Locks
Minnesota vs. Illinois Over 147 (-110):
I actually think the Gophers are in big trouble in this game, but at the risk of angering the local fan base, I’ll look at another profitable angle here. What I’ve seen out of Illinois in their last three games against top competition is both an elite offense (10th nationally in FG%) and a somewhat exposed defense (83rd in defensive rating). Tonight’s matchup should be fairly easy for the Illini since I think the Gopher defense was exposed in its only power conference game against Boston College.
Minnesota ranks fairly high in overall pace at 62nd nationally, and we may have finally had a Gabe Kalscheur sighting last game. I think he and Marcus Carr can produce against an Illini defense that has struggled to guard the perimeter. But after a tough loss on Saturday, I expect Illinois to come out firing to open Big 10 play and rely on their strong offense against an overrated Gopher defense. I think we’ll see a lot of 3s and layups in this one, and that always aids an over bet.
Western Carolina @ VCU -14.5 (-110):
Western Carolina is a paper tiger, with their 6-1 record inflated by two non-D1 wins and three overtime victories, all against poor teams. For example, they needed OT against North Carolina A&T in their last game. They’re in for a rude awakening tonight against a VCU team that beat NC A&T by 36 last week. That win came without KeShawn Curry, who may be able to return tonight from a shoulder injury and three-game absence.
Even without him, the Rams have been winning handily, as their defense has held teams to 51.6 PPG in those three wins, while also generating almost 11 steals a game and absolutely locking down the 3-point line. That’s bad news for a Catamounts team that is very reliant on shooting threes. I think VCU’s excellent defense continues here and Western Carolina gets exposed in what should be a 20-plus point Rams win.
Furman vs. Alabama Over 152.5 (-110):
Alabama has been inconsistent this year scoring points with a 75 PPG average, but if you throw out their games against elite defenses in Clemson and Stanford, they’re at 85 PPG. That’s where they want to be in the fast-paced system of Nate Oats, and that’s what I expect to see tonight.
Furman does not have a strong defense for Alabama to worry about, but they are a great shooting team at 50% from the field, plus Clay Mounce and Alex Hunter take and make a lot of threes, which leads to the Paladins 85.8 PPG production. Combining a volume shooting team in Furman with a fast-paced team in Alabama always generates high possessions and high scoring. I think both these teams approach or exceed 80 in this one, so take the over.
Degenerates
Loyola Chicago vs. Wisconsin Over 127 (-110):
I was looking ahead to this game as a potential under play, and when the total opened 135.5 I was going to stay away. Apparently, everyone was thinking ‘under’ and the number was driven down to where I think it’s a strong over bet at this point. Wisconsin games are averaging 137 points, and the only one that snuck under this total was an 82-42 win over UW-Green Bay.
This Loyola team isn’t Final Four good anymore, but they can play, and their D1 games this year average 141 points. I also think because they’re a good team, they can keep this relatively close and maybe benefit the over with some free throws towards the end. Mainly, though, I’m making this play on a market overreaction because no total should move that much so fast, especially in a game where the scoring metrics don’t support it, so make this play against the steam.
Appalachian St. +19 @ Tennessee (-110):
This is both a system and a trend play for me. This should be a rock fight of a game, with points at a premium, which is backed up by the low opening total of 129. With a low total game, a team getting nearly 20 points holds a lot of value in the married side-total projection. When you consider that projection would put Tennessee in the neighborhood of 75 points, that’s where the trend play comes in. The Vols have looked extremely shaky at the offensive end, shooting an abysmal 33.9% from the field.
It’s only on the strength of their defense, holding teams to 51.5 PPG, that they have two 9-point wins on the year. App State is another defensive-oriented team, holding their D1 opponents to 62.3 PPG in regulation. I see a grind-it-out affair here as both teams control the clock and struggle to shoot, and don’t think Tennessee deserves to be laying 19 points to anyone — much less in that style of game.
Tiny Nick is 58-28 (+28.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
