The Fantasy Football Party: Week 9 DFS Analysis

Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

The Fantasy Football Party will post a values story every week at ZoneCoverage.com to help you set winning DFS lineups for the show listener league and all the other great games at FantasyDraft.com — our exclusive DFS partner for 2018!

Whether you’re getting in our weekly listener league for just $5 or playing for big money in tournaments like the Wishbone, Flea Flicker or Pump And Go, you’ll want to take advantage of the value plays on the board at FantasyDraft.com this week. And that’s where we come in. Below are some of the players at each position who stand out one way or another on this week’s main slate (11 games) using the modeling tool at FantasyLabs.com.

All scoring projections/rankings are from their cash model for Week 9. If you’ve never played at FantasyDraft before, use the listener league link above and deposit at least $10 and you’ll automatically get a free $4 GPP ticket! And if you’re not a FantasyLabs subscriber, get half off a trial membership with the code 50OFF.

And now, on with the countdown…

QUARTERBACK

Jared Goff at New Orleans — $11,300

At this point, more than 120 percent of DFS lineups are created by first inserting Patrick Mahomes at the quarterback position no matter what the price. It’s science. And if that’s your preferred modus operandi then feel free to skip ahead to the value plays noted at the other positions, because to afford Patomic you’re shopping in the bargain bins.

Oct 28, 2018; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16) is sacked by Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews (52) during the fourth quarter at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re looking to create a different, non-Mahomesian lineup but you still like paying up at quarterback, Goff is your most cost-effective option. Oh, sure, you could roll with Cam Newton, who has rushing touchdowns in three straight at home against the Bucs and multiple passing scores in seven straight; there’s plenty to like there. But for a grand less you get Goff in what the guys with really nice watches in Vegas say will be the point-fest of the week. That’s Goff, averaging 303 and 2 a game, against a defense that’s already served as fodder for 417 and 4 from FitzMagic, 374 and 5 from Matt Ryan and 359 and 2 from Kirk Cousins. The almost-as-nice-watch guys at FantasyLabs concur, making Goff their No. 6 quarterback value. So the question becomes: is Goff twice the fantasy quarterback Eli Manning (255 and 1 against the Saints) is? Or three times? Vote with your salary cap; lines are open now. 

Alex Smith at Washington — $10,000

Roster construction is a very personal thing, much like making a sandwich; no two people do it exactly the same. If you prefer to plump up the innards of your lineup with high-end running backs and wideouts, you’ll have to scrimp somewhere. At a rock-bottom price—seriously, he’s in the same DFS tax bracket this week as Nathan Peterman, Sam Darnold, and 17 guys you’ve never even heard of—Smith fits that bill. He has yet to transfer the success he had with Andy Reid in Kansas City to our nation’s capital, and in fact he hasn’t even posted a 200-yard passing game in a month.

But a banged-up Falcons defense can be the cure for what ails. Heck, all Smith has to do is be Eli Manning, who dropped 399 yards on Atlanta last week, the fifth game of at least 335 yards the Falcons have served up in their last six outings. You quite literally will not find a cheaper quarterback on the FantasyDraft slate this week, and the chances of Smith returning massively on your pittance of an investment are roughly the equivalent of the next television ad you see being a political attack ad.

RUNNING BACK

Kareem Hunt at Cleveland — $14,600

Even as the sixth-highest priced back on the FantasyDraft board Hunt is still almost a $4K savings over Todd Gurley—not to mention FantasyLabs’ No. 3 cash game value at running back. And while Gurley will certainly be getting his, take the fake money and get reasonable facsimile production from Hunt against a defense that’s already allowed four 100-yard rushing games and an equal number of multiple rushing touchdown outings to opposing backs. Hunt’s crossed the stripe at least once in seven straight games, has both a 100-yard rushing and receiving game to his credit, and will enjoy a homecoming of sorts as he returns to the Cleveland area where he was born and raised.

You think he doesn’t want to remind that teacher who gave him a C on his biology product who’s getting the final laugh? Actually, I have no idea about Hunt’s grades; in all likelihood he aced high school bio and his teachers loved him. In which case he’ll post big numbers to honor all the neighbors who’ll turn out to celebrate his success. Either way, he’s dropping big numbers on the Browns and you stand to benefit.

Latavius Murray vs. Detroit — $10,100

At the time this was written, Dalvin Cook’s availability for Week 9 was uncertain. But with a bye week looming and the Lions… well, let’s just say “not offering the most rigorous of oppositions to the ground game,” it makes sense for the Vikings to let Cook heal fully while bludgeoning the Honolulu Blue with a heavy dose of the L-Train.

FantasyLabs is on board; they rank Latavius as the No. 2 cash game value amongst running backs. Murray has made end zone stops in three straight games, which not so coincidentally are also the only three games he’s received at least a dozen carries. That workload should continue, against a Detroit defense that’s already served up four 100-yard games on the season. All aboard one of the better nicknames currently rocking out in the NFL!

