A Monday afternoon meeting between Tom Thibodeau and Jimmy Butler marked a “last-ditch” effort to salvage the relationship of Butler and the Minnesota Timberwolves franchise, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.
In Charania’s reporting, he consistently used the term “last-ditch” to describe the severity of Butler’s qualms that stem from “internal battles” that have led to a “butting of heads” behind the scenes in Minnesota — specifically naming Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins as players Butler is struggling with. The report even implies there is a possibility of a trade looming as the meeting presents an opportunity for both sides to “put all [their] cards on the table,” said Charania.
The timing of this is awful. The Wolves are seven days away from the beginning of training camp and the possibility of trading a superstar is not only unfortunate but the timing is rather unprecedented. The closest parallel to draw — in both timing and dysfunction — is the Kyrie Irving trade to Boston in the summer of 2017.
The difference here, with Butler, is that it is not summer. Typically, in the NBA, trades happen in February or July — around the trade deadline or during the free agency process. It was bizarre for Irving’s trade to materialize on Aug. 22, but an additional month adds a whole additional level of absurdity to this Minnesota situation.
Market Constraints Of A September Trade
To optimize a trade, the best practice would be to do so when a market has formed — again, often times in February or July when teams have rosters in flux, cap space, or simply have roster spots open to work with.
This is simple supply and demand stuff; the more teams in the trade market increases the theoretical return for a traded asset. It’s not as if Butler wouldn’t attract interest today; he is a star in his prime set to make a very reasonable $20.5 million in what will be the final year of his current contract.
However, the market for a player a week before training camp is likely as small as it will ever be due to the other rosters around the league already being filled out. If the San Antonio Spurs got pinched in the Kawhi Leonard trade, then Butler similarly demanding a trade now would put the Wolves in a vice grip.
This is disadvantageous not only to the Wolves but also to Butler.
Conceivably, if Butler wants out, he wants to be headed to a team that increases his odds of winning a championship. Butler is on the record countless times describing how winning trumps all else in his eyes and perhaps no quote is as illustrative of this as Butler’s quote from a Vice Sports interview with Michael Pina last summer:
“Some people are OK with getting drafted. Some people are OK with playing two years in the league, four years in the league, six years in the league. Some people are OK with just scoring a basket in an NBA game. I’m not OK with any of that. I’m not satisfied until I win a championship.”
If the rubber does meet the road and Butler does demand a trade sometime this week, he has done himself a great disservice in the pursuit of that championship. Again, not because Minnesota presents an excellent path to the promised land but because it is the middle of September and the championship contenders have formed rosters that limit their ability to operate in a trade market.
Sure, Houston has shown a propensity to become very creative when pursuing trades for stars and so has Boston. But would Daryl Morey or Danny Ainge willingly rock the boat of their franchises a week before the season starts? It’s not implausible but certainly not ideal timing from their perspective.
And that’s before you even consider the salary cap ramifications.
The Rockets currently sit $38.6 million over the salary cap and $9.9 million into the luxury tax. The Celtics are also $27.9 million over the cap and $3.9 million into the tax. Other enticing franchises that would pair Butler with another superstar like Milwaukee and New Orleans have hard-capped themselves this summer, greatly limiting the flexibility they have to add any talent — let alone a $20 million player, like Butler.
The Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs — attractive as future contenders for their respective reasons — are also both currently hard-capped. And the Los Angeles Lakers are reportedly pretty content waiting until next summer to pursue another big piece without having to sacrifice young assets in a trade.
There’s just not a ton of places to look for Butler.
It’s also a great risk for him to demand a trade. Thibodeau and the Wolves front office, in what would likely be a depressed trade market, would be wise to take the best offer available — even if that means sending Butler to a bad team. Yeah, Irving wound up in Boston when he demanded a trade, but hitting the demand button is jumping out of a helicopter without testing your parachute — you can wind up in Sacramento.
Which is to say, this makes little sense for both sides.
So, What’s Really Going On?
If taking the trade route is sub-optimal for both sides, then something else is happening in this meeting. Perhaps, this is, in fact, a last-ditch effort by Butler and his management team to try and cultivate some leverage.
Karl-Anthony Towns is sitting at home with a maximum contract extension in front of him that could allow him to earn up to $188 million through the 2023-24 season. With this, Towns holds all the leverage in being one signature away from being the driving force of all roster decisions in Minnesota for the foreseeable future. Butler is seven years Towns’ senior, so it’s possible he does not want this to be the case as it could imply a more gradual progression towards championship contention.
There was always going to be two windows when the Wolves moved for Butler but now those windows seem to be forging binary paths. Butler appears motivated to pursue any tactic that pushes the franchise toward the path that best fits him. What’s best for Butler — from Thibodeau being in charge to a more veteran-laden roster — is not necessarily best for Towns.
When the Wolves moved on from Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkannen in exchange for Butler and Justin Patton — another stroke of bad luck — there was a possibility that this would all go haywire due to purely financial constraints, even if we ignore personality battles.
Making the trade wasn’t a “bad move” by Thibodeau; Butler changed everything about the Wolves last season and Minnesota is relevant again because of the move. But by consistently doubling-down on moves that fit the Butler Path — Jeff Teague over Ricky Rubio/signing Taj Gibson/signing Derrick Rose/signing Luol Deng — rather than the Towns Path, the long view has not been given the attention Towns likely sees fit.
The 22-year-old Towns has every right to desire a roster and scheme that is most befitting to him.
Charania reported that Towns will not make a decision on his contract extension until after this meeting between Butler and Thibodeau happens. This all must be maddening for Thibodeau, who did everything he could to lock in as much power as possible by signing on to both coach and be the chief decision-maker of the Timberwolves in 2016. The reality, however, is that this remains a player-driven league.
With Towns a transcendent talent and the piece of the equation with the most financial leverage, really, he is in charge.
At the end of the day, while this is a contentious and confusing moment in Timberwolves history, Towns being the driving factor is a good thing. For the long, long-term health of the franchise, Towns is most important. Hopefully, this meeting explains that to Butler.
And optimistically, the hope is that Butler listens — realizing these business of basketball constraints are out of his control.
The deadline for Towns to sign his extension is Oct. 15, two days before the Wolves season kicks off in San Antonio.
So long as Towns signs that extension, all the butting of heads and internal battles in the world can’t derail what would still be a long-term positive trajectory for the Timberwolves franchise. The meeting may be a last-ditch effort to save Butler but the Wolves relevance does not lay in the balance of its resolution.
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