It was a run of 15 games bookended by wins against the Portland Trail Blazers on Dec. 18 and Jan. 14 that marked the Minnesota Timberwolves best run of the season. In those 28 days, the Wolves had the best record in the NBA (12-3), the best offensive rating in the league (114.3), and also the league’s fifth-best defense (103.9).
It was all working.
Naturally, this inspired a Zach Lowe podcast. Also naturally, Lowe’s guest was the invaluable Jim Petersen, who provides color commentary for the Timberwolves on Fox Sports North broadcasts.
The podcast was largely an outpouring of compliments on the Wolves while also asking the question of: Is this sustainable? However, what has stuck with me from that podcast is nothing that pertained to Lowe and Petersen’s commentary about the Wolves streak but instead one big picture question Lowe offered.
“Is Thibs knowable?”
The phrasing of the question was such that it felt like Lowe already knew the answer. However, he still felt the need to ask because, well, if he was knowable to someone in the media it would be Petersen; a 20-year analyst for the Wolves and also a former pro who played eight years in the NBA in the late 80s and early 90s.
The response went about as expected. Petersen heaped praise on Tom Thibodeau — going so far as calling him “a basketball savant” — but largely his answer was no.
“Thibs sequesters himself a lot,” said Petersen. “I just don’t see him.”
Thibodeau In The Public Space
For those who follow the team closely and perhaps more so for those who cover the team, this response from Petersen — or “Jim Pete” as he is more fondly referred to in Minnesota — was no surprise.
It is well-known by now that Thibodeau is the type of coach who keeps the inner-workings of his craft to himself. While the Wolves head coach graciously grants the media access before games, after games and after practices on off days — doing so in a cordial manner that is nothing like Greg Popovich in San Antonio — there is almost always a feeling after the interviews are conducted that Thibodeau did not fully assert his true thoughts. He is guarded.
Monday afternoon’s end of season press conference was no different.
The thrust of the message put forth by Thibodeau, the team’s chief decision-maker on the floor and in the front office, was clear: Accentuate the positives while brushing over the weak spots.
This was most clear when Thibodeau was asked about the effectiveness of his bench this season and if staggering his starters could help cover up some of the bench’s folly in the future.
“Well, we did. We staggered the starters this year. I think the important thing is to play well and you need everyone to play well,” said Thibodeau “And so I thought our bench did a good job for us this year.”
The truth of these statements lies in the eye of the beholder.
In ways, this is true. For example, Karl-Anthony Towns was almost unilaterally the first player to sub out in the first quarter and third quarter of games for the Wolves this season. This happened not because Towns was the first to get tired but because it was a rotational tactic that allowed Towns to start the second and fourth quarter of games — when Jimmy Butler would first sub out each half.
So, yes, that is a definitive stagger of the team’s two best players.
But there is an element of the response that is guarded — again, ignoring the flaw. Also definitively, Thibodeau was less inclined to play his bench with the starters than any other coach in the league. His starters, as a group, played together more than any other five-man grouping on any team this season.
According to NBA.com’s lineup tracking data, the Wolves starting lineup played 1131 minutes together. At this total, the Wolves nearly doubled the Philadelphia 76ers starters who deployed the 6th-most active five-man unit in the NBA — playing 600 minutes together in 49 total games.
| Team | Players | Games Played | Total Minutes |
| Timberwolves | Teague, Wiggins, Butler, Gibson, Towns | 48 | 1131 |
| Hornets | Walker, Batum, Kidd-Gilchrist, Williams, Howard | 56 | 1086 |
| Raptors | Lowry, DeRozan, Anunoby, Ibaka, Valanciunas | 54 | 801 |
| Pacers | Collison, Oladipo, Bogdanovic, Young, Turner | 44 | 696 |
| Bucks | Bledsoe, Middleton, Snell, Antetokounmpo, Henson | 45 | 605 |
| Sixers | Simmons, Redick, Covington, Saric, Embiid | 49 | 600 |
Thibodeau’s “we did stagger the starters” quip was not the only grey portion of that response. Asserting that the “bench did a good job for us” is also both true and untrue.
The truth in the response is the notion that a few of the Wolves’ bench players played well this season.
- Tyus Jones gave the Wolves a major boost when he played in Jeff Teague’s place throughout the season. The lineup of the other four starters with Jones in place of Teague possessed the NBA’s best net-rating of the 35 five-man lineups who compiled more than 250 total minutes in the NBA this season, per NBA.com/stats.
- Nemanja Bjelica was also, at times, a boon. Bjelly did not miss a beat when his minutes were more than doubled in the 21 games he started this season. Particularly down the stretch run of the season, when starting in Butler’s place, Bjelica’s shooting (41.6 percent from 3), rebounding (6.8 rebounds per game) and ability to create off the dribble (2.1 assists per game) were all critical elements to what nudged the Wolves over the edge and into the playoffs.
- Derrick Rose was also a crucial role player in the Wolves’ five-game playoff set against the Rockets. His energy and effectiveness in multiple roles were one of the brightest spots in these now departed playoffs. Rose made more than half of his total field goal attempts in the series — including an almost unbelievable seven makes on ten attempts from 3 — on his way to averaging 14.2 points per game in the series.
But in the aggregate — the big picture — Minnesota’s bench was an objective weak point for a playoff-caliber team. On a near nightly basis, the bench was a net-negative; backed up statistically by the fact that, only the Milwaukee Bucks were a playoff team with a worse net-rating from their bench than the Wolves.
