Locks
NCAA Football – Alabama -10 1H vs Florida (-110):
Alabama first half was an easy winner last week, and I’m going back to that well for a lot of the same reasons. First off, Alabama wants this game over and done with so they can get ready for their playoff game in 13 short days, as healthy and rested as possible. Second, this Gators defense will offer little to no resistance against the Crimson Tide juggernaut as it’s been torched all season by every team with a semi-competent offense.
Third, I think Alabama could name their score here, but once they do ease up it should give the Florida duo of Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts a chance to score points in a hurry and threaten a backdoor cover on the full game side of 17. I fully expect Nick Saban to make his usual statement in this game with a cocky coach on the other side, but to do it early and emphatically.
NCAA Basketball – Iowa vs. Gonzaga Over 170 (-110):
Vegas needed to think in terms of NBA totals for this game, and they didn’t do it. Both of these teams just overwhelm their opponents with an avalanche of shots, as Iowa gets up 69 attempts per game with Gonzaga right behind them at 66 per game. With Iowa shooting 51% from the field and Gonzaga shooting 55%, it’s a recipe for scoring 100.5 and 93 PPG respectively.
I’m hoping Jalen Suggs is healthy for the Zags not only because he’s so fun to watch, but because he is probably the most important piece of their offense for pushing the pace, especially in transition where Iowa is the most vulnerable defensively. After Iowa put up 93 against North Carolina, I’m fully convinced they can do that to anyone, and seeing Gonzaga open the season with 102 against Kansas tells me they might even be the better offense. This game will be played in the 90s or above, so I love this over.
NCAA Football – Boise St. vs. San Jose St. Over 56 (-110):
Boise State has been a strange team this year with curious absences from quarterback Hank Bachmeier, but the one constant has been high scoring games. If you throw out their game last week in nasty Laramie, Wyo. weather, their games average just under 70 PPG. San Jose State is a very capable offensive team, scoring 30.3 PPG behind senior QB Nick Starkel.
Their defensive stats are a bit misleading as they allow a significant amount of yards but have benefited from playing the most offensively inept teams in the Mountain West. That is not what they’ll face in this game as Bachmeier will find a lot of holes in a weak pass defense. If last year’s 52-42 Boise win is any indication, we’re in for a lot of points here, especially under perfect conditions at the neutral site in Las Vegas.
Degenerates
NCAA Football – Minnesota vs. Wisconsin Under 47 (-110):
This play is a huge fade of Wisconsin’s offense that has been just awful recently. The Badgers have been missing their top three wide receivers and a top running back in their past 3 games, causing QB Graham Mertz to look utterly lost. Incredibly, Wisconsin has only scored 20 combined points in those three games, with the average final total landing at 26 points. They’ll still be missing those players in this game against a Gophers defense that looked serviceable against Nebraska, only giving up 17 points.
With Rashod Bateman opting out for the Gophers they’ll be even more focused on running the football, but probably won’t find much room against a Wisconsin defense allowing the 3rd fewest rushing yards per game nationally. I see both offenses struggling here, and can’t envision this game even getting past 40 total points, so take the under. I would put this in the locks but unders are not fun so this one is for the true degenerates that are willing to sacrifice their Saturday fun for a good chance at a dollar.
Tiny Nick is 65-30 (+33 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
