Locks
Cincinnati -13.5 (-110): This Cincinatti team is really, really good. They’re especially good against teams similar to Houston, beating SMU and Memphis the past two weeks by a combined 68 points while stifling the high-powered offenses consecutively. Meanwhile, Houston has played two quality opponents in BYU and UCF, losing both by a combined 40 points. The Bearcats are on a mission right now, with an outside shot at the playoffs. I didn’t understand why they were only laying 7 last week to Memphis, and this is almost as stunning, especially against a weaker opponent. This should be 20, so lay anything around 2 TDs with confidence.
Liberty/Virginia Tech over 67 (-110): You know it’s 2020 when Liberty has a top 25 football team. The problem with Liberty is they haven’t played a single legit offense, but they’ve still allowed 35 points to Southern Miss and 34 to Florida International. That does not bode well for traveling to play a Virginia Tech squad that has put up 38 or more in all but one game and has Hendon Hooker and Khalil Herbert running wild lately. I don’t know if anybody stops anybody in this game, so it should be back and forth for awhile. But I would think that Tech is not happy to fall out of the rankings, only to see a tiny in-state school replace them. The Hokies should make a statement in this game with what they do best: score.
Coastal Carolina -18 (-110): I might be getting too enamored with this Chanticleers team, but I have to roll with them at least once more. You simply can’t ignore their 5-0 ATS record in FBS games, or the momentum that they have. Against this South Alabama squad, their defense will shine again as the Jaguars struggle to score on anything other than terrible defenses. I look at the Jaguars game against UAB as a big indicator since that’s a very strong defensive team who won at South Alabama 42-10. Nobody is stopping Grayson McCall right now, and it definitely won’t be this Jaguars defense that allows 244 passing YPG against a schedule without many passing teams.
Degenerates
Maryland/Penn St. over 64.5 (-110): Looking back at history, James Franklin likes letting his teams take out frustrations in the form of blowouts (8-2 ATS run following a loss), plus he’s notoriously conscious of the line in his games. But, I think the best play here is counting on points. With a QB in Taulia Tagovailoa who finally seems to have put it together, Maryland has the ability to score plenty against a Penn St. defense missing key pieces due to COVID opt-outs. That could lead to the dreaded backdoor cover, which helps over bettors. I see both teams over-performing the married spread and total (around 45-20) given Maryland’s truly awful defense and a desire by the Nittany Lions to run up the score. You don’t see perfect weather like this during November in Pennsylvania often either, so capitalize in this spot.
Notre Dame +5 (-110): Look, Clemson doesn’t need this game. They know they have a fairly easy path to the ACC title game after this week, given that they’ll have Trevor Lawrence back. Notre Dame needs this game, however, because even if they navigate their tougher remaining schedule and get to the ACC title game, only a 2-0 record versus Clemson will get them a playoff berth. With Lawrence out, the Irish will have a chance to turn it into a defensive battle, where I believe their defense has the edge. In a tight game that could come down to the wire, I don’t want a freshman QB making his first road start against a top defense. I’ll take the experience of Notre Dame, getting points at home rather than roll with a team missing the Heisman trophy winner. I’ll even sprinkle a little on the moneyline because I think they’re a live dog — they have to be for any hope of a playoff berth.
Tiny Nick is 94-70 (+18.1 Units) since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