Trenton Cannon at Miami — $7,000

This almost became an Aaron Jones write-up, given his budget-friendly $9,400 price tag at FantasyDraft and the anticipated uptick in touches with Aaron Rogers trading away Ty Montgomery. Then I remembered that a.) this is a Vikings-centric space and b.) I’m a Vikings-centric guy who wouldn’t even let his kids connect the green legos to the yellow legos and c.) Mike McCarthy is still the Packers coach so expecting logic to rule the roost is far from a given. So instead we’ll toss a dart at Cannon, who finds himself in that sweet spot between Bilal Powell’s season-ending injury and Elijah McGuire’s potential return from injured reserve.

Oct 28, 2018; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears free safety Eddie Jackson (39) tackles New York Jets running back Trenton Cannon (40) at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

Over the last two games he’s handled a nice workload of six and nine touches, and this week he’ll spell Isaiah Crowell from time to time against a Dolphins defense that’s giving up the most yardage and third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.  Trenton is an indigent man’s Tarik Cohen, and if you’ve stacked your lineup elsewhere he’s a low-cost dart with upside thanks to a top-end speed like he’s shot out of a… nope, can’t do it. You fill in the blank.

WIDE RECEIVER

Courtland Sutton vs. Houston — $7,700

If you like to spread your DFS dough amongst wide receivers, this is your week. There are solid eight studs at the top of the board, ranging from sure-thing Adam Thielen at $16,700 to sure-thing Michael Thomas at $14,300. You can come up with your own compelling reasons to work either of those guys — or Hopkins, Adams, Brown, Evans, Hill, or Jones — into your lineup without further ado from me.

Oct 18, 2018; Glendale, AZ, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) against Arizona Cardinals cornerback Bene Benwikere (23) at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Instead, I’ll focus on a couple of serious value plays you can flex to offset your big spending elsewhere. At the top of the list is Sutton, who was already seeing plenty of opportunity in Denver before the Broncos shipped Demaryius Thomas to Houston. Now running unopposed as one of Case Keenum’s top two targets, Sutton can build on the 182 yards and two touchdowns he’s produced over the past month. Taking the lion’s share of the seven targets per game Thomas vacates will certainly help and is one of the reasons FantasyLabs tabs Sutton as their No. 15 wide receiver value. You’ll never see Sutton priced this low again, so take advantage while you can. 

D.J. Moore vs. Tampa Bay — $7,900

Just a couple hundo more than Sutton, Moore is FantasyLabs‘ No. 16 wide receiver value. Like Sutton, the last month has seen Moore maturing into a larger role in his team’s offense; last week he saw more targets than any two other Panthers’ wideouts combined and accounted for 60 percent of their yardage—plus he had two carries as well. All signs point toward Moore being unleashed against a Tampa Bay secondary that’s given up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers including 100-yard games to the likes of Taylor Gabriel and Tyler Boyd. It’s another case of enjoying the low price while you can, because it’s not likely to last. 

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen vs. Tampa Bay — $8,700

A third off Gronk’s price tag, with a healthier back and better numbers; what’s not to like? If you’re paying up at the tight end position but don’t want to Gronk or already hit your limit on Chiefs in a lineup, Olsen offers a splendid alternative. He’s averaging 6-83 with two 100-yard games the last four times the Bucs have come to town, and he’s scored in two straight since returning from his own foot injury. No need to dig too deep if they’re giving you a layup at this price point. But don’t just take my word for it; Olsen checks in as FantasyLabs’ No. 3 value at tight end.

Oct 21, 2018; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) celebrates with Baltimore Ravens tight end Nick Boyle (86) after scoring a third quarter against the New Orleans Saints at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Andrews/Hayden Hurst vs. Steelers — $5,000

Let’s say you’re all tapped out and need to plug in the absolute cheapest tight end you can find. Take your pick of Ravens against a Steelers’ defense that’s surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Choose between Andrews, who was targeted more frequently last week, and Hurst, who found the end zone last week. FantasyLabs leans Andrews, while I’m inclined to go with Hurst. But that’s just the wild and crazy kind of guy I am. All of which virtually guarantees a Nick Boyle (also $5K) touchdown.

DEFENSE

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland — $5,300

In the weekly 50/50 contest from our podcast (check it out, if you haven’t already) last week, I rolled with the Steelers against Cleveland thinking Baker Mayfield could make Pittsburgh a yuuuge value play. Didn’t happen. Fool me once, won’t get fooled again or something like that, yet here I am back at the Browns door with another defensive value play. FantasyLabs agrees, making the Chiefs their No. 4 value DST this week. Much of the same logic from last week applies, and keep in mind that just because you were wrong doesn’t mean you weren’t right. Trust the process, right?  

There is an endless trove of additional data plus incredible tools for modeling, lineup building and more at FantasyLabs.com. If you play DFS, FantasyLabs will make you a better player. Use the code 50OFF to get half off a trial membership. And be sure to get in on the DFS fun at FantasyDraft! Start by joining the listener league for just $5. Good luck this week!

The Fantasy Football Party is recorded each week by John Tuvey, Bo Mitchell and Anthony Maggio. You can also find a story from one of the three each week right here at ZoneCoverage.com. Subscribe to the podcast and never miss an episode by clicking here for iTunes or here for Android.

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