Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks: 10/24

Photo Credit: Gary Cosby Jr/The Tuscaloosa News via USA TODAY Sports
Locks

Temple/Memphis over 70 (-110): If I was an oddsmaker lining this total, I’d make it in the 80s. Seriously. Temple’s two opponents this season, Navy and South Florida, are bottom-12 in YPG and bottom-9 in PPG, yet their offenses flourished against the Owls with 31 and 37 points respectively. Facing Memphis, they’re up against the No. 3 yardage offense nationally that also scores 38 PPG. Memphis is also, wait for it, dead last in yards allowed. With both QBs in this game completing 70% of their passes, I expect early fireworks, plus points in garbage time for Temple after Memphis pulls away. This could and should be a textbook example of a rocking chair over.

North Carolina (-15) vs North Carolina St (-110): I know it’s an in-state rivalry and the tendency is to go with an underdog when they’re a ranked team getting more than two touchdowns. But this NC State team is a dog with fleas. Two of their wins were by four total points, and they were gifted seven turnovers in the other two. Now, their starting QB Devin Leary is out and they have to travel to an ornery Tar Heels team. I trust Mack Brown to whip this team into shape and bounce back from a sloppy and embarrassing loss. The last time State went on the road to a quality ACC opponent with a high octane offense, they lost 45-24 against Virginia Tech, and the defense has been vulnerable all season allowing over 31 PPG. UNC won this matchup 41-10 last season, and I’d expect something similar this year.

Marshall (-16.5) vs Florida Atlantic (-110): This one might seem a little random, but I love what this Marshall team is doing this season. They’re definitely the best defense you haven’t paid attention to, bottling up the run and even holding Appalachian St to just seven points. Meanwhile, their 15th ranked rushing attack just keeps coming at you and can suck the life out of a team quickly. FAU on the other hand has only played one game this season, and needed to come from behind at home against Charlotte. Replacing Lane Kiffin with Willie Taggart is not a fair trade, and a road trip to a hot Marshall team will expose the significantly weakened offense. Conference USA is down this year and Marshall smells blood, having won their two conference games by 24 and 18 both on the road. I expect them to be focused and motivated here. I’ll take Marshall 42-14, if I had to be specific.

Degenerates

Alabama (-21) at Tennessee (-110): Yikes, it’s been a rough last six quarters of football for Rocky Top. Just when it looked like Tennessee had finally turned the corner this season, they blow it. Bad time to have Alabama come to town. The Crimson Tide has been dominant in this series, and we all know how much Saban beats up on ex-assistants. Plus, Tennessee has yet to name a starting quarterback this week, which makes me think we’ll see plenty of freshman Harrison Bailey. The Tide have the best offense in the country, and I don’t see how a weak Vols offense with a freshman QB can come close to keeping up. Bama has won the last four matchups by at least this number, and the last 13 straight by an average of 25. With a high total of 66 despite Tennessee’s offensive struggles, Vegas is telling you a blowout is in store.

UCF/Tulane over 73 (-110): UCF had such a weird hiccup against Tulsa three weeks ago that I’m not sure the market has recovered. They had 26 points early in the 3rd and then fell on their face. They have scored 50 PPG in their other three this year, so you can argue it was out of character. Now they get a Tulane team who struggles against fast pace offenses, giving up 49 points to Houston and 37 to a depleted SMU team. Tulane can’t stop the pass (305 YPG allowed) and UCF can’t stop passing (439 YPG) so this has all the makings of a track meet. After blowing a 21 point lead last week, something tells me UCF keeps the pedal down until the final whistle. The weather will be hot and humid, so expect defenses to tire out and a total to land in the 80s or above.

Ohio St (-26) vs Nebraska (-110): OSU won this matchup 48-7 last season, one of seven conference wins by at least this spread. Nebraska should improve this season with another year under Scott Frost, but there were too many departures on this team, especially on the defensive front seven, to think they can stop Justin Fields and Trey Sermon. The Buckeyes are No. 5 in the polls, facing a shortened season, and have to make up for their late start in the CFP race compared to the teams whose seasons are already underway. They can’t afford to leave anything to chance, which Fields and coach Ryan Day are well aware of. Nobody in the conference wanted to play more than that duo, so watch for them to come out with something to prove.

Miami (-11.5) vs Virginia (-110): The Hurricanes looked a little sloppy last week in a hangover spot after Clemson blew them out, but they still won by this exact number against a Pitt defense built to stop what Miami does best: run the ball. In comes Virginia, who followed up their own Clemson beatdown with two 17-point conference losses, and may be without starting QB Brennan Armstrong. The key stat here is UVA’s run defense giving up 174 and 179 yards in two games against teams not known for their great rushing abilities. Miami’s 2-headed monster of D’Eriq King and Cam’Ron Harris should run wild, and if elite TE Brevin Jordan is healthy this could get out of hand in a hurry.

Tiny Nick is 78-53 (+19 Units) since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Gary Cosby Jr/The Tuscaloosa News via USA TODAY Sports

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