It’s nearly impossible to log onto the Interwebs these days without tripping over an NFL mock draft. They’re everywhere – first-round mocks, full, seven-round mocks, team-specific mocks, mocks with trades, mocks without trades.
Mock… yeah!
Ing… yeah!
If only it were as easy to locate hand sanitizer, ventilators, or, I don’t know, maybe round up PPE for healthcare professionals who are on the front line trying to save lives from this global pandemic as it is to find a mock draft.
(Deep sigh)
Sorry, it’s easy to get distracted by issues of real-world importance at times like this.
Listen, I’m not here to suggest mock drafts are a bad thing. I’m not mad at mock drafts; I’m just pointing at them. On the contrary, they’re actually a good thing — a nice distraction. They promote discussion and analysis. These days, the NFL Draft cottage industry is just about the only fresh sustenance sports junkies have to consume. It also reinforces the point that the NFL doesn’t have an offseason. Or if it does, it lasts for about 23 minutes on some random Tuesday in February.
Along with the myriad mocks you’ll find around every corner of this here place we call the world-wide-web, football fans needn’t look far for other forms of draft content. ‘Tis the season after all.
Zone Coverage is no exception.
A generous chunk of the Vikings coverage herein contains rich and frothy draft speculation – should the Vikes focus on wide receiver, offensive line, cornerback or maybe defensive line? What about a quarterback? There are so many holes to fill! Which players are the best fits? Might they use all that draft capital to trade up in the first round? That’s a hot one, huh?
Or how about – and hear me out for a sec — will the Vikings actually trade down, out of the first round, rather than up in the draft?
That’s one scenario we don’t hear a lot about. It’s certainly not as sexy as trading up into the top-10 or -12 picks for a blue-chip difference-maker. However, trading down is a possibility with a draft-pick gunslinger like ol’ Rick Spielman at the controls. Nothing is off-limits. Anyone who’s familiar with the Vikings knows about Spielman’s propensity for making moves on draft weekend. To trade down and out of the first round, however, would be unprecedented for Spielman. He’s better known for trading down to accumulate draft capital in the latter rounds of the draft.
There are a few examples of the Vikings trading down in the first round under Spielman’s watch, but in both cases, they only moved down one spot. Check out the draft pages at Pro Football Reference and you’ll recall that in 2012 — Spielman’s first year at the helm as Vikings GM — he moved back from the third overall pick to the fourth pick, to select Matt Kalil. The Vikings obtained the Browns’ fourth-round selection (118th overall) to move down the one rung. Later, the Vikings traded back up into the end of the first round to draft Harrison Smith at 29th overall in a deal with the Ravens. Spielman sent them a second-rounder (35th overall) and fourth-rounder (98th) in return.
Then in 2014, Spielman moved back one spot in the first round in another deal with Cleveland, from the eighth overall pick to the ninth pick, and selected Anthony Barr. The Vikings picked up the Browns’ fifth-round pick (145th overall) in that deal. Once again, the Vikings traded back up into the end of the first round – this time to take Teddy Bridgewater at 32 in exchange for a second-rounder (40th overall) and a fourth (108th overall).
Indeed, Spielman has traded back into the first round a handful of times, most notably in 2013 when he traded a second, third, fourth and seventh-rounder for the 29th overall pick to net Cordarrelle Patterson. That whopper netted the Vikings’ third first-round selection that year (joining Xavier Rhodes and Sharrif Floyd).
Though we have few true comps to make with Spielman’s Vikings, trading down later in the first round — in the vicinity where the Vikings are slated to pick this season with the 22nd and 25th overall picks — is pretty common.
Several apples-to-apples comparisons can be found by just looking back one year to the 2019 NFL Draft.
- The Ravens dealt the 22nd overall pick to the Eagles for the 25th overall pick plus a fourth-rounder (127th overall) and a sixth-rounder (197th).
- Then the Colts traded the 26th overall pick to Washington for a second in 2019 (46th overall) and a second in this year’s draft.
- A few picks later, the Seahawks dealt the 30th overall pick to the Giants for a second (37th overall) plus a fourth (132nd) and a fifth (142nd).
- Then the Rams topped things off by sending the 31st overall pick along with a sixth-rounder (203rd) to the Falcons for a second (45th) and third (79th).
NFL teams allegedly adhere to – or at least pay some attention to – a trade value chart when negotiating transactions during the draft. Said chart assigns a value to each pick in the draft. The numeric value for the No. 1 overall pick is 3,000; for the second overall pick it’s 2,600; and so on. The 22nd overall pick held by the Vikings in this year’s draft is 780. Their 25th is 720.
Applying a little math to some of the above examples… first to the 2013 Patterson deal:
Using the chart to tabulate the results actually shows the Vikings made a fair trade. The Vikes acquired 640 points (Patterson) for 648 points worth of picks.
The 2019 first-round examples:
- The Ravens traded away 780 points (the 22nd pick) and received 776.4 points in return: the 25th pick (720) plus the 127th pick (45) plus the 197th pick (11.4). That was a really fair deal.
- The Colts traded 700 points for 440 points last year plus a second-rounder this season, which turned out to be the second pick of the second round (34th overall). That’s another 560 points. Oops! That’s a 700-for-1,000 trade. Advantage: Indy.
- The Seahawks traded 620 points in exchange for 605 points from the G-men.
- The Rams exchanged 609 points for 645 points from the Falcons.
The Vikings will be right in this range a few weeks from now – positioned in a part of the first round that included four trade downs just last year alone. Per all the Internet draft wonks, there’s plenty of similarly graded talent in the 20-to-50 range of this year’s draft.
Knowing that last year teams were wheeling and dealing in the 20-32 range, that this draft has a pretty stacked top two rounds, and Spielman isn’t afraid to make moves, suggests there’s a strong possibility the Vikings will be moving down with at least one of those two first-round selections.
Should the Vikings’ murky salary cap situation be a consideration in this? Eh, probably not. Granted, they don’t have a ton of cap room… and picks will cost them less the further they move down. But at least the Vikings aren’t on the verge of getting slapped with overdraft charges by Roger Goodell like the Chiefs apparently are. This final point is merely something to consider as an added benefit of moving back for the Vikings. It wouldn’t be a primary motivation for doing so.
So, should the Vikings move both picks or just one? Move up with one and down with the other? How about trading down with both instead of packaging both to move up? Or maybe they should stand pat with both picks. The possibilities are seemingly endless.
It might be time for some more mock drafts.
Mock… yeah!
