Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/22

Photo Credit: Wendell Cruz (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NCAA Basketball – Purdue/Iowa Over 153 (-110):

The reason this total is in the 150s is due to Purdue’s tendency to play slower, but that’s simply not possible against an Iowa team whose average possession lasts 14 seconds (Iowa scored 106 on a turtle-slow Northern Illinois team). The Hawkeyes are able to fully dictate the style of the game that way and at some point, the other team has to play catch-up. Purdue has shown flashes offensively: They shoot it at 47.5%, just scored 88 on Notre Dame, and actually put up 70 against an elite Clemson defense.

But Iowa is coming off a frustrating loss where they shot 4-of-22 from deep, missed 12 free throws, and still scored 88 points. I would imagine Iowa also wants retribution for two bad losses to Purdue last season, so I see them trying to score as much as possible. And if they get anywhere near their season average of 98.7 PPG, it simply doesn’t require much by the other team to get over this total.

NCAA Basketball – North Dakota @ Drake -14 (-110):

This is a really ugly mismatch and I don’t understand why the line isn’t in the 20s here. North Dakota struggles to shoot from everywhere including the charity stripe, has a very negative assist-to-turnover ratio, and is 283rd in rebounding, so it’s no wonder they’re 1-4 ATS outside their conference.

They simply won’t be able to keep up with this Drake team that’s 9th in adjusted field goal percentage, scores 86.3 PPG, and beats their D1 opponents by an average margin of 23 points. Drake has also played three games against the Summit League, winning those games by an average of 18 points, and now they face the last-place team. I love how this Drake squad is not afraid to blow teams out, and I expect another wide margin in this one.

NCAA Basketball – West Virginia @ Kansas -1.5 (-110):

Like a lot of Big 12 games this season this will probably be a brawl, and if you’re a fan of defense this might be the game for you. I’m a fan of the Kansas defense after their big win over Texas Tech last week. The Jayhawks allow sub-40% field goal percentage, a number that’s even more impressive considering Gonzaga shot 65% against them in the season opener. West Virginia had a case of the lookaheads and probably should’ve lost their last game to a poor Iowa State team.

The Mountaineers shooting regressed to the mean in that game, and they should struggle even more against a KU defense that can defend at an elite level in both man and zone. I see Kansas as the better team in this one and it’s just hard to win at The Phog, even with limited fans, so I’ll lay the short home price.

NCAA Basketball – UNC -1.5 @ NC State (-110):

This number opened with NC State as the short home favorite of -1.5 but flipped overnight to the Tar Heels. An overnight move through zero is a good indication of where the smart money is going on a game and I agree with the move. NC State has struggled to score in their last two games, both 69-point efforts after averaging 90 PPG to start the season.

After a two week layoff, they’ve also looked tired in those two games. UNC will look to exploit that with their preferred style of getting out and running to score in transition. The Heels should also be able to bully NC State down low: The Wolfpack are the 245th best rebounding team compared to UNC, who are 9th best. UNC has been a profitable team to start the season, and I like them on such a short price here.

Degenerates

NCAA Football – UCF/BYU Over 76 (-110):

Why didn’t this BYU team, which was undefeated at the time, get any love from the CFP committee? Because they hadn’t played anyone, especially no one who had an offense as evidenced by their 14.6 points allowed average. Meet Dillon Gabriel and the No. 5 scoring offense of UCF, who has had four games go over this total and are 8-3 to the over on the season.

BYU lights it up as well, they’re the No. 6 scoring offense and have scored 40 or more points eight times. I also see this as a showcase game for BYU QB Zach Wilson who will want to improve his draft stock, so I doubt the Cougars take their foot off the gas. Combine that with a UCF team who never lets off the gas, I think we can manage 11 touchdowns to get over this number.

NBA – Warriors +7.5 @ Nets (-110):

Don’t take this the wrong way, I’m just as excited as everyone else about the return of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and I can’t wait to see how they play together but two words: Steph Curry. 7.5 points is a lot and I am not ready to count the Warriors out just because Klay Thompson went down again. We don’t know enough yet so I’ll keep this one in the degenerates section but take the points and roll with the Warriors tonight. Or just take the over.

Tiny Nick is 73-31 (+40.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks. 

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Photo Credit: Wendell Cruz (USA TODAY Sports)

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