With the second and third rounds of the 2018 NFL draft beginning on Friday, it’s worth taking a look at which players top the Consensus Big Board, a printable version of which you can find here. The players will be listed by their consensus rank, their forecaster and evaluator ranks (explained here) and their analytical rank (explained here)
Offensive Line
We should start on the offensive line, where it seems like the Vikings will want to make an investment. If Rick Spielman is as good this year as he is most years at reading the landscape of the draft, he’ll find a sweet spot for offensive linemen.
Consensus | Forecaster | Evaluator | Analytic | Player | School | Pos | Pos Rk |
23 | 33 | 20 | 15 | Connor Williams | Texas | OT | 2 |
25 | 24 | 25 | 27 | Will Hernandez | UTEP | OG | 3 |
29 | 28 | 28 | 28 | James Daniels | Iowa | OC | 1 |
49 | 54 | 49 | 49 | Tyrell Crosby | Oregon | OT | 4 |
51 | 58 | 50 | 54 | Austin Corbett | Nevada | OG | 5 |
61 | 60 | 61 | 56 | Braden Smith | Auburn | OG | 6 |
68 | 64 | 69 | 73 | Orlando Brown | Oklahoma | OT | 5 |
70 | 65 | 70 | 86 | Martinas Rankin | Mississippi St. | OT | 6 |
72 | 61 | 72 | 69 | Brian O’Neill | Pittsburgh | OT | 7 |
75 | 94 | 73 | 74 | Chukwuma Okorafor | Wstn Michigan | OT | 8 |
Connor Williams, Will Hernandez and James Daniels are a tier above the remaining players in the class when it comes to offensive line rankings, and if they continue to fall, the Vikings might be tempted to trade up before they hit a cliff in talent.
Braden Smith is a potentially sneaky-good pick who almost made our top five positional rankings on the interior line whose numbers look excellent and the Vikings are reportedly impressed with Nevada tackle Austin Corbett, who will likely play guard in the NFL.
Interior Defensive Line
Despite signing Sheldon Richardson, there’s a good expectation that the Vikings will attempt to find a long-term solution next to Linval Joseph if Jaleel Johnson cannot grow into that role. Some excellent interior defenders went in the first round of the draft, but there’s still some value available.
Consensus | Forecaster | Evaluator | Analytic | Player | School | Pos | Pos Rk |
19 | 31 | 18 | 24 | Maurice Hurst | Michigan | DL3T | 1 |
53 | 46 | 54 | 43 | Harrison Phillips | Stanford | DL1T | 3 |
62 | 66 | 65 | 71 | Nathan Shepherd | Fort Hays St. | DL3T | 3 |
73 | 62 | 75 | 57 | Rasheem Green | USC | DL5T | 1 |
Evaluators loved him, but forecasters correctly predicted Maurice Hurst falling in the draft, whether that be due to medical concerns or otherwise. He could be the best defensive tackle in the draft, especially after accounting for the positional value one finds in a three-technique over a nose tackle.
Harrison Phillips is an ultra-productive player that many expect to play nose tackle but whose production profile suggests a pass-rusher who can be on the field for all three downs. His athleticism concerns are very real, however, and any team that drafts him should have a clear plan in place.
Nathan Shepherd is one of my personal favorites if Hurst is either unavailable or is off the board because of his medical concerns. Shepherd was a beast at the Senior Bowl and showcased his eminent coachability to overcome concerns about his hand usage and technical ability at Fort Hays State. He’s fluid and can add weight to play a hybrid defensive tackle role or lose it (and be closer to his college playing weight) to play a three-technique role. He should thrive.
Rasheem Green is an interesting player that will likely play on the outside in the NFL and isn’t quite a defensive tackle in the traditional sense. If the Vikings pick him, it will be like a supercharged version of B.J. Dubose or Christian Ballard, players who played both three-technique and on the outside.
Wide Receiver
Consensus | Forecaster | Evaluator | Analytic | Player | School | Pos | Pos Rk |
31 | 36 | 31 | 36 | Courtland Sutton | SMU | WRF | 2 |
44 | 45 | 44 | 45 | Christian Kirk | Texas A&M | WRF | 4 |
48 | 50 | 48 | 60 | Anthony Miller | Memphis | WRS | 1 |
50 | 53 | 52 | 52 | James Washington | Oklahoma St. | WRF | 5 |
60 | 49 | 60 | 47 | D.J. Chark | LSU | WRF | 6 |
67 | 69 | 67 | 67 | Dante Pettis | Washington | WRF | 7 |
71 | 74 | 71 | 66 | Michael Gallup | Colorado St. | WRF | 8 |
Courtland Sutton is the only receiver here that is a consensus first-round pick, and receiver rankings for those that are left have been surprisingly consistent across the big boards, with no players standing out as particularly polarizing.
Sutton is also probably the best and only true red-zone receiver in the bunch, though there’s some expectation that Michael Gallup can grow into the role. Otherwise, the Vikings would have deep threats (D.J. Chark, James Washington and Dante Pettis) and somewhat undersized inside route-runners (Anthony Miller, Christian Kirk and Dante Pettis) to choose from. If they want that red zone element, they’ll likely want to wait until value can be had later in the draft.
Tight End
The consensus board is not impressed with the tight end class, but neither is the NFL — with Hayden Hurst going in the first round, all of the top tight ends are still available.
Consensus | Forecaster | Evaluator | Analytic | Player | School | Pos | Pos Rk |
40 | 37 | 42 | 38 | Dallas Goedert | South Dakota St. | TE | 1 |
46 | 47 | 45 | 44 | Mike Gesicki | Penn St. | TE | 2 |
63 | 75 | 63 | 55 | Mark Andrews | Oklahoma | TE | 4 |
Nobody here is known for their blocking, but Goedert is far and away the best of the bunch at the skill. Goedert and Gesicki both excel at high-pointing the ball, and could be great red-zone targets while Andrews is like a taller Jordan Reed — who Kirk Cousins targeted quite a bit. Andrews is fine on contested catches but really excels at exploiting athletic mismatches between the 20s.
