The Vikings’ are a near lock to make the playoffs based on Sunday’s results. But their seed could still change. Sam Ekstrom lays out the scenarios.
HOW CAN THE VIKINGS CLINCH A PLAYOFF SPOT?
Magic numbers aren’t discussed as much in football like they are in baseball, but we’ll use them anyway. The Vikings’ magic number is one. Any combination of one Vikings win or one Rams loss and Minnesota is in. Considering the Rams face San Francisco on Saturday and the Vikings finish with two home games — where they are unbeaten — it’s looking promising for the purple. FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Vikings a 97% chance to make the playoffs.
DO THE VIKINGS WANT THE SAINTS TO LOSE MONDAY NIGHT?
For those still holding out hope that Minnesota can earn a bye, the Saints either need to lose one game against Carolina in Week 17 (for conference record purposes) or two games total out of the final three. So yes, losing Monday to the Indianapolis Colts would help with that.
WHAT ELSE NEEDS TO HAPPEN FOR A BYE?
As we’ve said for a few weeks, the bye is only feasible if the Packers cooperate, which they haven’t. Because of the division record tiebreaker, Green Bay will still lead the division even if the Vikings beat them Monday night. Minnesota’s only hope is for Green Bay to lose an inexplicable game at Detroit in Week 17 to a Lions team that’s lost seven straight. Even if that happens, the Vikings would still need the Saints to fall in line. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Vikings have a greater chance to win the Super Bowl (5%) than get a first-round bye (3%).
IS A 5-SEED POSSIBLE?
Indeed, it is. Moreso today than it was a week ago. Because the San Francisco 49ers lost on a last-second touchdown to the Atlanta Falcons, they flip-flopped with the Seattle Seahawks from the top seed down to the top Wild Card. At 11-3, the 49ers are still a game up on the Vikings, but they don’t possess the head-to-head tiebreaker like Seattle did.
Basically, Vikings fans should be cheering for the Seahawks to beat the 49ers in Week 17 at CenturyLink Field. A victory there would clinch the NFC West, relegate San Francisco to a Wild Card and give the Vikings the tiebreaker over the 49ers based on common games, assuming the Vikings win out. Minnesota would be 3-2 against the Falcons, Seahawks, Packers and Redskins, while San Francisco would be 2-3 — another reason why their loss to Atlanta hurt.
Instead of having to travel to Green Bay or New Orleans and face a team with 11 or so wins as the 6-seed, the 5-seed gets to face the NFC East champ, who will have no more than nine wins.
