The numbers aren’t in Minnesota’s favor, that’s for sure.
The Los Angeles Rams (3-0) are good enough to begin with before one takes into account that: A) Teams are 1-7 when traveling to the West Coast on Thursday Night Football since 2006, B) Mike Zimmer is 1-4 on Thursdays with the Vikings, and C) Zimmer is 0-4 in the regular season when coming off a loss by 20 or more points.
ALSO READ: Thursday Games Haven’t Been Kind to Zimmer, Vikings
The Vikings traveled to L.A. on Tuesday to adjust their body clocks in an effort to combat Reasons Nos. 1 and 2, but they’ll need more than an early flight to provide the emotional bounce back needed to combat Reason No. 3. Not only did Minnesota get humiliated by Buffalo, but they lost an emotional leader in Everson Griffen to a jarring off-field incident.
Before making a pick, let’s look at some of the key matchups.
MINNESOTA’S OFFENSE vs LOS ANGELES’ DEFENSE
Thursday Night Football usually comes with a hefty injury list, and this week is no different. RB Dalvin Cook (hamstring) and LT Riley Reiff (foot) are questionable to play for the Vikings, while LB Dominique Easley (knee), LB Mark Barron (ankle) and CB Marcus Peters (calf) are questionable for the Rams (CB Aqib Talib was placed on injured reserve this week).
On one hand, the Vikings have a chance to cash in against a depleted Rams secondary that had previously been ranked second in coverage by Pro Football Focus. Nickell Robey-Coleman and Sam Shields should see extended time, especially if Peters doesn’t play, which should give the Vikings an advantage. Adam Thielen is currently fourth in the league in receiving yards and had a big day against L.A. a year ago with 123 yards and a touchdown.
On the other hand, the Vikings offensive line may have another new iteration if Reiff can’t play, which likely forces Rashod Hill into left tackle duty and Brian O’Neill into the right tackle spot. Minnesota’s guards will also be stretched against Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, who are both in the top 11 of Pro Football Focus‘s pass-rushing productivity rankings. That being said, the Rams haven’t gotten home very often in their rush, ranking in a tie for 29th with just four sacks on the year.
“Suh is explosive, powerful to get to the spot on the quarterback,” said Zimmer, “and then Donald is quick side-to-side and then uses power to get to it. Yeah, it makes it difficult.”
The Vikings offense looked its best in the second half against Green Bay in Week 2, and its worst in the first half last week against Buffalo. They’ll need to, at minimum, find a happy medium to have a chance against a defense that already has one shutout to its credit in Week 2 (34-0 versus Arizona).
MINNESOTA’S DEFENSE vs LOS ANGELES’ OFFENSE
The Vikings may have to get accustomed to life without Griffen for the foreseeable future, but Zimmer liked what he saw from Griffen’s replacement last Sunday. “Stephen Weatherly came in last week and I thought he played well,” Zimmer said. “I anticipate that he going to continue to play well. We’ll have to move some pieces around, obviously, but we’ve always tried to make this a team where we play, count on one another and play together.”
ALSO READ: Mike Zimmer Speaks About the Everson Griffen Situation
The Rams offense is churning on all cylinders. Excluding defensive and special teams touchdowns, the Rams have scored 26, 34 and 28 in their first three games. They totaled 521 yards and only punted once against the Los Angeles Chargers last week — frankly, the only thing that stopped them was self-inflicted wounds. Goff threw a red-zone interception, Todd Gurley fumbled, and Rodger Saffold nullified a huge play with a face mask penalty. Otherwise, they were unstoppable. Goff has only been sacked four times, and Pro Football Focus ranks the Rams as the league’s best pass-blocking unit.
Gurley is 20th in the league in yards per carry at 4.1, but he picks up yards that matter, notching a league-high 18 first downs on the ground. Goff has been the fifth-most accurate QB in the league so far with a 70.3 completion percentage. And the trio of Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp — which amassed 265 yards last week — is one of the league’s best.
But as we’ve written the past two weeks, the Vikings need to figure out what’s been ailing them against tight ends. They’ve had breakdowns in all three games, whether it’s been cornerbacks getting caught staring in the backfield or linebackers falling for play-actions or RPOs. Sean McVay has called for the second-most play-action attempts in football this year, so the Vikings will have to be ready.
BOTTOM LINE
Recency bias can play a huge factor in how we feel about a particular game, especially with small sample sizes. The Vikings’ collapse against Buffalo, combined with the Rams’ mastery against their first three opponents, combined with all the Thursday-related data we laid out earlier, makes this seem like a slam dunk for the Rams.
They are rightfully favored to win this game, but the NFL is reliably unpredictable. The Vikings will come to play in L.A. Thursday night and take this down to the wire. In the end, I’ll go with the team that is better equipped at the moment to deliver a big offensive drive when it needs it.
Rams 24, Vikings 21
Previous Predictions
Week 1: Vikings 21, 49ers 13 (Actual: Vikings 24, 49ers 16)
Week 2: Vikings 27, Packers 26 (Actual: Vikings 29, Packers 29)
Week 3: Vikings 27, Bills 13 (Actual: Bills 27, Vikings 6)
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