Locks
NCAA Football – Alabama (-20 1st Half) @ Arkansas (-110):
The full game side in this game of 32 points is just too much, especially since Nick Saban doesn’t historically cover on numbers that big. I’m also expecting Alabama to want to get this game over with and move on to the SEC championship and CFP as healthy as possible, so their foot won’t be on the gas much late in the game.
But I still want an opportunity to take advantage of this historic Tide offense and how the team has been rolling lately.
Their average margin at halftime of the past five games has been 23.8 points, and that includes much tougher defenses and better teams than what Arkansas has. After a surprising start to the season, the Razorbacks have come down quite a bit. I look at their game against Florida, a similarly explosive offense to Alabama, where they surrendered 35 points by halftime and 63 on the game. I think Alabama can name their score here, will want to pad stats for their Heisman contenders before resting them, and will be up big before the break.
NCAA Football – USC -3 @ UCLA (-110):
UCLA is extremely lucky to have won their last two games, benefiting from a QB injury in one and a missed tying PAT in the other. If those breaks had gone the other way and the Bruins were 1-4 instead of 3-2, I think we’d see this line much closer to where I make it at USC -7. The Trojans started slowly this year, a result of QB Kedon Slovis just not clicking with his receivers. But they’ve figured it out in their last two wins where they also covered the spread by a wide margin.
USC just has too much size and athleticism at WR for the UCLA defense to keep up with, plus the highly-touted Trojan defense proved last week it can handle a mobile QB like Dorian Thompson-Robinson with ease. This number is far too short for what is still a big talent gap between these teams, so in a rivalry game with no fans, I’m rolling with the more talented squad.
NCAA Basketball – Cincinnati @ Tennessee -7 (-110):
I’m disappointed that I didn’t pull the trigger on Tennessee in their first game, thinking that like a lot of top teams they’d need a game to find their footing. Well, this is a really impressive team led by four returning starters and the best recruiting class they’ve ever had. John Fulkerson does it all for the Vols as the offense runs through him, but the defense they showed, allowing only 47 points and getting 12 steals against an experienced Colorado team was the most impressive part.
With no Jarron Cumberland this year, I’m not seeing how Cincinnati finds much offense in this game, especially after struggling to shoot in their loss to Xavier which is the only quality opponent they’ve faced. I like Tennessee to continue the lockdown defense here, while also finding more offensive rhythm in their second game, so this seems like a double-digit win for the Vols.
NCAA Basketball – Texas A&M-CC @ Texas Tech -25.5 (-110):
We had the right read on Texas Tech in their last game against a very good Abilene team that gave the Red Raiders a scare. I think they get back to their usual ways of blowing teams out here though. Prior to the last game, Tech had been winning against their cupcake opponents by a minimum of 32 points.
I still don’t think Abilene gets enough credit for how good they are, which is causing another overreaction to that result which is reflected here. Corpus Christi has only played one quality team this season, a 37-point loss at SMU. The Islanders really struggle to score, even against their weak competition so far, averaging only 60 PPG and shooting 37% as a team. Against an elite Tech defense looking to make a statement after a close call, this has all the makings of a blowout by 30 or more.
NCAA Basketball – Oregon -7 @ Washington (-110):
This feels like a reasonably short price to be laying in a game between teams headed in the complete opposite direction. Washington has been a mess, with three blowout losses to start the season and then their best player, Nahziah Carter, making it official that he’s leaving the team. The Huskies weren’t really competitive in their other conference game against Utah, a much less talented team than what they’ll face here.
Oregon definitely started off looking rusty, but has shaken that and looked very impressive in their past three games. This is mostly a fade of Washington because they simply aren’t scoring, ranked 288th in adjusted field goal percentage nationally (only 25 teams are worse in case you were wondering). This just feels like a runaway game to me where the talent and motivation of the Ducks will overwhelm the lack thereof for Washington.
Lay the points in what should be a blowout.
Degenerates
NCAA Football – LSU +23.5 @ Florida (-110):
Classic look-ahead spot for the Gators here. The SEC championship looms next week and their minds will be on Alabama and that unstoppable offense. As explosive as Florida has been this year, they’re only 4-4-1 ATS and have only beaten one team by more than this number — and that was Vanderbilt so it barely counts.
And while LSU is simply not good this year, it’s hard to believe this situation isn’t ripe for a backdoor cover, which has already happened to the Gators three times this season. Florida doesn’t need this game, their thoughts will be on next week, and they’ll want to get this game over with quickly and keep their best players healthy.
Give me all these points with LSU, especially on the right side of several key numbers.
NCAA Football – Illinois vs. Northwestern Under 41 (-110):
An overlooked impact of this year’s COVID schedule is regular-season games being played this late into the year in outdoor stadiums. The weather in Evanston will be nasty with rain and wind expected. That will only reinforce what should be a low-scoring affair anyway between a weak Illinois offense averaging 21.7 PPG, and a strong Northwestern defense allowing only 15.3 PPG.
The past two meetings in the rivalry have also gone under this total as Northwestern built towards its defensive identity. Northwestern struggles to run the ball but should find lanes through an Illini defense allowing 196 rushing YPG. That will allow them to control the clock so they can get this game over with and on to the Big 10 Championship. In a cold, windy slop fest where neither team has much to play for, everything points towards minimal scoring.
Tiny Nick is 51-24(+24.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
