The Fantasy Football Party: Week 11 DFS Analysis

Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

The Fantasy Football Party will post a values story every week at ZoneCoverage.com to help you set winning DFS lineups for the show listener league and all the other great games at FantasyDraft.com — our exclusive DFS partner for 2018!

Whether you’re getting in our weekly listener league for just $5 or playing for big money in tournaments like the Wishbone, Flea Flicker or Pump And Go, you’ll want to take advantage of the value plays on the board at FantasyDraft.com this week. And that’s where we come in. Below are some of the players at each position who stand out one way or another on this week’s main slate (11 games) using the modeling tool at FantasyLabs.com.

All scoring projections/rankings are from their cash model for Week 11. If you’ve never played at FantasyDraft before, use the listener league link above and deposit at least $10 and you’ll automatically get a free $4 GPP ticket! And if you’re not a FantasyLabs subscriber, get half off a trial membership with the code 50OFF.

And now, on with the countdown…

QUARTERBACK

Dak Prescott at Atlanta — $10,200

If you’re hoping to save at quarterback this week, Prescott has a favorable matchup and a solid floor thanks to his rushing ability. Dak threw a season-high 36 times for a near-season-high 270 yards last week, which is hardly anything to write home about. But against the Falcons, who over their last eight games have given up 300-plus passing yards or three-plus passing touchdowns each and every game — and in half of the games both — new season standards are on the horizon. And if not, there’s that aforementioned floor; Prescott has rushing touchdowns in three of his last four games and six or more rushing attempts in four of five. There’s a reason he’s FantasyLabs’ No. 4 quarterback value this week.

RUNNING BACK

David Johnson vs. Oakland — $13,300

So nice we’ll use him twice. Yes, Johnson headlined the running backs section last week and I’m not about to quibble if you’d rather spend your top-end running back DFS dollar on Zeke or Saquon or Melvin — all at least three grand more than DJ. Not that $13.3K is a bargain for a back, but I’ll spend up elsewhere and “settle” for Johnson coming off 28 touches, 183 yards, and a pair of touchdowns. Especially when you consider he’s facing the Raiders, who just let Melvin Gordon roll for 165 combo yards and a touchdown against them. Also in their recent history are 100-yard rushing games to immortals like Marlon Mack, Nick Chubb and Phillip Lindsay. All told the Raiders are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. Johnson at this price is like having a coupon for a fancy steakhouse; you’re getting plenty of flavor for the price.

Nov 11, 2018; Kansas City, MO, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson (31) is tackled by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Eric Murray (21) in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Dion Lewis at Indianapolis — $9,500

It’s not just that Lewis appears to be the RB1 in Tennessee’s backfield; even though Derrick Henry is getting the money shots, Lewis has had more carries each of the past three games and produced an average of 70 yards per game. Toss in another 45 receiving yards per game over that span and now we’re onto something — especially against an Indy defense that’s allowed four backs to catch at least five passes over their last three games and has given up two double-digit reception games to running backs already this season. All for a price tag in the Doug Martin range? Sign me up!

WIDE RECEIVER

Amari Cooper at Atlanta — $11,300

If you want to spend money on wide receivers, Week 11 was crafted with you in mind. There are five receivers priced higher than Antonio Brown — two of them by $2K each! Pick a matchup and stack accordingly.

At a $5K discount from the top shelf receivers, you’ll find Cooper, who has to be thrilled to be out of Jon Gruden’s pit of dysfunction. He’ll be even giddier eyeballing this week’s matchup with the Falcons. The last five wide receivers to see 10 targets against Atlanta each produced 100-yard games, averaging almost 120 yards per game and combining for three touchdowns. Cooper saw his first 10-target game as a Cowboy last week, just the second time this season Prescott has leaned so heavily on one target. Bet that this one sticks, with Cooper’s catches and yardage ascending for a third straight week.

Oct 28, 2018; Charlotte, NC, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Willie Snead (83) reaches for the ball in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Willie Snead vs. Cincinnati — $8,400

On the surface, there are myriad reasons to steer away from this game. As of this writing, we aren’t quite sure who will be quarterbacking the Ravens on Sunday. We do know Marvin Lewis will be calling the defenses for Cincinnati, however, and that should provide some reassurance. Though FantasyLabs has Michael Crabtree as their No. 15 value at WR and Snead doesn’t clock in until four spots later at No. 19, Willie gets the pick over running mates Crabtree ($9,500) and John Brown ($11,00) because he’s cheaper and because over the last four games he leads the trio in targets, averaging nine per game. There should be more than enough to go around against the Bengals, who have allowed six wide receiver touchdowns and five 100-yard receivers in their last four games; eight different wideouts have 68 yards or better against Cincy during that span.

TIGHT END

Evan Engram vs. Tampa Bay — $8,100

With Zach Ertz prohibitively priced at least $4,500 more than any other tight end option, “spending up” this week is a relative term. Both Trey Burton and Greg Olsen are $9,400 and have favorable matchups; take your pick. At the opposite end of the spectrum are dart throws like Ricky Seals-Jones ($5,600) and Jonnu Smith ($5,200) — both with favorable matchups but zero track record of consistency. What’s wrong with the middle?

Nov 12, 2018; Santa Clara, CA, USA; New York Giants tight end Evan Engram (88) is unable to make a catch against the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Nothing, that’s what. And that’s where you’ll find the criminally underused Evan Engram. If you’re looking for a bargain bite of the breathtakingly bad Bucs defense, Double E is your guy. Tampa has given up at least 50 receiving yards to a tight end in eight of the last nine games and a TE TD in five of the last seven. Concerned placing your DFS faith in Eli Manning? Consider that FantasyLabs has Engram with the sixth-highest projected points for tight ends. At this price, with this matchup, he’s a risk worth taking.

DEFENSE

Arizona vs. Oakland — $6,000

No matter how you like to slice your DFS defense, this week has a play for you. The surging Chargers hosting the struggling Broncos will cost you more than any other defense on the slate, and if you’re a bargain shopper the Giants get the mercurial Buccaneers for just $4,600. We discuss at length both the Giants defense and the issues southern teams have with winter weather on the podcast, so to cover all the bases let’s talk about the Cardinals here.

Nov 11, 2018; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (27) is knocked out of bounds by Arizona Cardinals safety Antoine Bethea (41) and safety Tre Boston (33) in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona was a preseason favorite but got off to such a lousy start they were all but forgotten. However, they’ve managed multiple sacks in every game this year, including four or more in four of their last five contests. Plus, they’ll be facing a Raiders’ squad that apparently can’t ship its talent out of town fast enough. Under the watchful sneer of Jon Gruden Oakland has scored in the single digits in three of its last four games and surrendered at least three sacks in six of its last seven — including a dozen the past two weeks alone. Many opportunities for this to go right, while saving a few DFS bucks in the process.

There is an endless trove of additional data plus incredible tools for modeling, lineup building and more at FantasyLabs.com. If you play DFS, FantasyLabs will make you a better player. Use the code 50OFF to get half off a trial membership. And be sure to get in on the DFS fun at FantasyDraft! Start by joining the listener league for just $5. Good luck this week!

The Fantasy Football Party is recorded each week by John Tuvey, Bo Mitchell and Anthony Maggio. You can also find a story from one of the three each week right here at ZoneCoverage.com. Subscribe to the podcast and never miss an episode by clicking here for iTunes or here for Android.

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