 20 points a night in order to match the hype surrounding him since arriving in the Twin Cities on a draft night trade with the Chicago Bulls. But when he’s not scoring, he has to be getting his teammates involved on the offense, and locking his man down defensively.
In Minnesota’s first win over Dallas, the aforementioned 112-99 victory on Nov. 4, Butler only had four points, but he recorded seven assists and played good defense. “When I feel like it’s my time to shoot, I’ll shoot it. But as of right now, my teammates are rolling,” Butler said after the game. “Feed them. Let them get us going.”
“That’s what I love about Jimmy. Jimmy played a great game scoring four points,” Thibodeau crowed. “That’s the biggest thing he’s done so far. As time goes on, you see his aggressiveness come to scoring as well. But he’s trying to get everyone else going, and then he’ll take care of what he has to take care of at the end of the game. And that’s the great value in having a guy like that.”
But Butler had a change of heart, for some reason, a week later. Following a win over Charlotte — a back-to-back game against a well-coached, deep team that was aided by the fact that the Wolves were able to rest their starters in the blowout win over Dallas — and the loss to the Warriors, Butler said he was determined to score more.
“I’m going back to putting the ball in the basket. I like to put the ball in the basket,” he told the Star Tribune before the game in Phoenix on Nov. 11. “I think I’ve gotten really good at it over the years, so we’ll see a different player from here on out.”
Butler shot 5-for-17, scoring 25 points, but also allowing Suns star Devin Booker — his primary cover — and his backcourt mate T.J. Warren to both go off for 35 in a 118-110 loss to a team that was 4-8 at the time and had already fired their coach three games into the season. Booker’s production isn’t all on Butler, but limiting his scoring would have been more helpful than hunting for baskets. His shift in focus was counterproductive.
There’s plenty of blame to go around after a loss, just as winning has become a team effort. Towns, Wiggins, Butler and Teague are all capable of scoring 20. Jamal Crawford and Bjelica can provide pivotal scoring off the bench. Taj Gibson is a lockdown defender that has found a scoring touch at age 32. Scoring is the issue with this team. Defense is, and it needs to be corrected as soon as possible if they want home court advantage in the playoffs.