Edge Defender
A true best-player-available approach would suggest that Harold Landry is the target, at least per the consensus board, where he ranks as the single-best available player. The Vikings have a proclivity for drafting edge defender talent to consistently fill the ranks, but the second round may be too early unless Landry falls.
Consensus | Forecaster | Evaluator | Analytic | Player | School | Pos | Pos Rk |
13 | 25 | 12 | 13 | Harold Landry | Boston College | EDGE | 2 |
47 | 57 | 47 | 53 | Sam Hubbard | Ohio St. | EDGE | 4 |
56 | 51 | 57 | 63 | Lorenzo Carter | Georgia | EDGE | 5 |
58 | 71 | 51 | 48 | Josh Sweat | Florida St. | EDGE | 6 |
66 | 77 | 62 | 64 | Arden Key | LSU | EDGE | 7 |
74 | 68 | 74 | 68 | Uchenna Nwosu | USC | EDGE | 8 |
Other than Landry, there are a number of intriguing options. Sam Hubbard, Lorenzo Carter, Josh Sweat and Uchenna Nwosu are all fantastic athletes for the position (with Nwosu’s athletic profile comparing favorably to Khalil Mack’s) and Key is a player whose 2016 tape (somewhat like Landry) would put him in the conversation for a top-five pick. They all have different production profiles — some are pretty poor producers — but the Vikings seem to care more about tools than past production at the position, and all of these players have tools, even if one of them (Key) didn’t bother to take care of them for a year.
Linebacker
With only two linebackers in the top 75 of the remaining players, it doesn’t seem as if the Vikings are in a sweet spot to get a linebacker, especially given their talents.
Consensus | Forecaster | Evaluator | Analytic | Player | School | Pos | Pos Rk |
65 | 76 | 64 | 70 | Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | Oklahoma | LB | 5 |
69 | 72 | 68 | 62 | Malik Jefferson | Texas | LB | 6 |
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo may be more of an edge rusher than linebacker, but is listed as a linebacker here mostly because of the data that the consensus board received. He’s an above-average athlete at the edge position — like the other edge defenders that are available in the second round — and produced a fair amount, but does have the movement capability to be moved off the ball.
Malik Jefferson is an athlete that may be better positioned to convert to the edge, though he’d be undersized for the position. He simply hasn’t demonstrated the kinds of instincts and play-reading skills one expects for an off-the-ball player, but could be molded into an interesting athlete with the right coaching staff.
Running Back
It’s difficult to imagine the Vikings going with a running back here, but a “best player available approach” would approve of a Derrius Guice selection. Guice, 14th on the board, is well-regarded in the scouting community as a two-down back with great three-down upside.
Consensus | Forecaster | Evaluator | Analytic | Player | School | Pos | Pos Rk |
14 | 23 | 14 | 17 | Derrius Guice | LSU | RBF | 2 |
35 | 39 | 34 | 35 | Ronald Jones II | USC | RBF | 3 |
39 | 42 | 40 | 51 | Nick Chubb | Georgia | RBF | 5 |
59 | 63 | 56 | 58 | Kerryon Johnson | Auburn | RBF | 6 |
Other than that, Ronald Jones and Kerryon Johnson offer much more pass-catching upside, though both profile as feature backs more than complementary backs. Nick Chubb has a pass-catching skillset but wasn’t used in that way very much at Georgia. I’d expect the Vikings to pass on a running back here until Day 3.
Safety
The Vikings haven’t invested much capital in the safety position since 2012 when they got Harrison Smith and I can’t imagine that would change much after they got their single-best season from any safety to play next to Smith. Still, it’s worth taking a look because head coach Mike Zimmer loves defensive backs.
Consensus | Forecaster | Evaluator | Analytic | Player | School | Pos | Pos Rk |
38 | 41 | 37 | 33 | Ronnie Harrison | Alabama | S | 3 |
43 | 40 | 39 | 37 | Justin Reid | Stanford | S | 4 |
57 | 55 | 58 | 61 | Jessie Bates III | Wake Forest | S | 5 |
Harrison’s production as a safety is mind-boggling, though one has to account for how friendly an environment Alabama is for defensive back production. He’s the best coverage safety by the numbers in the draft and a more-than-capable run-stopper.
Reid is a versatile player that should be able to play nickel corner in a pinch (like he did at Stanford) and whose athletic skillset should translate well to safety, particularly because of how he relished contact against the run.
Jessie Bates reminds me of the Vikings mold of safety insofar as he is a tremendous hitter but not a great wrap-up tackler. He’s capable of man and zone coverage play, and his instincts should translate well to the NFL. He trusts what he sees, and that’s a key trait for defensive backs, and one Zimmer has stressed. His frame and tackling angles are a concern, but I’d argue he’s underrated by the Consensus Board at 57.
Cornerback
Consensus | Forecaster | Evaluator | Analytic | Player | School | Pos | Pos Rk |
18 | 22 | 19 | 19 | Josh Jackson | Iowa | CB | 3 |
37 | 35 | 38 | 39 | Isaiah Oliver | Colorado | CB | 5 |
42 | 59 | 43 | 40 | Carlton Davis | Auburn | CB | 6 |
52 | 52 | 53 | 65 | Donte Jackson | LSU | CB | 7 |
I’m listing cornerbacks because it’s good practice. I don’t think the Vikings will draft another one in Day 2, though they will likely be open to the possibility on Day 3.