Perhaps I shouldn’t admit it, but I enjoyed watching the Vikings lose to the Rams on Thursday. Before I am banished to the hacky-sack beat, I should add that it wasn’t actually the losing I enjoyed. Just that it was an entertaining game for the few of us who had no emotional investment in the outcome.
(Which, by the way, was right on the number, making most bets a push.)
I realize, however, that my friends whose hearts are purple are repulsed by my apostasy. Take my old pal Ernie, whose favorite hobbies are watching the Vikings and attending the monthly meetings of his conspiracy group. Ernie tells me that they’ve just about wrapped up their investigation into the JFK assassination. He’s pretty secretive about the findings, revealing only that Oswald had nothing to do with it. Which I kind of figured when they first convened 40 years ago.
Since Thursday, Ernie and his co-conspiracy investigations have been looking into the outcome of the Vikings game. Ernie, being a far-right guy, believes the loss had something to do with Hillary Clinton, although he’s pretty sure that Dianne Feinstein also shares plenty of blame.
“Ernie,” I told him, “Feinstein is 85-years-old. It’s hard enough at that age to find your keys, let alone rig a football game.”
“That’s what she wants you to believe,” he told me. “I have inside information that Alex Jones is going to come out with a different finding. Besides, Sid Hartman is still writing a newspaper column and he’s, what, 100?”
“Maybe 98,” I said. “But never mind that. What’s the evidence?”
“The evidence is in the outcome of the game. The Vikings were driving for the tying touchdown when all of a sudden Kirk Cousins fumbles the ball and the game is over. You don’t find that suspicious?”
“Well, he is kind of a high-volume fumbler,” I said.
“Gimme a break,” Ernie said. “You don’t think they’re going to let the Vikings beat a team from a socialist state like California, do you?”
“Hey, last week Cousins fumbled twice against Buffalo,” I reminded Ernie.
“And you don’t think the fix was in against the Bills?” Ernie said. “Vikings favored by 17 and get crushed. I heard Kirk’s water bottle was spiked.”
“Get a grip,” I said, growing weary. “Just look at this Rams team. They’re unstoppable. They have the NFL’s greatest running back. A quarterback with a rating of 127. Heck, their Number 3 receiver put up 162 yards vs. Minnesota.”
“Only because of injuries,” Ernie said. “And don’t you find that more than a little suspicious? I mean, you be the judge.”
Actually, I’d rather not. Power is not my thing. I just pick against the spread each week, and by Tuesday morning no one except (sadly) my bookmakers remember who I bet on. Things being what they are these days, I like being swaddled in the warm blanket of obscurity. There’s no crying in gambling. Just a lot of sad stories, bad beats and the knowledge that sinister forces are out to get me.
—
Those forces beset me last week, when my rival and protégé, Colton Molesky, made up big ground in our head-to-head battle. We are, for all practical purposes, just about tied going into Week 4. You can hear us discuss our picks in detail on the Minnesota Line podcast.
But for now, I’ve got four plays for Week 4:
Tampa at Chicago
I could be dead wrong, but I’m not convinced that Fitzpatrick rhymes with magic. For Tampa fans, it could just as easily rhyme with tragic. As much as I enjoy watching a quarterback who can ace the Wonderlic Test, history suggests that when Fitzpatrick has to play several weeks in a row, regression follows. Plus any QB could freak out when faced by the Chicago pass rush.
The pick: Bears 23, Bucs 17 — Under 46 1/2 for $50
New Orleans at New York Giants
Eli Manning is always an X-factor, but between Barkley, Beckham and Shephard, the Giants’ offense has a three-headed monster that has the potential to finish above .500 this year. As the saying goes, offenses win games but defenses win bets, and the Saints are sitting at No. 30 on the defensive charts this week. Oddly enough, Manning has been a home dog just 14 times in his pro career, and his point spread record in those games is 9-4-1.
The pick: Giants 27, Saints 24 — Giants plus 3 1/2 for $50
Seattle at Arizona
It’s hard to believe, unless you have David Johnson on your failing fantasy team, but Arizona has the fewest rushing yards in the league. (Soon to be replaced by You Know Who.) Like any other red-blooded American male with a sleep disorder, I saw all of Josh Rosen’s night games on the West Coast last year, and when the scouts said he was the most NFL-ready quarterback in the draft, it was a polite way of saying that he might not have much of a learning curve ahead of him. Given Seattle’s decent pass rush, Rosen, in his first NFL start, won’t be able to hide or run. He’s kind of slow. And given Johnson’s 3.4 yards per carry average, Rosie might be passing a lot. Oh, and Seattle shares the NFL lead with a total of 14 sacks.
The pick: Seattle 27, Arizona 17 — Seahawks minus 3 for $50
Cincinnati at Atlanta
We saw what happened last week when the Saints tried to harass Matt Ryan. The icy one tossed five touchdown passes…and lost. Lots of roughing penalties in that game, and I hope lots of them this week. I also hope that Atlanta will take advantage of a Cincy defense that allowed McCaffrey to rush for 184 yards last week. Toss in all the injuries to Atlanta defenders, and I’m looking for lots of offense.
The pick: Falcons 30, Bengals 27 — Over 51 1/2 for $50
(Note: I locked into this number before our podcast earlier this week, but since then it was announced that A. J. Green would be playing despite earlier reports that he was injured. The over-under line went up a couple of points after that.)
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