Timberwolves

MOORE: No One is Talking About Andrew Wiggins

Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

On Thursday evening, Tom Thibodeau gave a 16-minute press conference to answer any and all things postseason. The conversation covered a slew of topics; past playoff experiences, Derrick Rose’s emergence, Taj Gibson’s health, Jimmy Butler’s presence, and even a thorough breakdown of defending Clint Capela in the pick-and-roll.

But to my eyes and ears, there was a notable topic skipped: Andrew Wiggins.

Thibodeau spoke for an additional six minutes on Friday — after the team’s practice before he and the team jumped on a plane for Houston. This time, the topics stretched from defending the 3 to the value of the Rockets role players and there was even chatter about how bench rotations shift in the postseason. But again, nothing on Wigs. At this point, (for me) it became a game of “Will anyone talk about Andrew?”

Karl-Anthony Towns spoke for four minutes. No mention.

Six minutes from Taj Gibson, on an array of topics — zilch on Wiggins.

And finally, four minutes from Jeff Teague happened before the longest-tenured Wolf not named Gorgui came up. Andrew Wiggins, the player that has played the most minutes on the team for four years running, the player that has the sixth-most shot attempts in the NBA since 2014, and the player that just signed a $146.5 million contract extension had officially become an afterthought.

For him to not be a story at all prior to the first playoff game in Timberwolves history* felt like something. Almost a story inside of itself.

*It’s not the first playoff game in Timberwolves history, but feels like it is.

If you were dropped down from outer space and into Target Center this week and somehow knew a ton about basketball but nothing about individual players, you would think number 22 was nothing more than a bit role player.

Sure, his cool demeanor strolling around the practice court would catch the eye and you’d probably have some questions about his free throw shooting given the cavalcade of coaches who surrounded him when he’s there. But no, you wouldn’t think that guy is more than a blip of a variable in the greater equation of Wolves versus Rockets.

However, with the context of who Wiggins is, there are questions to be asked. Most notably: Why? Why does it feel like the former No. 1 overall pick is being ignored in the preamble to this series? And the answer is pretty simple: Wiggins has become a known commodity.

He is an uber-athlete with a propensity to disappear. On an average Tuesday night during the regular season, sure, he’s a guy that you want on your team but is rarely a game-changer. Wiggins is a tool equipped with a balletic spin move, an ability to put through a poster dunk, and has even grown to profile someone that shows spurts of defensive effort.

However, anyone who has watched more than a handful of Wolves games over the past four years knows all of this about him and is well-equipped themselves to sketch his shot chart as fast as they could put together a tic-tac-toe board.

There weren’t any questions or interjections this week at the Timberwolves’ facility about Wiggins because, well, what else is there to know? 23-year-old Wiggins seems to be known. He’s a character that profiles pretty similar to his 22- and 21-year-old self: Mediocre.

But sometimes, he flashes.

Popcorn Wiggins

About as often as a blue moon, Wiggins is dominant; truly a superstar. And when this happens, he raises not only his own game but transforms the Wolves from a puddle into a tsunami. When the tool belt is strapped and every weapon is powered on he’s an unguardable storm on the offensive end and a stalwart on the defensive side of the ball.

Unfortunately, those storms are predictable — and more demoralizing, they only come twice a year. Geographically they can be located along the latitude and longitude lines of Cleveland, Ohio — where Wiggins murders his kinda-sorta former team. When the ball has been tipped against Cleveland and a Cavs jersey squares him up, Wiggins has always gone off.

Points Per Game FG% 3P% TS% O-Rating USG%
Averages vs. Cleveland 27.9 54.6% 48.9% 64.7% 123 27.3%
Career Averages 19.7 44.7% 33.0% 52.6% 104 25.7%

 
This is because Wiggins is petty — and rightfully so. He ratchets up his game 58 notches for Cavs matchups, one notch for every day Cleveland gave him the runaround and left him in limbo after the 2014 NBA Draft. He appears to despise Cleveland in a way that is even more clear than the numbers indicate.

Which is all to say: He has another level.

Why does this matter? Because it is suggestive of the idea that when the lights are on so too is Andrew. With no lights brighter than those of the NBA playoffs, a wild card looms for the Wolves.

There is at least a possibility that Storm Andrew makes an appearance in the (up to) seven games of the next few weeks. Is it not possible that those lights will ignite his Cavalier vengeance? Is this not a story?

Then again, there is the sobering counter-argument to be made: Cleveland games are not the only big games Wiggins has ever played in.

Recently, there have been a number of meaningful games and Wiggins has almost unilaterally ignored the bell. Over the past two months, with Butler on the shelf, the Wolves needed Wiggins and the opportunity was ripe for the taking. He didn’t take it. He was largely the same.

Points Per Game Assists Per Game Rebounds Per Game eFG% TS% USG%
Pre-Butler Injury 17.5 1.7 4.2 48.0% 50.4% 23.2%
Post-Butler injury 18.2 2.6 4.8 48.2% 50.8% 23.2%

 
The lights were shining brightest on April 1 and April 3 — in what would be the final two games of Butler’s absence. In those games, the Wolves first played the Utah Jazz in what was billed as the franchise’s most important game of the past decade. During that game, Wiggins went missing early and often.

Two days later, the newest most important game of the year, Wiggins had perhaps one of his most deflating performances of his career against the Denver Nuggets — nine points on 4-of-12 shooting and was the worst of the starters posting a minus-13.

