The Fantasy Football Party: Week 6 DFS Analysis

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Fantasy Football Party posts a value analysis every week at ZoneCoverage.com to help you set winning DFS lineups for the podcast listener league and all the other great games at FantasyDraft.com — our exclusive DFS partner for 2018! 

Before taking a gander at this week’s values, I would be remiss if I didn’t remind you that the Lions and Saints are on bye this week, so remove those players from your re-draft league lineups and target them for trades if teams are in a bind with too many bye week guys.

Now then, let’s run through some players at each position who stand out in one way or another for DFS use by using the modeling tool at FantasyLabs.com. All scoring projections/rankings are from their cash model for Week 6.

QUARTERBACK

Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. Tampa Bay $12,700

Ryan is one of seven quarterbacks that will cost you between $12,000 and $13,000 to use in your lineup this week at FantasyDraft, and none of them have a softer matchup. Enjoying a resurgence of sorts this season, Ryan will be at home against the worst pass defense in the league this Sunday. The Buccaneers are allowing 358 (!) passing yards per game and ceding the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have permitted an NFL-high 13 touchdown passes even though they have already had a bye. Start Ryan and anyone you can stack him with in your DFS lineups this week.

Sep 30, 2018; Chicago, IL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) looks to pass the ball against the Chicago Bears during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Jameis Winston, Buccaneers at Atlanta $11,000

Actually, give me either of the quarterbacks in this game! If Ryan is too expensive, take Winston. Better yet, set multiple lineups and use them both. In Vegas, this game has the second-highest over-under of the week (57.5) behind only the Patriots and Chiefs game. That seems about right. Fantasy Labs has Winston slated as their No. 4 quarterback value this week; even if you don’t trust me (why are you reading this then?) you have to respect the DFS mavens at Fantasy Labs.

RUNNING BACK

James White, Patriots vs. Kansas City $11,400

Sony Michel, Patriots vs. Kansas City $11,300

At these prices, you can’t go wrong with either Patriots running back. As noted above, this game has the highest over-under of the week (59) so all the sharpies are projecting copious touchdowns. Michel has emerged as the Patriots feature back, with 210 rushing yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns the past two weeks. Meanwhile, White already has 32 receptions and has scored five touchdowns in five games. That’s money talking.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers at Cleveland $7,900

Here at the Fantasy Football Party, we are envisioning a weird and wacky game in Cleveland this Sunday. The Chargers will be playing at 10 a.m. on their internal clocks against a defense that leads the NFL in takeaways and quarterback hurries. A shoot-out between Philip Rivers and Baker Mayfield is what our Spidey senses suggest. Give me Ekeler at this price in that scenario, as he will get his share of touches in both the running and passing game. His two-game scoring streak is a solid bet to continue.

Oct 7, 2018; Carson, CA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) runs for a touchdown against Oakland Raiders strong safety Marcus Gilchrist (31) during the second quarter at StubHub Center. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Ito Smith, Falcons vs. Buccaneers $6,000

The rookie has touchdowns in two straight games and received a good chunk of the touches (including at the goal line) even with Devonta Freeman back (temporarily) last week. Freeman now has a foot injury, leaving his status in doubt. If you are making DFS lineups on Sunday morning and Freeman is inactive again, Smith is a beautiful plug-and-play option. As noted already, there are a lot of points to be had in this matchup. Even better, the $6,000 price tag is literally the lowest for running backs at FantasyDraft. That, my friends, is value.

WIDE RECEIVER

Jarvis Landry, Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers $12,300

Only seven teams have allowed more receiving yards and only two have allowed more touchdown receptions to wide receivers this season than the Chargers defense Landry faces this Sunday. The last time Jarvis faced a pass defense roughly this lousy was back in Week 1 when he caught seven passes for 106 yards from some long-forgotten quarterback named Tyrod Something-or-other. Watch for the Mayfield-to-Landry connection to heat up, especially with Rashard Higgins nursing a sprained MCL.

