One of the points of contention for Minnesota Twins fans between the 2016 and 2017 seasons was the growth of Max Kepler.
Or perhaps, the lack thereof. His seasons were almost carbon copies of each other, with the exception of him getting into 34 more games.
- 2016 – .235/.309/.424, 93 wRC+
- 2017 – .243/.312/.425, 92 wRC+
On the surface, that seems to be the case this year again, as Kepler is hitting .225/.316/.403 (95 wRC+) in his age-25 season. That’s a wholly average slash line — perhaps a fair amount under when adjusted for the position he plays — and it’d be easy to see fans becoming discontent with his supposed stagnancy at the plate.
But the underlying statistics suggest otherwise. He’s making progress, even if it’s been slow to show up in his overall line.
One thing he’s done is cut down on his swinging strikes. His career rate is 8.4 percent, and this year it’s just 7.3 percent — his best mark to date. He’s also chasing pitches out of the zone less frequently than ever before in his career — a 27.5 percent rate as compared to a career mark of 30.3 percent.
He’s above his career rate in swinging at pitches in the zone and in contact in the zone, and he’s making more contact (83.5 percent) than ever before in his career.
Then there are his splits against lefties.
Lefties have long been Kepler’s bugaboo, but oddly enough there was reason to believe he’d eventually figure them out.
Consider:
- 2012 Elizabethton (Rookie) – .286/.419/.371 in 43 PA v. LHP*
- 2013 Cedar Rapids (Low-A) and Glendale (AFL) – .117/.232/.133
- 2014 Fort Myers (High-A) and Salt River (AFL) – .273/.301/.390
- 2015 Fort Myers, Chattanooga (Double-A) and MLB – .319/.390/.437
- 2016 Rochester (Triple-A) and MLB – .231/.299/.381
- 2017 MLB – .152/.213/.240
- 2018 MLB – .288/.360/.576
* Kepler was repeating a level this year
The year I want to focus on is 2015, when he was Southern League MVP over Milwaukee top prospect Orlando Arcia. Double-A is a breeding ground for top prospects — where the men are separated from the boys — and I feel like oftentimes what a player does there is at least possible in the big leagues. It doesn’t mean it’ll be immediate and it’s far from guaranteed, but anytime you’re being tested by the best talent in your age bracket, that seems to be a good indicator.
And Kepler dominated lefties that year. That came just two years after he was absolutely dreadful against them in 2013 — two levels lower, to boot — which to me indicates progress for him can be a bit of a slow burn. And that makes a lot of sense. Kepler was extremely raw when he signed as a 16-year-old outfielder out of Germany, so it’s no surprise he’s needed time to acclimate to the intricacies of the American game.
Well, maybe not the American part of it as much as coming to America to play it as a profession.
But that’s where my hope was rooted in the idea that Kepler would eventually hit lefties, and so far it has taken hold.
Manager Paul Molitor said he feels Kepler has gotten better at identifying offspeed pitches, both in terms of pitch type but also if they’re in hittable zones or not.
“I think going up there and making a point to find a way to be more successful than he was last year,” Molitor said. “I think we saw early in the year, he was really trying to stay in there. I think he’s gotten better at recognizing offspeed pitches in particular, and where they have to start to be strikes. I think he’s learned how to use the whole field a little bit better too. When they make a mistake — especially offspeed — he’s been able to hit them with authority.”
Kepler doesn’t really feel like it’s a specific pitch he’s made progress on, at least not in terms of pitch type. He’s laying off pitcher’s pitches, instead.
“It’s laying off their pitches; the waste pitches, being patient and getting my pitch,” Kepler said. “I feel like in the beginning (of the season), it was more clear to me. Then they made an adjustment to that, and they flipped the whole pitching thing. Like, they throw backward now, so I have to adjust to that.”
Kepler says he hasn’t really changed too much in terms of his work to improve against lefties. “Not really,” Kepler said prior to batting practice on Tuesday. “Just doing some angle drills in the cage. That’s about it.”
Angle drills? Explain yourself, Mr. Kepler.
“(You) just set up the screen like a lefty would be throwing at you from kind of behind you,” he said. “That way you train your vision to have your sights catch the ball earlier than if you just do it straight on. You do the same approach and load, but your head may turn a little bit so you can catch the ball behind you.”
Hitting coach James Rowson goes a bit further into detail.
“The angle drills are more set off to the angles where a left-handed pitcher will come from left on left to you,” Rowson explained. “So you try to exaggerate it a little bit to get comfortable with more exaggerated angles so the angle you see in the game isn’t quite as steep. So a lot of times we’ll get a little further off to the left-hand side. It also gets you trying not to buy into the angles, and not trying to go with the angles as a hitter but still focusing on getting your bat head squared up as the ball goes away from you. You’re trying to basically cut those angles off to hit the ball squarely but keep it fair. You don’t necessarily want to buy into them, because then you’re arching your swing.
“He’s done a really nice job since spring training. We’ve been on this drill and been consistent with him pretty much throughout the year. I think that allows him to see the ball come from that angle and not try to do too much, or not to try to take his body off the ball, but just try to stay square really well against lefties.”
Of course, if Kepler is hitting lefties and his overall line is lagging, that means he’s not meeting expectations elsewhere. And of course, that has come in his line against righties, which is a meager .200/.299/.335.
That’s a little less worrisome to Rowson because of Kepler’s penchant for hitting righties over his career. In nearly 330 career games, Kepler has hit .249/.327/.446 against righties — and remember, that’s at least somewhat dampened by this year’s numbers.
