It has been over 5,000 days since the Minnesota Timberwolves last played in a playoff game, which justifies getting into the weeds a bit. Here are three important subplots to the Wolves-Raptors series that could make a discernable difference.
Who is going to play?
The Wolves (finally) got back to full strength for the last three games of the season. However, given Jimmy Butler’s minute restriction upon return and Taj Gibson’s neck injury, only the finale can be used to inform which players are in the good graces (read as: in the rotation) of Tom Thibodeau.
In that game against Denver, only the starters played in the overtime (except for Jamal Crawford who played three seconds), meaning the box score can be seen as true in its suggestion.
Bench Minutes In Season Finale
| Player | Minutes Played |
| Jamal Crawford | 17:34 |
| Derrick Rose | 11:23 |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 10:54 |
| Tyus Jones | 10:13 |
| Gorgui Dieng | 6:06 |
For all five players, this total was below their season average of playing time and more of that same limitation should be expected. Playoff basketball unilaterally leads to heavier minutes for starters and thus shorter stints for bench contributors, however, it does not necessarily mean anyone will be left out of the rotation.
In spite of Thibodeau’s reputation for a reliance on his starters, his playoff track record does not indicate that his rotations shrink in the playoffs — when measured by total players played. In Chicago, Thibs’s playoff rotations fluctuated from eight to 11 players in non-garbage time minutes. The rotations broadly stayed the same as they were in the season with the main adjustment being shorter shifts for his bench.
Take Gibson, who came off the bench during his time under Thibodeau in Chicago. For example, in the duo’s final season together in Chicago (2014-15), Gibson played 27.3 minutes per game during the regular season but only 23.0 per game in twelve postseason games.
When asked about the rotation at Friday’s practice, Gibson suggested this could again be the case for Thibs’s new bench.
“I think we can go 10 deep,” said Gibson. “When you go out there how many minutes you play — maybe one minute, maybe a couple seconds — if you go out there and do a good job (Thibs) will believe in you and have the confidence in you.”
“I feel like that last game against Denver was kind of like a playoff game because you could sense how everybody was so eager to get in there and do one single play, one little job that could help the team.”
Thibodeau did say that rotations usually “go down” in the playoffs, but did not give any specifics.
Whatever the rotation will be, the bench will play a crucial role in this series because it was such an area of concern during the regular season. With an aggregated Net Rating of minus-3.4, the Wolves had the second-worst regular season bench production of any team that qualified for the playoffs, per NBA.com/stats.
Crucially, a keen eye should be held to Jamal Crawford who was a staple of many bad bench units this year. His negative impact is most felt on the defensive end where he tallied a defensive rating of 112.9 — the worst defensive rating of any player in the playoffs who played 15 minutes per game in the regular season.
The Corner 3
Continuing with defense, the pick-and-roll is, of course, an area of concern for the Wolves against a Rockets team that dumped 1.3 points per possession in the two team’s four regular season meetings.
Naturally, when thinking of that Houston ball-screen action, James Harden and Chris Paul come to mind. The next thought is probably Clint Capela who used PnR actions to land the league’s best effective field goal percentage (65.2 percent). A name that probably doesn’t come to mind is P.J. Tucker. Particularly against the Wolves, who struggle mightily to defend the corners of the floor, Tucker could be a problem.
Tucker, the 32-year-old who looks to be more middle linebacker than shooter, led the NBA in made corner 3s (83). How the Wolves defend Tucker and the rest of the Rockets’ cavalcade of shooters in the corner will be a huge factor in the series.
The Wolves have one of two options to take before the ball is kicked to the corner
1. Hard Stunt
[videopress t5JbmF9n]Here, Butler fully commits to not allowing Jokic to hurt the Wolves with a jumper or floater. Jokic notices Butler’s man wide open in the corner and peppers him for a lightly contested 3. While Capela is nowhere near the passer of Jokic, the Rockets have an array of other players who will also set the initial screen in the PnR. Unless the hard stunt renders a steal, the Rockets’ bigs will likely pepper the corner if the Wolves bring this counter to the Houston attack.
2. Fake Stunt
[videopress nZl15pX0]Here, Rose does not stunt. At this point of the possession, the Wolves are battling uphill — Teague and Towns have already allowed a simple pocket pass be dropped to Paul Millsap. Becuase of this, Rose is left with doing the quick math of a Millsap mid-ranger versus a Gary Harris 3.
Correctly, Rose chooses to stay with Harris (who shot 39.6 percent from 3 this season). The difference with Houston is that Capela will roll all the way to the rim for a lob; forcing Rose to stunt. At this point, when the Wolves have already lost at the point of attack (Teague and Towns), and thus be crossing their fingers that the Rockets shoot worse than their season average of 39.7 percent on corner 3s.
On the other side of the ball, the Wolves would do well to utilize the corners themselves. For the season, Minnesota also shot a formidable 39.8 percent from the same spot. The hope is that the Wolves increase their volume from this range. For the season, they only took 5.4 corner 3s per game — 23rd in the league when measured per 100 possessions, per NBA.com.
This is an area the Wolves could tweak Nemanja Bjelica’s role to perhaps becomes an X-factor. Bjeli shot a career-high 42 percent from 3 this season (up from 32 percent a season ago) but only 47 of his 183 3s came from the corner. When Bjelica is playing power forward (a spot he will likely play more often due to the Rockets miniature frontcourt), he could shift back from the dunker spot and into the corner — Gorgui Dieng does this a ton.
End of Shot Clock Play
For anyone who has watched a Timberwolves broadcast with the sound on this season, they know that “GREEN” is the new “ICE”. After listening to a season of Thibodeau billowing ICE on every Wolves defensive possession, the new cool call is GREEN — this time coming from Wolves assistant coach, Andy Greer.
GREEN is announced — and by announced, I mean screamed — every time the shot clock hits five seconds on a Wolves offensive possession. Quite literally, it means whoever has the ball has the green light to shoot.
Over ten percent of the Wolves’ total possessions winded down to the final four seconds of the shot clock, according to Second Spectrum’s tracking data. Only the Memphis Grizzlies took more shots “very late” in the shot clock.
Generally, this type of forced shot is ineffective but a few Wolves have found been efficient in these situations.
Late Shot Clock Shooting
| Player | Effective Field Goal % | Total Attempts |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 61.5% | 74 |
| Jeff Teague | 50.0% | 89 |
| Taj Gibson | 47.6% | 62 |
| Jimmy Butler | 39.8% | 133 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 38.1% | 109 |
| Jamal Crawford | 33.8% | 111 |
Finding Towns in here could be a difference maker — no player who attempted 50 such shots has been more effective with four or fewer seconds on the shot clock, per NBA.com/stats.
Conversely, getting the ball out of Crawford’s hands in these scenarios would be a windfall. To some extent, this isn’t totally his fault. Crawford has played much of the season as the only competent player on the floor — a big reason for the abysmal Net Rating of the Wolves bench. Optimistically, the limiting of bench minutes could decrease Crawford’s volume here.
The question is: Will he pass?
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