DALLAS — It looked as if Alexander Mattison had given the Minnesota Vikings a lead over the Dallas Cowboys with his 17-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter, capping a 75-yard touchdown drive on which the final 56 yards had come on the ground.
But not so fast.
An official review placed Mattison just inches outside the goal line, giving the Vikings what seemed to be an easy first and goal. But three plays later, head coach Mike Zimmer was confronted with his biggest decision of the night.
“We were going to empty the bullets here, tonight, one way or another,” Zimmer said postgame. “That was really the mindset going in.”
Irv Smith Jr. committed a crucial rookie mistake with a false start penalty from the 1-yard line, setting the Vikings back to the six. Two Dalvin Cook runs brought Minnesota back to the 1-yard line, but the Cowboys stuffed fullback C.J. Ham to set up fourth and goal from the two.
Over the past decade of football, eight teams have faced that same situation: trailing by less than a field goal and met with a fourth-down decision from the 1- or 2-yard line. Four out of the eight took the points. Four out of the eight went for it.
Zimmer’s situational decision-making had repeatedly been tested over the past few weeks. He regretted a 4th and 1 decision to go for it against Washington in Week 8. The following week at Kansas City, he opted to punt from his own 45 on 4th and 1. What would he do Sunday night, staring at a chip shot field goal to take the lead… but also an opposing offense that had just scored touchdowns on three straight drives?
This decision seemed like it was more about breaking the opponents’ spirit than any type of analytics chart.
“It just breaks your will,” Zimmer said about that drive. “That’s the one thing with football. It’s a tough sport, and if you allow people to run the ball like that against you, then it really deflates you, I think.”
The Vikings didn’t flinch, running it a 10th time in a row from the 2-yard line, trusting the method that got them there. After seven straight runs to the left, they pitched to Cook out to the right. Kyle Rudolph, Brian O’Neill and C.J. Ham all made key blocks.
“You get to the last couple plays and you’re dead tired,” said O’Neill. “But it’s good. If you’re tired, they’re tired, and we know that. We’ve got to have more drives like that and on the road. That’s what we’ve got to put together more of – long drives.”
Keep on Cookin’.#Skol pic.twitter.com/eKyEfbHg4R
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 11, 2019
Decision No. 2 to go for the two-point conversion was the second correct decision Zimmer made. The consequences of a miss were high, but the reward was an 82% winning probability, according to ESPN.
Over the last decade, 45 teams had been faced with that decision: Whether or not to go for two when leading by five in the third quarter. Only nine out of 45 had gone for it. Minnesota became the 10th. Cousins hit Kyle Rudolph on a play-action jump ball to give the Vikings a 28-21 lead.
“Two-point conversions are a little weird,” Rudolph said. “They really don’t do anything [statistically], but at that point in the game to go up by a whole touchdown — it came down to the end there. Without that two-point conversion, a field goal ties. Instead they needed a touchdown. So the two-point conversion may not show up in the stat sheet, but those two points were huge.”
Dallas was forced to play for a touchdown at the end instead of settling for three points and a tie, assuming Minnesota had taken the extra point for a 27-21 lead. Had the Vikings missed the conversion, the Cowboys could’ve won with a field goal.
But Zimmer’s boldness paid off with two aggressive coaching moves, which swung the momentum of the game.