For his career, he’s hit .200/.267/.342 against lefties.
Another place Kepler has improved has been hitting the ball on the ground less frequently. That’s a career-long trend for Kepler who is down to 0.87 groundballs per fly ball against a career rate of 1.1.
Kepler takes a very simplistic approach to why he feels that is. “Pitchers are throwing up more to me,” he said. “I guess it’s the result of that. I just hit it where it’s at.”
The explanation for why that’s good is pretty simple — extra-base hits almost exclusively come through the air. It has led to a career-high fly ball rate (45.4 percent) without spiking his popup rate too much (0.3 percent lower than last year), and according to Fangraphs, his hard-hit rate is a career-best 38.3 percent.
“I think what you see with Max, more than anything, is that as his contact points are consistent and he catches the ball at the right point and gets through baseballs, balls get in the air,” Rowson explained. “It’s not necessarily the thought of trying to get them in the air; it’s really the thought trying to hit the ball hard. That’s what he tries to do. I think his balls get in the air because he’s got a more consistent contact point when he’s going well. He catches the ball out in front. He stays through balls, and can get them up to spin a little bit.”
All of this should add up to good results, right? Well not yet, but the Twins aren’t losing the faith. Rowson still believes in Kepler’s growth despite the relative stability in his numbers over the last three years. Especially in light of his drastic improvement against lefties.
“I look at the growth of the student, in all honesty, because like I told you before, I don’t think there’s any substitute for experience,” Rowson said. “You know what I mean? Getting in the box and facing as many guys so the more lefties he sees this year after last year, I think he’s able to grow and make his adjustments as time goes on. You kind of learn that those angles might be getting to you, so you want to adjust your work a little bit more to create a few more drastic angles. You learn what it feels like when your contact points are maybe a bit deeper. Or if you get too far out in front, and you get into rolling over the ball, you start finding the area where you can put the ball in the air the right way.
“So I think you start seeing more balls get in the air and a lot of positive things happening simply because experience is teaching you and you’re learning from how you’re feeling,” Rowson continued. “It’s important that he and I communicate throughout this to always talk about how he’s feeling. ‘Do you feel they’re getting a little deep on you?’ ‘Yeah.’ Then all the sudden we see a lot more groundballs. So now the balls are getting a little deeper, so let’s get those contact points where we need to. So it’s kind of a feel, but also using the numbers to learn what the feeling is creating and working from that point.”
So how quickly should these changes take hold? Is there a magic number where Rowson and Kepler might start tweaking to see results more quickly?
“You know what’s tough about that is the growth in the game,” Rowson said. “So we’ve learned that batting average is not necessarily the number is what we thought it was going to be for the last 20 years or so. It was kind of what we looked at. There are other indicators now that give us a better feel for how the hitter is going. The tough part is that we have to make sure as hitters that we stay in that zone, knowing that we’re doing the right things and we’re waiting for that spell to come and not be discouraged if the batting average isn’t where we want it to be.
“Because over time, if we continue to hit balls hard and at the right trajectory, we kind of see at the end of the year, hopefully those things will even themselves out and we will finish where we want to finish overall. The tough part is reminding yourself that you are doing the right things, and looking at different indicators as success instead of just batting average.”
Kepler is a student of the game and a disciple of hitting. Rowson said he simply loves to hit.
“He’s really a good student,” Rowson said. “I call him a student of hitting because he loves to hit. He enjoys it. He really works off feel. So I think it’s very important with him that it’s a constant conversation of how he’s feeling. It’s my job at that point to take those feelings and see what those feelings are creating on paper obviously, and what it looks like in the game.
“He’s done such a great job from last year to this year, and I think we’re just waiting for that one burst to come,” Rowson said of what he hopes is an impending hot streak. “He started off the year and that burst was there, so we want the next one so he can see it numerically along with what he’s been doing. When you go through the tough spell, it’s not as tough as you think it is, but it’s tougher if you continue to grade it by batting average. So I think it’s key to get off that scale.”
So how can Rowson keep Kepler from regressing against lefties while waiting for him to get back to who he’s been against righties?
Simply put, they’ve just made all of this part of his regular routine.
“It’s just part of his routine now,” Rowson said. “We do angles from both sides. We’ll do some from the lefties but also go to the other side. It’s become part of his every-day routine that he does that and has a feel for how to cut balls off. When we do them from the far-right side, that helps him to deal with those right-handed cutters that might be making that move. At the same time, it’s worked for some left-handed stuff, but we do it from both sides to keep it normal.”
Ultimately, Rowson has complete confidence that Kepler can hit pitching from both sides.
“I think it’s a matter of both — small sample size, but also trust he’ll get back to who he’s been against righties — because I think you do have to constantly get sample sizes that you’re looking for where you can make an educated opinion on the topic,” Rowson said when asked if Kepler’s marks against righties are a big enough sample to draw much from. “But I do feel like, against right-handers, there are no worries for me. I know he’s capable of hitting them; he’s done it his whole career. It’s just a matter of getting that feel of hitting one or two balls really hard that land for you against those righties, and all the sudden you see it going.
“There’s still that human element of the game, and that’s what that is. It’s kind of the emotional side of it, where you see that ball fall. Once you see one or two fall, you start buying more into what you’re doing, because you saw some success. Believe it or not, as we’ve seen in this game, sometimes the ones that fall are the ones you don’t hit the hardest. Yet they give you the confidence to kind of keep doing what you’re doing, and you see those fall.”
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