Monday night’s dispiriting loss to the Memphis Grizzlies looked a lot better in the standings after Tuesday night’s games for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
They could have been just one game from dropping out of the playoff positions with seven games to play, but find themselves still well-placed entering Wednesday’s game against Atlanta.
After the results of Tuesday night’s games, here are the Western Conference standings for the teams in seeds 4-10:
(Portland is comfortably in the driver’s seat for the No. 3 seed)
4. Oklahoma City 44-31
5. New Orleans 43-32 (-1.0)
6. San Antonio 43-32 (-1.0)
7. Utah 42-32 (-1.5)
8. Minnesota 42-33 (-2.0)
9. Los Angeles 40-34 (-3.5)
10. Denver 40-35 (-4.0)
And here are the remaining schedules for each of those seven teams, with games between the teams in bold.
| Game | Oklahoma City | New Orleans | San Antonio | Utah | Minnesota | Los Angeles | Denver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ SAS | @ CLE | @ WAS | BOS | ATL | @ PHX | @ OKC |
| 2 | DEN | OKC | OKC | MEM | @ DAL | @ POR | MIL |
| 3 | @ NOP | MEM | HOU | @ MIN | UTA | IND | IND |
| 4 | GSW | @ PHX | @ LAC | LAL | @ DEN | SAS | MIN |
| 5 | @ HOU | @ GSW | POR | LAC | @ LAL | @ UTA | @ LAC |
| 6 | @ MIA | @ LAC | SAC | @ LAL | MEM | DEN | POR |
| 7 | MEM | SAS | @ NOP | GSW | DEN | NOP | @ MIN |
| 8 | n/a | n/a | n/a | @ POR | n/a | LAL | n/a |
Are the Timberwolves safe to make the playoffs yet?
They haven’t clinched, but the schedule remains in their favor. The Wolves have one of the easier remaining schedules, and the Nuggets and Clippers are running out of breathing room.
To put it simply: if Minnesota beats Atlanta and Dallas and Denver loses to Oklahoma City and Milwaukee, the game at Pepsi Center on April 5 will be an elimination game for the Nuggets as far as the Wolves are concerned.
If the Wolves beat Utah and Denver loses to Indiana in addition to the above results, the Nuggets will be eliminated.
The Clippers pulled out a late win over Milwaukee on Tuesday night and are in a little better shape, but not by much. Los Angeles plays at Phoenix on a back-to-back on Wednesday night before difficult games at Portland on Friday and at home against Indiana on Sunday.
If Minnesota beats Atlanta and Dallas and Los Angeles beats Phoenix but loses to Portland, the Clippers would need four straight wins over direct rivals to stay alive after their Indiana game.
This is because the Clippers must finish with a better record than at least one non-Denver team; Los Angeles loses every other tiebreaker no matter the results of their upcoming games.
The Timberwolves must keep picking up wins, but Denver and Los Angeles both need serious help and have much more difficult schedules ahead.
Can the Timberwolves jump up to the No. 6 seed or higher?
Much of this question hinges on the results of Sunday’s game at Target Center against the Utah Jazz. If the Timberwolves can win this game and secure a 3-1 season series win over Utah as well as put themselves a game up on the Jazz, that would do wonders for their chances to climb.
This isn’t just because of Utah, who are obviously just the No. 7 seed at this point. The Timberwolves lost their season series against the San Antonio Spurs 2-1, but already have decisive tiebreakers clinched against New Orleans (4-0) and Oklahoma City (3-1).
This means that of the six possible three-way ties between these five teams that involve Minnesota, the Timberwolves have clinched the highest seed in four of those six tiebreakers, and would clinch the other two with a win over Utah — which breaks the Utah-San Antonio tie — and an Oklahoma City win over San Antonio on Thursday — a Spurs win gives them the top seed and Minnesota the second seed in that three-way tie.
The teams above Minnesota also have several matchups against each other, where Minnesota only has its closest rivals currently in Utah and Denver. The odds are good that the Wolves can pick up ground on at least one team above them if they secure wins.
If Oklahoma City goes on a run, New Orleans and San Antonio both by definition drop games. If the Pelicans and Spurs step up and beat the Thunder, the Thunder are dragged back down into the mess.
Nights like Tuesday, where many results favor Minnesota without them stepping on the court, will likely continue. Even on the final night of the season, the Wolves’ seeding could swing more on the result of the Spurs-Pelicans game in New Orleans than on their own game against Denver.
What if four teams are tied?
Minnesota has clinched two of those four possible tiebreakers. The winner of Wolves-Jazz clinches the one without Oklahoma City, and the Wolves clinch the one without New Orleans with either a win over Utah or an OKC loss to San Antonio.
If all five are tied, that’s even better for the Wolves, who are guaranteed the No. 4 seed in a five-way tie, regardless of the remaining head-to-head matchups between the five teams.
If you want to see all of the tiebreakers referenced above on a spreadsheet updated through Tuesday night’s games, here you go. The sheet will continue to be updated through the end of the season.
What does all of this mean?
If the Timberwolves can win the game against Utah and the games they should win, they have a great chance of finishing at or above the six seed.
The necessary caveat above is that Minnesota must win the games they should win, as they failed to do on Monday. They may make the playoffs regardless, but to move up, they must be better in games against tanking teams like Atlanta on Wednesday and Dallas on Friday. If they take care of business, they are in great shape.
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