Timberwolves

FAKLIS: Jimmy Butler Can Bring the Fun Back to the Timberwolves

Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

At this point in the season, Timberwolves fans are usually done.

The NBA regular season isn’t done this early in April, but before this year, a Wolves fan had no reason to care about the end result — other than draft position.

They’ve had the ability to root for players on other teams, fun stories in the other conference, or simply the thought of drafting a Karl-Anthony Towns-caliber player once summer hits. But winning? A playoff fight? It’s been a while.

This year, fans have reason to care. And that’s why this recent stretch has hurt so badly.

Thursday’s loss to the Denver Nuggets dropped the Timberwolves to the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference. After sitting in the top four for most of the season, that fact hurts. When factoring in the past two weeks, it hurts even more.

Now isn’t time to panic — they can still clinch the playoffs with a win to one of Los Angeles or Memphis, and a win over Denver in the season finale — but it’s getting scary. The playoffs are officially a question mark, and recent play isn’t helping.

In many ways, their loss to Denver was their best of the recent stretch. Their four previous matchups include a loss to Memphis, a single-digit win over Atlanta despite a 56-point outing from Towns, a one-point win over Dallas and a blowout loss to Utah.

With the exception of the blowout loss, every game in that stretch came against teams in tanking mode.

Though those games — the wins and the losses — were brutal, those teams “trying to lose” aren’t actually trying to lose. Not the players, anyway. Minnesota’s loss to the Grizzlies featured scrappy play from the Wolves, just to keep pace.

It’s a game the Timberwolves should have won by several points — the Grizzlies lost by over 60 points a few days prior to a non-playoff Hornets team — but the Grizzlies brought it.

But at this point in the season, the fact that the Wolves care might not be enough. Eye test “trying” isn’t good enough if you don’t execute. This is especially the case when considering where they were a few months ago.

When the Wolves were at their peak, they were a top-three offense and a top-10 defense. They beat good teams and had some dominant wins in there as an icing. They looked like a team that wasn’t just going to make the playoffs; they looked like they could win a series.

At the helm of it all was Jimmy Butler.

Maybe Butler is what they need to get the fans — and more importantly, the Timberwolves — going again.

And perhaps that’s obvious. Butler’s presence brought an immediate impact on the defensive end for his team, and his heroics offensively led them to some wins they wouldn’t otherwise have.

Butler has been a staunch defender of his team and his coach, both of whom have been under more scrutiny over the past few weeks than any other point this season. But while he was quick to defend the individuals, he’s been equally quick in his criticism of the collective on-court performance.

And while the eye test might suggest the Wolves sensed urgency, Butler’s on-court perfectionism saw otherwise.

“If we can’t go out and compete as hard as we can, if we don’t wake up for this type of game knowing what’s at stake, we’ve got bigger problems than just basketball,” Butler said Thursday night in Denver.

Butler nearly played that night. He was listed as active for the first time since his Feb. 23 knee injury in Houston. Ultimately, he didn’t play, and the Wolves fell by four points to a Denver Nuggets team actively trying to take their playoff spot.

With three games to go, that sort of vocal leadership is more important than ever. But Butler has been on the bench for the last handful of games, able to impart those words directly to his teammates. They’ve heard his message.

At this point, the message might not be enough. Butler’s greatest quality — along with Taj Gibson, to a less impactful extent — is his ability to back up every word he says with by-example backup on the floor.

Still, the Timberwolves defense wasn’t good when Butler was healthy despite his personal insistence of perfection on that end. Through the stretch before Butler’s torn meniscus (a stretch where Butler missed six games), the Wolves were 26th league-wide in defensive rating.

Since his injury, they’re 22nd, albeit with a worse defensive rating — teams have scored a lot more as the playoff push has gotten serious, thus higher offensive ratings for the good teams, and worse defensive ratings for the bad teams.

But as Britt Robson points out at The Athletic, the foursome of Butler, Towns, Gibson and Andrew Wiggins has been a formidable group defensively all season. The quartet makes up the second-most used four-man lineup on the team this year — subtract Butler, add Teague for the most-used — and according to NBA.com, it’s been effective.

Mar 18, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) and Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jimmy Butler (23) shake hands before the game at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

In fact, as Robson mentions, that group holds a 102.8 defensive rating when on the floor together. That’s a top-five defense when compared to the overall NBA rankings. In fact, the top 14 four-man lineups the Wolves have deployed this season hold defensive ratings under 108 points per 100 possessions.

In other words, the most-used lineups Thibodeau deploys play a top-20 level defense at worst.

But after that, it falls off hard. According to NBA.com, 14 of the next 15 most-used lineups play bottom-10 defense when compared to the rest of the league. Most of these lineups heavily feature members of the bench, and only two of them feature Butler at all.

But while the defense has stayed relatively the same over the last six weeks, the offense has dropped off.

The Timberwolves deployed the third-best offense in the NBA through Feb. 23, only behind the title-contending Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors. In the stretch he’s been out, they’ve dropped all the way to 11th, and have shaved nearly three points per 100 possessions off their total.

Weirdly enough, the Timberwolves have been a far better fourth quarter team in the stretch Butler has been out. They held a net rating of -5.4 — a bottom-three figure in the NBA — through Feb. 23. Since then, they’re a +5.7, good enough for a top-10 mark league-wide.

Several factors play into this, of course. The Wolves have seen some heroics from Towns on several occasions — his take-over against Golden State and his 56-point outburst come to mind. And before Butler went down, Thibodeau would often use him as the sole source of offense down the stretch of a close game.

At times, it worked (see the video above). Butler is an elite-level player capable of making shots most players simply don’t have the skill or the guts to take in the first place. But often times, “hero ball” got them into tougher situations.

Take the loss to Chicago on the road, for example. Butler may well have been especially hyped up to play his old team, but he also shot 2-of-9 in the fourth quarter and attempted six pull-up jumpers in that stretch.

To be clear, if anyone should be taking these shots, and has earned the right to do so, it’s Butler. He is by far the most reliable player on the team in clutch situations, and has made enough tough buckets to warrant some “bad looks”. But enough tough shots lead to the defense collapsing, knowing that he was going to look for his shot first. That can then lead to teammates being wide open.

Take this play against Chicago, where Butler drives and collapses the defense. This leaves Tyus Jones wide open at the top of the key. Butler might not have seen him, but either way, the play resulted in a contested 2-pointer.

[videopress Vuv00C6m]

But when stepping back out and looking at the big picture, some of this is nitpicking.

And with the uptick in success the Wolves have had since he went down, it’s possible that the team will adapt to what’s worked once he gets back.

But like any player, Butler has his faults. And like every team still fighting for a spot in the Western Conference playoffs, the Wolves still have their faults. The ultimate fact of the matter is the Wolves were 36-26 when Butler went down. They won 31 games all of last year, and anyone that watched the Timberwolves knows what he’s brought to the court and the locker room this season.

The defense is better with him on the floor. The offense has been in the top four all season. It’s fun to go to the Target Center and watch basketball, and Butler’s presence has been the biggest change in all of this.

It sounds like the Wolves might get him back on Friday night against the Lakers, if his suggestive Instagram post is any indicator. A report by Marc Stein of the New York Times all but confirms it.

The Lakers are an improved team, but aren’t playing for anything. Their fans will watch, but not for the same reason Wolves fans will tune in.

For the first time in over a decade, the Timberwolves are in a position to make the playoffs. And while those odds are in a scary position right now, Butler might be the key to getting them there.

The past few weeks have been tough for Wolves fans, but maybe Butler can give them that final push they need.


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