That Cleveland desire never showed up, crystallizing on the final Nuggets possession of the game where Nikola Jokic just dismissed Wiggins and tipped in the game-sealing bucket. The difference between Wiggins and Gibson’s box outs on that play is staggering.

[videopress HrXyaKto]

The Progression Of Wig

The knowledge of these past performances couldn’t help but cross the minds of Wolves fans when Wiggins was intentionally fouled in overtime of the season’s finale. He stepped to the line with the Wolves up by 3 after not having attempted a shot — field goal or free throw — in the previous 19 minutes and 25 seconds of gameplay. The question was very necessarily: What is his confidence level?

Butler even felt the need to give him a pep talk before allowing Wiggins to step to the stripe. All of these anxieties were warranted. Not only was Andrew in the midst of one of his disappearing acts, the free throw line has become the setting of one of those Wanna get away? Southwest Airlines commercials for Wiggins.

Free throws have been in his head all season.

Season Free Throw Percentage
2014-2015 76.0%
2015-2016 76.1%
2016-2017 76.0%
2017-2018 64.3%

 
At 64.3 percent, his free throw effectiveness is more in line with a seven-footer than a starting 2-guard. And the end of games — specifically fourth quarters — have been most troublesome, dropping to 61.3 percent.

But to his credit, Wiggins nailed both. And to the optimist, this is reason for hope. Through holistically improved confidence, there is a reason to believe in Wiggins’s game. Specifically, confidence in his free throws could unleash something that resembles those Versus Cleveland numbers.

After averaging 6.8 free throws per game the prior two seasons, Wiggins shot a mere 3.8 per game this season and it wasn’t because penetrating opportunities disappeared when Butler showed up.

In the two seasons prior to Butler’s arrival, Wiggins drove to the basket on average 696.5 times per season, according to Second Spectrum. This season, he still drove 627 times. The troubling difference is that he stopped drawing fouls.

Prior to this season, Wiggins drew these types of fouls at an elite rate for a wing. Typically, only big men draw fouls on more than 12 percent of their drives; Wiggins had done that every year of his career prior to this season. That number dropped to 9.4 percent this season.

Season Drives Fouls Drawn Fouls Drawn Percentage
2014-2015 424 64 15.1%
2015-2016 609 80 13.1%
2016-2017 784 97 12.4%
2017-2018 627 59 9.4%

 
If Wiggins can give up the grudge, there is reason to believe he can not only be a serviceable third option in the Wolves playoff arsenal but a weapon.

In the Rockets series, much will be made of James Harden’s ability to get to the free-throw line. Wiggins can be a counter to that on his end. A season ago, when Wiggins was aggressively driving and Harden was cooking, the Rockets guard only drew 18 more fouls than Wiggins on drives but did so on 605 more driving attempts, per Second Spectrum.

Now, part of this is because as good as Harden is at drawing contact, he is able to be elusive when the moment calls for it. Nonetheless, Wiggins getting to the line is not only an effective counter-measure to Harden but to the entire Houston juggernaut.

It is known that the Wolves can not match the Rockets’ 3-point output — they shot a league-low 26.1 percent of their shots from 3 while Houston shot a league-high 50.2 percent, per NBA.com/stats. However, they can use other measures like foul shooting to find a similar efficiency.

Even at Wiggins’ dismal 64.3 percent from the free throw line, a foul shooting possession renders 1.29 points per possession — the equivalent to a 42.9 percent 3-point attempt. No one in the Rockets rotation even shot 39 percent from 3 for the season.

The Wolves offense has been much maligned this season due to its grating aesthetic, but it definitively worked on a point per possession basis. Yes, the Rockets had the best offense in the league scoring 1.12 points per possession, according to NBA.com/stats, but the Wolves were not far behind — fourth in the league while scoring 1.11 points per possession.

The Wolves find efficiency in an almost inverted way to Houston, but they do find it. More of their grinding for isolated lay-ups will come in the playoffs and if they are able to maintain their 17.7 percent free throw rate (second-best in the league) they will continue to find efficiency. If Andrew Wiggins gets into that mix, all of those numbers will grow and — as crazy as it sounds — the Wolves could, in theory, compete with Houston.

Stopping Settling

One of the games with the brightest lights of the season was in early March when the Wolves were playing the defending champion Golden State Warriors on national television. It was one of Wiggins’ best games of the season. He scored 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting and delivered a team-high plus-21 when on the floor.

After that game, Jeff Teague spoke to the relief that followed the performance.

“We told him to quit settling, man, and get to the basket. He’s one of the best athletes in the NBA.”

Wiggins concurred.

“I had my mind set on not settling for jump shots unless it’s there and just driving to the rim,” he said. “I settle sometimes. I love my shot.”

Against Houston, that can’t happen and oddly enough the Rockets might not allow it. On Friday, Teague said his squad is going to “have to play a lot faster” to keep up with the Rockets. “They switch so much that they kinda want you to post the ball so they can trap.”

The pre-playoff Wiggins silence was broken here.

“This is a perfect game for Wig, he can attack,” said Teague. “They switch and put smaller guys on him at times, so I expect him to have a big series.”

A big series from Wiggins really is the only way the Wolves can compete. If they trot out the same group with the same style of play as they did in the regular season meetings against the Rockets, the result will almost assuredly be the same — a beating.

Put out something new, bring out a new weapon and the Wolves have a shot. The only option for that weapon is Wiggins. He is the team’s only player that hints at the possibility of being markedly better than their regular season self. Seven games of tuned in, invisibility cloak-less Wiggins is out there.

If he is found, it will be the story of this Wolves-Rockets series.


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