Tyler Boyd, Bengals vs. Pittsburgh $11,300

The Bengals-Steelers game has the third-highest over-under in Vegas this week at 53. There will be plenty of points scored in this one, so deploy Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon and A.J. Green with confidence but also consider using Boyd. He’s averaging five receptions for 79 yards per game and has already found the end zone twice this season – slightly better numbers than the aforementioned Jarvis Landry. More impressive numbers are on the way this week and Boyd will cost you a whopping $3,000 less than Green.

Sep 30, 2018; Atlanta, GA, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd (83) runs after a catch against Atlanta Falcons cornerback Isaiah Oliver (20) in the third quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Mohamed Sanu, Falcons vs. Tampa Bay $9,400

Remember way back to the beginning of this list when I described how juicy this matchup looks for the Falcons’ passing game? Clearly, Julio Jones ($14,900) and Calvin Ridley ($11,600) make for quality DFS plays, but Sanu will cost you thousands less. Over his three most recent games, Mo has 14 receptions for 220 yards and two touchdowns. For the math-impaired, that’s about five catches for 73 yards and 1.5 touchdowns against teams that are not as awful as the Buccaneers are at stopping wide receivers.

TIGHT END 

Austin Hooper, Falcons vs. Tampa Bay $7,000

At the risk of beating a dead horse, Hooper makes another fine option for stacking with Ryan. He exploded last week for season-highs of nine receptions and 77 receiving yards. On average, no defense is allowing more fantasy points per game to tight ends than the Buccaneers. That is all you really need to know.

Oct 7, 2018; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper (81) runs after a catch against Pittsburgh Steelers strong safety Terrell Edmunds (34) during the first quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

C.J. Uzomah, Bengals vs. Pittsburgh $5,900 

If high-priced Falcons receivers have limited your budget this week, please consider Uzomah as your tight end in DFS. The Steelers have allowed the most tight end receptions (40), second most yards to tight ends (424) and are tied for the second most touchdowns allowed to tight ends (three). In his first game playing the role of Tyler Eifert for the Bengals, Uzomah had two receptions for 43 yards while teammate Tyler Kroft has no catches.

DEFENSE

Houston Texans vs. Buffalo $6,900

J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are a problem for opposing offensive lines again. A massive problem. To the surprise of precisely nobody, Watt is tied for the league lead with 6.0 sacks. Unfortunately for the Bills, they have allowed an NFL-high 22 sacks this season. Fortunately for you, the Texans aren’t the highest-priced defense at FantasyDraft this week. It’s close. They have the third-highest price tag. It’s worth it this week.

Oct 7, 2018; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) plays catch with fans before a game against the Dallas Cowboys at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago Bears at Miami $6,400

A well-rested Bears team that ranks second in the NFL with 18 sacks and is tied for second with 11 takeaways — even though they had a bye last week — is taking its Monsters to South Beach this Sunday. There they will encounter Ryan Tannehill hiding behind an offensive line that has already lost two starters to Injured Reserve. Best of all, they cost even less than the Texans this week.

There is an endless trove of additional data plus incredible tools for modeling, lineup building and more at FantasyLabs.com. If you play DFS, FantasyLabs will make you a better player. Use the code 50OFF to get half off a trial membership.

The Fantasy Football Party is recorded each week by John Tuvey, Bo Mitchell and Anthony Maggio. Subscribe to the podcast and never miss an episode by clicking here for iTunes or here for Android.

Follow us on Twitter!

  • @TheFFParty
  • @MPLSMaggio
  • @Bo_Mitchell
  • @jtuvey

Become a Zone Coverage Member Today!

The Fantasy Football Party: Week 16 DFS Analysis
By John Tuvey - Dec 21, 2018
The Fantasy Football Party: Week 15 DFS Analysis
By John Tuvey - Dec 13, 2018

The Fantasy Football Party: Week 13 DFS Analysis

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Fantasy Football Party posts a values analysis every week at Zone Coverage to help you set winning DFS lineups for the podcast listener league and all […]

Continue Reading