Locks
Wake Forest/North Carolina over 66 (-110): Don’t get in front of this Tar Heels offense right now. They’re averaging over 48 PPG in their last 3 games. Wake Forest is no slouch on the offensive side of the ball either, as they’re scoring 37 PPG on the season. The Demon Deacons have the edge on defense in my opinion, with good performances in their last two games, but they still allow 410 YPG.
North Carolina has a great QB, two terrific wide receivers, and a two-headed monster at the running back position that will be too much for Wake to handle. Given that the Heels can’t stop a nosebleed on defense, and that this will be pristine weather conditions, I expect to see the final score get well into the 70’s or beyond.
2-Team, 6-Point Teaser Appalachian St -10 & San Jose St -10 (-110): Georgia St. hasn’t beaten anyone decent this season, and they they were blown out 51-0 by a quality Coastal Carolina team two weeks ago. This is a mismatch that App St. should be able to cruise in. They have their biggest game of the year next week at Coastal Carolina, so just in case they’re looking ahead, we’ll tease this line through several key numbers.
It’s time to start paying attention to what San Jose St. is doing. Last week’s win at San Diego St. was incredibly impressive, and with a backup QB no less. They’ll easily move the ball against a bad UNLV team. The Rebels have lost every game by double-digits, and the Spartans have won every game by double-digits, so let’s move this line to 10 and cruise to a win.
Marshall -24 (-110): Middle Tennessee St. is walking into a buzz saw here. This week is the 50th anniversary of the 1970 Marshall team plane crash. Emotions will be running high in Huntington for this one, and veteran coach Doc Holliday will have the Herd ready to blow the doors off the Blue Raiders.
Middle Tennessee has the 9th worst run defense in the country, and it will be a disaster against a Marshall team who comes at you with a powerful rushing attack. Middle Tennessee has played two games against teams with strong defenses and lost both: 42-0 to Army and 47-14 to Troy. Now they’ll face Marshall’s elite defense that allows less than 10 PPG. Everything about this situation sets up for a blowout, so lay the points with confidence.
Vanderbilt/Kentucky under 42.5 (-110): Vanderbilt is in contention for the worst Power 5 team in the country, struggling on both sides of the football, but importantly only scoring 12 PPG. Kentucky meanwhile makes its living on defense, allowing 19 PPG in the high-scoring SEC.
It’s also looking like the Wildcats starting QB Terry Wilson will miss this game, slowing an already weak Kentucky offense. Combined, these teams have played in seven games this season where the total has landed below this number. I just don’t see how either team puts up points in this spot and would expect something in the area of a 21-7 finish. It’s a low total, but it’s that low for a good reason.
Degenerates
Oregon @ Washington St. +10.5 (-110): The early week move pushed this line from 7.5 all the way to 10.5, and I’m going against the steam in this spot. Oregon’s win last week was deceiving: Stanford was missing their starting QB and top wide receiver. They still moved the ball well against an inexperienced Ducks defense and missed four field goals, making the final margin look bigger than it should’ve been.
Washington St., meanwhile, was impressive on the road last week, hanging 38 on Oregon State. New Cougars coach Nick Rolovich knows how to produce points, and they should have a fairly easy time against a weakened Oregon defense. With a high-powered offense getting double-digit points at home, this is a good spot to back the dog.
Hawaii/San Diego St. under 53 (-110): This is a low total for a Hawaii game considering how fast they play, and public money is coming in to drive the total up. Sounds good to me since sharp money has been pouncing on that line move. San Diego St. is coming into this game upset about their costly loss last week, and they will be looking to lean on their physical run game and defense.
That’s bad news for Hawaii. They struggle against physical teams, as evidenced by their 31-7 loss to Wyoming. San Diego St. will be able to run all over this defense that allows 227 rush YPG. I’m looking for this to be a fairly non-competitive game where the clock bleeds in the 4th quarter and keeps the total under.
South Alabama +15.5 (-110): This is a great spot to grab points and fade the public. Louisiana as a ranked team at home will get public attention, and they are giving far too many points with how they’ve performed this season. Their 6-1 record is something of a mirage given that their average margin of victory is only 6.5 points, and most of those wins are against the weakest teams the Sun Belt has to offer.
The South Alabama defense has kept them in most games this season, and I think Desmond Trotter can help keep them in this one. Two touchdowns plus a little extra cushion is plenty for me to back the Jaguars in this spot.
Tiny Nick is 15-7 (+7.1 Units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
