Starting with last year’s Divisional Round playoff game against the New Orleans Saints, a trend began developing that has leaked into the Minnesota Vikings’ 2018 regular season.
That day, the Saints converted 15 first downs out of 25 second-down plays and ended up scoring 24 points in the second half before losing on Stefon Diggs’ 61-yard miracle touchdown. Since then, opponents have remained very successful on second down, reducing the effectiveness of Minnesota’s still-stifling third-down defense.
The Vikings defense is down across the board, falling to 23rd in pass defense after last week’s loss at Los Angeles, but the starkest difference shows up on second down, where teams are averaging 2.2 yards per play better than they did last year.
“First downs are more of a feeler on whether the offense can run the ball on us or not, and they have started to hit on second downs,” said defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson. “It’s definitely noticed.”
Richardson wasn’t with the Vikings a year ago, but he has no doubt been told how Minnesota had the league’s best scoring defense and third-down defense. Perhaps he was also told that the Vikings had one of the stingiest second-down defenses, allowing just 4.61 yards per play, the second-lowest total in the NFL. Opponents carried the ball at 3.8 yards per attempt and passed the ball at a minuscule 5.3 yards per attempt on second down.
This year, the rush defense on second down is just as good — better, in fact — giving up just 3.2 yards per carry. It’s the pass where the Vikings have given up ground: 10.9 yards per attempt, more than double where it was last season. And teams aren’t passing more frequently — just more successfully.
Opposing quarterbacks are 29 of 45 for 492 yards, four touchdowns, 20 first-down conversions and one interception when passing on second-down this season. Rams quarterback Jared Goff exploited the Vikings the most last Thursday, completing eight second-down passes for double-digit yardage, including a 70-yard touchdown to Cooper Kupp. All eight of those completions came on a play-action fake.
Head coach Mike Zimmer spread the defensive blame around after his defense allowed Goff to pass for over 400 yards.
“It was some misdirection plays, similar to what we’ve gotten before,” Zimmer said. “Some of it was corners, some of it was safeties, some of it was linebackers, some of it was nickels, some of it was me.”
Opponents have compiled 16 pass completions for double-digit yards on second down through four games this season. Believe it or not, these problems aren’t totally unfamiliar. Through four games a year ago, the Vikings allowed 18 such plays before locking things down and allowing just 30 in the final dozen games in 2017.
“I kind of figured it was probably going to take a little bit of time with some of the new pieces,” Zimmer said Friday. “I figured that was going to be the case. Everybody forgets we were 2-2 last year at this time. We will just keep fighting and playing. Just because everybody expected us to be 4-0 at this point or whatever it is, doesn’t mean that’s realistic.”
Of course, every aspect of the defense is interconnected. The Vikings first-down rush defense has also been weaker, allowing 4.2 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per pass attempt, up from 3.5 and 7.0 a year ago. Opposing teams have faced 2nd and 6 or shorter 43 percent of the time, a 5 percent increase from 2017.
The vaunted third-down defense? It’s still been good. The Vikings are sitting fifth in the NFL at 31.1 percent, not far off from last year’s historic mark of 28 percent.
But the downs preceding it have gotten dramatically worse, to the point where teams are avoiding third downs entirely.
It’s worth pointing out that through a quarter of the season, passing is up across the NFL thanks to improving quarterback play and rules that favor the offense. Twenty-four quarterbacks have a passer rating of 90 or better. Compare that to just nine quarterbacks in the 2008 regular season, albeit in a larger sample size.
Nonetheless, it’s unsettling for Vikings fans to see their defense so susceptible with a must-win against Philadelphia around the corner.
“It’s harder to get sacks,” said Richardson, “guys are scheming so you won’t be able to get sacks, quarterbacks are aware of that. too. In the schemes, it’s two-seconds-it’s-gone.”
Become a Zone Coverage Member Today!