At the press conference, Thibodeau went on to articulate how the team made adjustments to better incorporate bench players. He lauded the play of Jones and Rose when they were able to shift in with the starters in the times Jimmy Butler shifted up to playing the power forward position.
“Particularly when Jimmy did come back (we saw) his versatility, his ability to play the four and I liked how that group played a lot,” said Thibodeau. “I liked having the multiple point guards on the floor together. So I think that that’s something that you’re looking for versatility and I think we have that.”
In these words lies another interesting juxtaposition. The Wolves did play well with Butler at the four in the playoffs. By sliding Taj Gibson into a smaller role against Houston and Rose in his place, the Wolves best groups were found. The 75 minutes Butler and Rose played together provided the best two-man lineup of any pairing on the team, per NBA.com’s lineup tracking data.
The other side of this coin is that these lineups were almost never used during the regular season. Butler and Towns shared the floor as the power forward and center for a mere 96 minutes during the regular season. Given the success of the lineup in the playoffs — that Thibs is willing to take credit for — this is also an indictment of his lineup management during the regular season.
Again, an accentuation of the positives but a brushing away of the weak spots.
Which is okay. Coaches don’t need to be perfect. Even the very best coaches have opportunities that they miss. The difference with Thibodeau is his steadfast public stance that what he is implementing is unilaterally correct.
Thibodeau Amongst His Players
Also at Monday’s press conference, Thibodeau was asked how he responds to the fanbases and the talking heads public critiques of coaching. In jest, Thibodeau laughed, “I have critics?”
Regaining his serious demeanor, Thibodeau responded to the question, “I’ve never concerned myself with the critics. I feel I’m gonna study the team harder than anyone else, so I’m gonna have a better understanding of the team also.”
This is also likely true but does come with a foible.
Even amongst Thibodeau’s biggest naysayers, few question his dedication to the craft. He has earned the reputation of a tireless worker. Amidst that late-December through early-January stretch, Jamal Crawford — who has played for 18 different coaches in his NBA career — posited that he felt that this team was “more prepared” for the opponent than any other team he has played for. This was heavy praise directed towards Thibodeau.
However, as the season wore on and the results faded, so did some of the embracings of Thibodeau.
Most notable were comments from Teague after Game 1 of the series against the Rockets that directly contradicted the strategy perspective that Thibodeau had shared with the media.
When asked about what his team needs to do to find success against the Rockets switch-heavy defensive attack, Thibodeau said, “you gotta try and attack and take advantage. I thought the way Jeff attacked the switches was great. They’re making decisions on what they think they have to do and then, now, you have the speed advantage. A guy like Teague is very good at attacking bigs off the dribble.”
When Teague was asked if this was the right move he responded directly in contradiction of his coach’s belief.
“No. I think that is playing into their hands of trying to eliminate KAT.”
Teague went on to disagree with how Thibodeau wanted to space the floor and the pace in which the team was playing at. A pace that Thibodeau was openly pleased with. (I covered all of Teague and Thibodeau’s contradictions here.)
At the end of the day, the way Thibodeau articulates his craft to the media — and thus the fanbase — is not of crucial importance. What is critical is his ability to articulate schematic concepts to his players that lead to growth.
The Teague comments are one situation, we do not know — or have substantial evidence to know — that there is any sort of consistent disconnect between what is coming out of Thibodeau’s mouth and what is being heard by his players. However, what we do have is 164 games of a track record in the Thibodeau-era. In that time, the evidence we do have is in a lack of development in certain areas and amongst certain players.
Most notably, the defense has only improved marginally from 28th in the league under Sam Mitchell in 2015-16 to where it is now under Tom Thibodeau, 27th in the league according to basketball-reference.com’s defensive rating data. To a degree that is difficult to define, this is in part due to a disconnect between what Thibodeau is telling his players to do and what they are actually going out and performing.
Additionally, we only have nominal improvements from the players that are still on the team but were also once coached by Mitchell. Reading the body language of those players — Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, Bjelica, and Towns — there is not the same unified belief in Thibs as his truthers (Butler, Gibson, and Rose) have. It’s hard to tell if the younger players find Thibs to be as knowable as the older crew does.
I have an image burnt into my head that sums up the dynamic as I have subjectively perceived it. Following Towns’ dismal Game 1 performance against the Rockets, he was being hurled a litany of questions about what he can do to make sure his muted performance did not happen again. As Towns was squirming and pounding the rock of “following the gameplan” for his explanation, Thibs was 15 yards away chopping it up and high-fiving with Taj Gibson.
The moment encapsulated a percolating belief amongst those who follow the team: Thibs has a stronger connection with the players who have known him longer.
On one hand, it is only natural that Thibs is more knowable to Gibson, who he has coached for six years. On the other hand, it has been two full years that Thibodeau has been molding Towns and Wiggins. Through that truth, is a growing concern that the younger players on the team — the tentpoles of the future — do not appear to have the same connection.
It is fine that Thibodeau sequesters himself to focus on the elements of the game that make him a savant but there is another element to the head coaching game: articulating concepts. For Thibodeau, in Year 3 and beyond, his focus may need to shift. He may need to look himself in the mirror and ask ‘what are those weaknesses?’
Addressing what didn’t go well this season is crucial in constructing something that can be better. For Tom Thibodeau, that may require stepping out of his comfort zone in an effort to allow himself to be known.
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