Locks
NCAA Basketball – Nebraska @ Creighton -14 (-110):
I love Creighton in this bounce-back spot after a frustrating and tough loss at Kansas. This Nebraska team really struggles on offense, shooting only 40% from the field and sub-30% from behind the arc. That won’t get it done against a Creighton team that can fill it up from anywhere and has also shown a strong defense this season.
What’s important here is what we saw in Nebraska’s home loss to Georgia Tech: A team that couldn’t match up against strong guard play and a mobile post player. Creighton has an elite backcourt led by Marcus Zegarowski, and Christian Bishop is the most athletic forward that the Cornhuskers have seen yet. Creighton is simply the far more talented team, and they need a statement game after their Kansas loss. I think the Bluejays roll in this one by 20 or more.
NCAA Basketball – Iowa State @ Iowa -12.5 (-110):
Iowa is in a letdown spot coming off a big win over North Carolina and now has their in-state rivalry game, so fade the Hawkeyes, right? Wrong. There’s bad blood in this series after Jordan Bohannon signed his shoes and left them at midcourt after winning at Iowa State last season, so the Hawkeyes better be ready to back that up. I think they can here because this is a focused and motivated team that should be able to get back to their preferred style of basketball after having to deal with UNC’s huge frontcourt.
There just isn’t anyone on the Cyclones roster who can handle Luka Garza, and that will allow Iowa to get their inside-to-outside flow going again as we saw in their first three games. Look, Iowa just scored 93 on one of the better defensive teams in the country, so I expect it to be raining 3s again as the Hawkeyes pull away for a comfortable win. It pains me as an ISU alum, but Iowa has been a cash machine so far this year and I can’t ignore that.
Degenerates
NCAA Football – Arizona vs. Arizona State under 56 (-110):
I don’t see any reason why this should be such a high total. Arizona State is a very defensive-oriented team and QB Jayden Daniels has led a conservative offense in their two games this season, both of which have come in under this total. Arizona has collapsed offensively after their QB Grant Gunnell was hurt on the first play two games ago.
They’ve managed to put up 23 points since that injury against much worse defenses than the Sun Devils have, and both games came in well under this total. I just can’t imagine how this weak Wildcats offense manages any meaningful production here. And with the total sitting on the primary key number for this level, there’s a lot of value in playing the under in this spot. I would check on Gunnell’s status before the game because a confirmation of him being out will drive this number down considerably.
Tiny Nick is 49-24 (+22.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
