Tiny Nick is 63-29 (+32.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
LOCKS
NCAA Basketball Tennessee Tech/Tennessee Under 129.5 (-110): This Tech squad might be one of the most offensively challenged teams in the country. In addition to their 0-7 record and 59.7 PPG average, they’re the 308th best 3-point shooting team in the country and check in at 289th from the free throw line. Tennessee, meanwhile, is the sixth best field goal percentage defense in the country, just got done holding Appalachian State to 38 points and allow 47 PPG. The Volunteers still haven’t quite figured it out on offense either, only shooting 39% from the field and 30% from deep. I really don’t see Tech getting to the average points that Tennessee allows, which creates a lot of room to get under this total here considering the offensive woes of the Vols.
NCAA Basketball Iowa St/West Virginia Under 145.5 (-110): The points metrics with Iowa St. in their short season are heavily impacted by their game against Iowa, a 105-77 loss. Aside from that predictable result, all of their games have stayed under this number. West Virginia meanwhile seems to be getting too much credit for their offensive eruption against Richmond on Sunday where they shot an incredible 58% from the field and 57% from deep. I see the Mountaineers as due for a regression toward their season averages of 42% and 34%, respectively. But I think the key to this game will be rebounding, as the duo of Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe will clean the glass for West Virginia against a Cyclones team that is the 10th worst rebounding team in the country. That will allow the Mountaineers to eliminate second chance points and dictate tempo, slowing this game down to where the under presents great value here.
DEGENERATES
NCAA Basketball Drake (-5.5) @ South Dakota (-110): This is a rematch game, as these teams played on Black Friday with Drake winning by 16, and those games have seen drastic point swings back to the team who lost. But this Drake team is too good, and this South Dakota team is too bad to worry about that trend. Drake is 6-0 on the year including 4-0 ATS, with 20-plus point wins in their last four. Drake shoots it really well, and you’d think guard Garrett Sturtz can’t miss, he’s shooting an incredible 72% from the field. The Coyotes finally got a win last weekend in a weird Dakotas tournament, but they simply aren’t good enough to hang with this Drake team who already knows how to beat them.
